RTE: "Poll suggests Heather Humphreys leading Presidential race" - totally misleading.

[cremeegg]

I don't usually agree with Fintan O'Toole but this is a great article. And it must be very difficult for him to be attacking the candidate of the Left.

No problem for Fintan in the circumstances.

The fundamental question in Irish politics, particularly for those of us of Fintan's generation, is 'How much do you loath SF'. No where is this seen more clearly than in AAM,

In Fintan's case, the answer is, as much as possible, so it is no difficulty for him to reject a left wing candidate if it means he can be opposed to SF.

 

[cremeegg]

Having missed out on the benefits of a mis-spent youth I am struggling to understand this from Paddy Power. Can anyone convert it to probabilities. Thanks

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Ignoring the bookie's margin...

Catherine's chances of winning are 10/13 = 77%

Heather's are 2/7 = 29%

Total: 108% - 8% is the bookie's margin - so reduced both by about 8%

Think of a 5 horse race, where each has a 20% chance of winning or 1/5

The fair odds would be 4/1 each.

But the bookies will make them 3/1 each for their margin.

 

[Marsupial]

The fundamental question in Irish politics, particularly for those of us of Fintan's generation, is 'How much do you loath SF'. No where is this seen more clearly than in AAM,

It's seen even more clearly in General Elections when approximately 80% of the voters consistently treat them with the distrust and contempt that they deserve. (And the sentiment can be seen even more strongly when studying the counts for the Seanad panels [where the electorate is much smaller and, arguably, more politically aware]. SF Seanad candidates are extremely non transfer-friendly.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Betfair's Exchange is easier as there is no margin



CC is 1/1.39 = 72%
HH is 1/3.5= 28%

 

[cremeegg]

So Catherine Connolly is the overwhelming favourite.

I suspect the reverse is the case among AAMers.

If my suspicion is correct I wonder why that might be.

 

[Purple]

The Irish electorate virtue signal in Presidential elections but vote with their brain in general elections. That's why Labour gets such a small vote in general elections but have delivered two of the last three (soon to be three of the last four) Presidents.


I worry about how the country will be perceived when we have an anti EU and anti American President who is more comfortable rubbing shoulders with dictators and supporting counties which support totalitarian ideals than democracies and countries aligned with the ideals espoused in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

 

[Marsupial]

I worry about how the country will be perceived when we have an anti EU and anti American President who is more comfortable rubbing shoulders with dictators and supporting counties which support totalitarian ideals than democracies and countries aligned with the ideals espoused in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.

Not much change from the outgoing tenant in the Big House.

Although hopefully she'll resist the temptation to employ any more convicted criminals when she relocates from Galway to the Northside of Dublin.

 

[cremeegg]

The Irish electorate virtue signal in Presidential elections but vote with their brain in general elections.

I have no doubt that there is some truth in this.

That's why Labour gets such a small vote in general elections but have delivered two of the last three (soon to be three of the last four) Presidents.

No, Labour put up a better quality of candidate.

When FF put up Mary McAleese a respected academic, she won. When they put up Sean Gallagher a wheeler dealer he lost. About their current candidate the less said the better.

 

[arbitron]

The Irish electorate virtue signal in Presidential elections but vote with their brain in general elections.

The same electorate who would have put Sinn Féin in power if the party had fielded enough candidates. The people who repeatedly put the likes of Lowry, Mattie McGrath, Rónán Mullen, Paul Murphy, 7rl in the Oireachtas. The ones who punish junior coalition partners and then return the bigger parties to power.

In 1990, Lenihan was leading until the Hillery tape came out. McAleese was hardly a virtue signal vote?

Michael D was well liked but not the favourite at the beginning - others imploding helped. For his 2nd go, he was incumbent and people were hardly going to vote for the self-declared racist who managed to lose spectacularly in two different constituencies in the 2020 general election, not to mention his failed MEP bid.

I don't think people are virtue signalling or stupid. The country may be more fiscally centrist and socially liberal and that could be reflected in different voting patterns depending on the job.

 

[Purple]

Labour put up a better quality of candidate.

Robinson wasn’t popular until RTÉ got behind her. I think she was an excellent President and I’m glad she was elected but she wasn’t a certainty by any means.

When FF put up Mary McAleese a respected academic, she won.

Not a strong field first time out.

