RTE: "Poll suggests Heather Humphreys leading Presidential race" - totally misleading.

[Tuscany]

HH now favourite but this is a very close contest according to the betting markets.

CC is 10/11 with Boyles to have most 1st preferences; I think that this is very short. A lot will depend on how much of the SF vote goes to her.

In the Red C poll, subject of this thread (some very good detail in it), CC had 17% and she had 15% of SF supporters already in that.
SF had 21% in that poll; CC would be very happy to get 60% of that 21%.

Steen, Delahunty and Casey had 15%; not sure many of those will choose CC in the absence of their preference.

CC would need close to 40% to top the poll; its hard to see where it will come from.

That poll also showed that JG was only getting 56% of FF supporters; HH was getting 29% of FF supporters.

Of course, the MoE is much higher when dealing with smaller samples, but still an indicator of people's thinking at a point in time..

There should be a poll in the next few days.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

@Tuscany Very interesting. Taking the poll in OP we have FF 22, FG 20, CC 16 and SF 20. So CC needs 6 more than FF from SF to close the gap. So plausibly if SF were not in that poll and we assume SF have indicated their preference for CC, 12 would have gone to CC, 4 to FF, 2 to HH and 2 to the rest. So yes I agree it would seem to need 60% SF support for CC to top the poll.
The choreography of SF’s backing for CC makes that entirely possible. If SF had simply been part of the original crowd backing her it would have had much less influence. As it happens CC is almost perceived as the SF candidate.
But before taking 10/11, I think CC will fare worst in the TV debates.

 

[bkenn14]

Very interesting. Taking the poll in OP we have FF 22, FG 20, CC 16 and SF 20. So CC needs 6 more than FF from SF to close the gap. So plausibly if SF were not in that poll and we assume SF have indicated their preference for CC, 12 would have gone to CC, 4 to FF, 2 to HH and 2 to the rest. So yes I agree it would seem to need 60% SF support for CC to top the poll.
The choreography of SF’s backing for CC makes that entirely possible. If SF had simply been part of the original crowd backing her it would have had much less influence. As it happens CC is almost perceived as the SF candidate.
But before taking 10/11, I think CC will fare worst in the TV debates

Unless FF have changed not looking like they have seeing all the blocking of other candidates supporters might vote for Jim only,

But before taking 10/11, I think CC will fare worst in the TV debates.

CC Faring worst in a 3 horse TV Debate might be enough for FF supporters to try blocking Heather from winning from FF transfers,

 

[bkenn14]

The current incumbent (and his devoted, attached, permanently simpering spouse) might beg to differ with you there

You show an extreme and severe lack of respect and courtesy and rudeness which is downright disrespect full to the President wife it reflects very badly on you and the people who gave you a like,

 

[joe sod]

I don't think we can take polls seriously anymore in Ireland after the haimes they made of the GE and exit polls with FF support seriously under represented, also how did they get the referendums totally wrong, they weren't just a margin of error but a whole football stadium out. Why was their no serious analysis of how they got them so wrong?

 

[bkenn14]

I don't think we can take polls seriously anymore in Ireland after the haimes they made of the GE and exit polls with FF support seriously under represented, also how did they get the referendums totally wrong, they weren't just a margin of error but a whole football stadium out. Why was their no serious analysis of how they got them so wrong?

Well with Maria Steen out of the way the margin might improve,
This time round I don't expect people to be ashamed to say they voter for Jim Gavin of FF,sorry FG,

 

[JoeRoberts]

RTE news : Gavin says vision to ensure everyone has voice in society http://www.rte.ie/news/presidential-election/2025/0928/1535729-presidential-election/

 

[JoeRoberts]

This may cost him some votes if really true

 

[bkenn14]

This may cost him some votes if really true

I am interesting in hearing why you think so,
Jim is only repeating what most FG and FF supporters say at the doorstep for the last few elections, if you bothered to check out,
The FF and FG party of old have long been sidelined,

With only 3 candidates and a large amount of voters , I think Jim is on to something if he can pull some votes from Catherine all 3 could finish up very close together, Heather may try to take advantage of what Jim Just said this will make her sound harsh costing her some votes not Jim,

I am interested in your thinking on how this is going to cost Jim votes, seeing Catherine and Jim are expressing the same views in public this will take transfers from Heather,

 

[JoeRoberts]

But its clear that the left and far left parties want to exclude certain voices. Hence we only have 3 candidates. If they now say they will give a voice to other people they will lose votes. Seems simple to me.

 

[bkenn14]

But its clear that the left and far left parties want to exclude certain voices. Hence we only have 3 candidates. If they now say they will give a voice to other people they will lose votes. Seems simple to me.

To win or have a chance of winning he has to find a way or think he has found a way to stop transfers going to Heather,

The Question I was asking is how do you think Heather will gain from what JIM said, any attack by Heather on Jim will stops the soft FF voter from giving Heather no 1,

 

[bkenn14]

But its clear that the left and far left parties want to exclude certain voices. Hence we only have 3 candidates. If they now say they will give a voice to other people they will lose votes. Seems simple to me.

To win or have a chance of winning he has to find a way or think he has found a way to stop transfers going to Heather,

The Question I was asking is how do you think Heather will gain from what JIM said, any attack by Heather on Jim will stops the soft FF voter from giving Heather no 1,
Heather has to stay quite,

 

[Tuscany]

poll in OP we have FF 22, FG 20, CC 16 and SF 20. So CC needs 6 more than FF from SF to close the gap

Hi Duke, but JG had only 18% in that poll, so margin is less. (The FF 22% was JG 15% + BK 7%, and JG went up only 3%, when BK was excluded).
I think CC has a great chance of being ahead of JG.

At this stage, turnout could become an issue. That could affect CC, because, traditionally polls tend to overstate SD and SF support.

 

[Tuscany]

To win or have a chance of winning he has to find a way or think he has found a way to stop transfers going to Heather,

To win or have a chance, he has to be in the top two on the first count! which is looking more challening.
Otherwise, it's his transfers that will decide the outcome.

 

[bkenn14]

To win or have a chance, he has to be in the top two on the first count! which is looking more challening.
Otherwise, it's his transfers that will decide the outcome.

I know that,
his only chance is to bring Down Heather first preference vote to get ahead of Catherine if Catherine goes out she will put Jim in,
Get a feeling we will know better after tonight both are discreetly trying to lower Heather first preference vote,

 

[bkenn14]

At this stage, turnout could become an issue. That could affect CC, because, traditionally polls tend to overstate SD and SF support.

unless Heather's Supporters think she is home and dry and do not come out to vote

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

CC won that easily. HH second.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

CC won that easily. HH second.

I didn't see it like that but the bookies agree with you.

HH stayed the same.
Catherine Connolly went from 3.75 to about 3.25
Jim Gavin when from 3.15 to about 4.15

 

[bkenn14]

CC won that easily. HH second

She held her own not sure she had an outright win
She was very careful not to damage transfers if she comes in 1st or 2nd,
I liked the way she sidestep the Trump question, even gave him a little praise, to avoid the minefield trap,10 out of 10,
She possibly put a stamp on how she will conduct the rest of her campaign which will not be easy to attack,

 

[Brendan Burgess]

I don't usually agree with Fintan O'Toole but this is a great article. And it must be very difficult for him to be attacking the candidate of the Left.

Fintan O’Toole: Catherine Connolly should keep her inner Basil Fawlty under wraps

Accusing our EU allies of being proto-fascist warmongers is not a winning strategy

www.irishtimes.com