They dont have to move at least on 1st preference... really need a poll that asks about transfer intentions also. Assuming Gavin is eliminated before Humphreys how many 2nd prefs will go to her is going to be key, or vice versa.
RTE: "Poll suggests Heather Humphreys leading Presidential race" - totally misleading.
- Thread starter Brendan Burgess
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Most transfers outside of Dublin will go from Jim To Heather,not so sure about Dublin Jims Dublin Vote will split between Catherine and Heather,
Outside of Dublin Most of Jim vote will go to Heather no one sees Jim as a real FF supporter , next best option is giving Heather a no 2
If FF ran Bertie FF would have an excuse for doing bad, Get the pop corn ready,
I expect Heather to Win, only Gareth Sheridan can put a spanner in the works,
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Sister Sara
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My sense is that there are many in the Kelliher and Ahern camps that are wholly dissatified with Martins handling of this. I think Gavin will struggle.
That leaves a shoot-out between Humphreys and Connolly.
SF are bidding on a win for Connolly that will embolden the left and show a unified approach may actually be able to break the perpetual FF/FG presence in government.
If Connolly doesnt win, I'd imagine MLMcD to stand down before next GE.
I don't Think You have got it correct , I think but I haven't Checked it out lately last time out SF got around 6.5% of first preference vote,
This time around if SF ran there own man/woman and Catherine Connolly Got several times the SF vote she would be in trouble,
The FF party and its leader will be in deep trouble if Catherine get away more 1st preference votes than FF I cannot see a way back unless to go in with FG fully,
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Sister Sara
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wha'?
in the last presidential election SF got around 6.5 % very low if I remember correctly
Haven't checked it out and not going to bother ,
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Duke of Marmalade
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Settling down to a 4 horse race (apologies to our equine friends). Note that I can cash out now for €3.39. I will hold out for a HH win. 
Sister Sara
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Catherine Connolly - It looks like a few insider Shinners may have got ahead of the announcement!
Duke of Marmalade
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@Sister Sara And I thought you were a Betfair novice. Good spot but market liquidity was very low so the most that would have been up for grabs is maybe two cups of coffee 
Sister Sara
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You might be mixing me up with @Marsupial.
Duke of Marmalade
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No I just have a prejudice that folk of a certain gender are more into the The Great British Bake Off and similar stuff. But then maybe I should not read too much into your pseudonym.
You have just given me a very persuasive reason to vote for CC! It is imperative that M-L remain in charge of SF for the next General Election!
and I thinking Governments loose election, just don't be surprised at who might cosy up to her come next election for the good of the Country if the numbers fall a certain way,
seeing how far FF and FG have moving to the left on policy,
Very dangerous things, loose elections. They should always be fastened securely to the back of your pulpit so they can't fall off.
Duke of Marmalade
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HH now favourite but this is a very close contest according to the betting markets.
Heather Humphreys should win easily, It really is FG running 2 candidates I see Jim Gavin going out first most transfers going to Heather outside Dublin,
Leo Varadkar Saying I appointed him to the Chair of the Citizens Assembly, I Actually thought Gavin was one of us A Fine GAEL SUPPORTER Maybe he goes between the two parties and is not a bad thing , is enough to keep the FF supporters from coming out to vote which should be enough to bring JIM in last and his vote mostly going to Heather,
You Can hear Heather saying Jim if you are a real FG supporter you would know the only thing that matters is Loyalty and I am the only one FG can trust to win so do the honors'' and act like a good running mate and bring in the votes from the FF Constituency,
Leo Varadkar Saying I appointed him to the Chair of the Citizens Assembly, I Actually thought Gavin was one of us A Fine GAEL SUPPORTER Maybe he goes between the two parties and is not a bad thing , is enough to keep the FF supporters from coming out to vote which should be enough to bring JIM in last and his vote mostly going to Heather,
You Can hear Heather saying Jim if you are a real FG supporter you would know the only thing that matters is Loyalty and I am the only one FG can trust to win so do the honors'' and act like a good running mate and bring in the votes from the FF Constituency,
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Duke of Marmalade
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I think and hope you are right. The Aras is not a retirement home for GAA managers nor for those who think Hamas have a "context".
Or people who like to bite the hand that feeds us.
I support Heather,
I am also well aware FG and for that matter FF 20% core vote total 40% is made up of around 50% of givers and the other 50% support comes from people who have a handy life living off the Givers in both parties and never want to see this ever changing,
It is just FG and FF are more clever and skillful in a way that is not obvious to the 50% of givers,
Now I am off to spend some of my pension money on breakfast and coffee with my FG and FF retired Friends,
I am sure we will have a laugh and chat at how subtlety FG and FF with supported from the Givers made sure the Givers had no one else to vote for President,
After the 24 of Oct the Aras will have a giver and a taker
we know who to vote for and why,
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The current incumbent (and his devoted, attached, permanently simpering spouse) might beg to differ with you there.
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