RTE: "Poll suggests Heather Humphreys leading Presidential race" - totally misleading.

@Sister Sara Betfair have belatedly included Fierce Doherty in the betting. The top 5 in the betting now account for 98% of the possibilities so I'm afraid no longer any free coffee on offer.
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Sister Sara said:
I'd expect that to drop 5.0 if he announced tomorrow.
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You might be right. I think he would shift places with CC in the market. CC needs SF support and I think her price will lengthen considerably if not endorsed by them. And it is really hard to see how Mary Lou could keep a str8 face and call an endorsement of CC a game changer.
So the smart money would buy Fierce now and sell him immediately (if) he is selected as a candidate.
 
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- MLMcD

So reading between the lines - MLMcD has, at most, one last chance to lead SF into power to achieve the aims above. She will undoubtedly require the support of the left, Labour, Soc Dems etc.

If Pearse Doherty is selected it effectively splits the left vote and could side-line the Labour and Soc Dems campaigns for Connolly. That won't go down very well with them and come the next GE Sinn Féin will have its old frozen crutch - transfers - hindering it once more.

On the other hand, if MLMcD wants to show herself as a leader not just of SF but of the left, with the real prospect of forming a government coalition, then backing the Labour and Soc Dems candidate for Áras in Connolly may go someway to thawing the transfer (un)friendly tag.

The bigger prize is government.

SF for Connolly. Thats my call.
 
Marsupial said:
Confused <dot> com.
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Buy him at 20 now, That costs 1. Mary Lou makes the game changing announcement that Fierce has given up on ever being a minister or even replacing Her. Fierce price falls to 5. Lay 19 at 5. If he wins you are quids in - you win 19 on your buy and lose 19 on your Lay . If he loses you win 4.8 on your Lay (19/5) and lose 1 on your Buy - net profit of 3.8 less commission of 2%.
 
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Sister Sara said:
So reading between the lines - MLMcD has, at most, one last chance to lead SF into power to achieve the aims above. She will undoubtedly require the support of the left, Labour, Soc Dems etc.
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The Soc Dems are, effectively, middle class SF. That was made abundantly clear in statements made by elected SD TDs both before and after the last General Election. It's also clear that Bacik would sell her soul to get into power, which is probably why she's backing Connolly; she needs a political 'win' of some sort.
 
Steen has 12 nominations, we are told , at present. Adding in the 2nd HRae (13) and the 4 II would put her very close to nomination.

Steen getting on the ballot paper could be more of a gamechanger than anything SF does. She has the potential to take 4/5% of FF (esp) and also FG. Their supporters are typical of the voter that she would appeal to.
SF has also a mixed approach to social issues and lost 2 TDs over these campaigns. So, there is potential for support there also for her.

Steen had 5% already in that informative Red C poll last week (she is a way more serious candidate than Sheridan).

The significance of her getting nominated and getting towards mid teen % on the first count, is that it is then more likely that there will be significant grouping of candidates on the 1st count.

The important thing is then to avoid getting eliminated; it could be as difficult to name the first candidate to be eliminated as the winner. But somebody big could depart early.

Steen is now 6/1 with bookies; JG is now joint favourite with HH.
Marsupial said:
The Soc Dems are, effectively, middle class SF.
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Excellent point. People sometimes see SDs as being very similar to Labour; however, their support base is quite different than the old Labour/Green supporter, and has more in common with SF younger voters.
 
Marsupial said:
The Soc Dems are, effectively, middle class SF. That was made abundantly clear in statements made by elected SD TDs both before and after the last General Election. It's also clear that Bacik would sell her soul to get into power, which is probably why she's backing Connolly; she needs a political 'win' of some sort.
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So how do you see it? SF to nominate their own candidate or get behind Connolly?

If SF nominate their own candidate then, imo, its an attempt to beat down on Lab and Soc Dems try eat into their votes for the GE.
I think that would be a mistake on their part.
 
I don't know how to read SF saying There Candidate Will be a fluent Irish speaker or something to that affect, Is This Catherine Connolly or somebody else,
I cant see them running an already elected Candidate in case they do badly in the election,
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
WOW!!! SF is backing CC. What a game changer?
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Probably comes across as underwhelming but in practice it clearly aligns almost the entire Dáil opposition against the FF and FG candidates.

I cannot see Gavin or Humphreys winning without a tacit understanding between both camps to transfer to one another to keep Connolly out. In effect, Leo with his "I thought he [Gavin] was one of us" may have inadvertently prophesised the formal merger of FF and FG, as opposed to the informal merger that is in place today.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
WOW!!! SF is backing CC. What a game changer?
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Indeed. I suppose that she couldn't risk SF losing yet another popularity concert, as the ice that she's skating on is already very thin.

But supporting CC will appeal to what can be politely described as the lunatic fringe of the Irish left.

Mind you, if she wins, the ensuing Galway West by-election will be fascinating.
 
odyssey06 said:
The next poll will be interesting.
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Possibly it will take a few days before we get a poll showing movement from FF supporters to Heather 28% already moving in this direction,
Cannot see FG supporters moving to Jim,
Jim attacking Catherine will damage his Dublin base, which is not FF leaning by the way,
Heather still the one to beat,
 
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