When they put up Sean Gallagher a wheeler dealer he lost.

Only because RTÉ and the Shinners did an 11th hour hatchet job on him.
About their current candidate the less said the better.
I don’t have any strong feelings about him but I’d take him any day ahead of Putins apologist.

 

[Sister Sara]

Only because RTÉ and the Shinners did an 11th hour hatchet job on him.

He was a FF candidate purporting to be 'indepedent'. FF trying to pull a stroke and got caught out with a stroke.

Once the scam was exposed the media hacks behind his campaign huffed-and-puffed for about 2 years afterwards about the "unfairness".

All's fair.

 

[Purple]

The same electorate who would have put Sinn Féin in power if the party had fielded enough candidates. The people who repeatedly put the likes of Lowry, Mattie McGrath, Rónán Mullen, Paul Murphy, 7rl in the Oireachtas. The ones who punish junior coalition partners and then return the bigger parties to power.

They certainly aren’t all using logic and rationality but they are more likely to vote in what they see as their self interest in general elections.

In 1990, Lenihan was leading until the Hillery tape came out. McAleese was hardly a virtue signal vote?

See above.

Michael D was well liked but not the favourite at the beginning - others imploding helped.

As above, RTE got their man elected. Remember that when he was Minister for Galway he set up TG4 and gave RTÉ lots of sweeties.

For his 2nd go, he was incumbent and people were hardly going to vote for the self-declared racist who managed to lose spectacularly in two different constituencies in the 2020 general election, not to mention his failed MEP bid.

He wasn’t the only alternative but Micky D had the Public Sector Broadcaster behind him and the sort of media whitewashing that his pal Castro would have been proud of.

I don't think people are virtue signalling or stupid.

I don’t think they are stupid.

The country may be more fiscally centrist and socially liberal and that could be reflected in different voting patterns depending on the job.

Yea, virtue signaling.
We like to mouth off but won’t put skin in the game. We’ll wag our fingers but won’t put our hands in our pockets. We listen to a rich bombastic academic “activist”, with a property portfolio and more pensions than the occupants of a Greek retirement home, talk about inequality and injustice but turn a blind eye to his rank hypocrisy because he embodies so many of us.

 

[Purple]

He was a FF candidate purporting to be 'indepedent'. FF trying to pull a stroke and got caught out with a stroke

Sinn Fein and their buddies in RTÉ pulled the stroke and got away with it.

 

[Sister Sara]

Sinn Fein and their buddies in RTÉ pulled the stroke and got away with it.

True. But surely you can admit that Gallagher, a FF member since his days in Ógra FF and a former member of the FF National Executive and an advisor to FF Ministers and having been nominated by FF councilors, was the de facto FF candidate in 2011?

 

[Purple]

True. But surely you can admit that Gallagher, a FF member since his days in Ógra FF and a former member of the FF National Executive and an advisor to FF Ministers and having been nominated by FF councilors, was the de facto FF candidate in 2011?

Of course he was.

 

[Purple]

Gallagher received €130,000 in a settlement from RTE (paid for by the Irish people). If he'd been president he'd be getting around €200,000 a year from his pension now so probably money well spent.

Given the extremely generous pension I think there's an argument that candidates should be over 65 or 70 or if younger prove that they are terminally ill.

 

[Marsupial]

I think there's an argument that candidates should be over 65 or 70 or if younger prove that they are terminally ill.

Do you reckon that whichever granny wins the election will waive her State Contributory Pension? Because I'm sceptical.

The usual promise is that they'll donate it to charity. (But, as you and I know, charity begins at home!)


As for Gallagher's settlement, he may have received €130K, but the legal costs (which the Irish people also paid) may well have been higher.

None of the legal eagles involved [including Paul Tweed, Jimbo O'Callaghan SC and Paul Gallagher SC] come cheap.

 

[lff12]

We like to mouth off but won’t put skin in the game. We’ll wag our fingers but won’t put our hands in our pockets. We listen to a rich bombastic academic “activist”, with a property portfolio and more pensions than the occupants of a Greek retirement home, talk about inequality and injustice but turn a blind eye to his rank hypocrisy because he embodies so many of us.

There's a lot of truth in this.

 

[redstar]

Latest poll
HH - 20%
CC - 38%
BUT 42% Undecided. CC only needs 13% of this to win.

Is it all over now?