What a totally misleading headline!
I assumed from the headline that they had asked people which of the three Presidential candidates they were voting for.
But the poll also included Mary Lou McDonald and Billy Kelleher , neither of whom are running, so the poll is totally out of date.
You may be a little hard on the pollsters, I think.
That’s a Red C poll (on the state of the parties), which Red C do every month. They took a break for the summer and that’s the first one since.
It made sense for Red C to do research on the Presidential picture, when doing the party poll.
If you look at the detail of the poll (on Red C website or Business Post), Red C also did a poll excluding BK (just JG for FF) and what was of interest is that JG only got 3% of BK’s 7%. (That may not have been explained in the RTE article).
Also, the poll shows Presidential candidate support v party support – HH is 4% above FG support; MMcD is nearly on a par with SF and CC seems to have all the leftish vote.
MMcD on 20% is interesting given that CC is below her on 17% and a lot of the CC transfers would tend to go to MMcD. You'd wonder why SF HQ didn’t ensure that she ran because on these figures, she had a chance.
So I thought that was quite an interesting poll.
It wouldn’t make sense to have a poll for a party candidate eg a ‘SF candidate’ - MMcD would poll better than other SF candidates – a bit ahead of Doherty, I expect, who is now getting mentioned (he was ploughing!)
A long way to go yet, and a few more opinion polls before the day but, at the moment, it looks like the final two should be JG or HH versus SF or CC and JG/HH transfers would elect the other.
Steen getting on the ballot paper would alter the first preferences more so than Sheridan, imho, and make it more intriguing.