Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[Calina]

Surprised to see this headline in the Indo!

Good news from CSO on future homes demand..

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1687849&issue_id=14640

What are peoples thoughts? (Btw We're almost through 200,000 page views barrier..WooHoo!)

"[FONT=Verdana, Arial] It is clear therefore that demand will increase, therefore construction output needs to increase despite Ireland holding the record for housing output in Europe."[/FONT]

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Seems to me that there are a lot of "therefores" in that sentence, too many for my liking.

Oh wait:

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[FONT=Verdana, Arial] The Irish Home Builders Association (IHBA) say it can produce an additional 20,000 units per anunm, but it will require adequate zoned serviced land and updated regional planning.[/FONT]

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Hmm. Wonder if a IHBA press release was involved anywhere in the preparation of this story?
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An additional 20,000 units, so, say 120,000 units per year? Interesting. Do we really have that many people sleeping on the streets?
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[tententwenty]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial]
An additional 20,000 units, so, say 120,000 units per year? Interesting. Do we really have that many people sleeping on the streets?
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More like we are preparing for the return of the eastern continental United States to our shores...

 

[SHARP]

It'd surprise you. Where I work the average salary is about €60K.

What about it???

That certainly doesn't mean that they have 60,000 in cash in the bank - just there to splash out on a new suv????

Back to my point - there aren't many people out there that can pay cash for large items such as new cars, large holidays (10k+) without borrowing.

This borrowing is usually from re-mortgaging in one shape or form.

 

[Savvy]

One fact that the report raises is true, as things stand as of Jan 1st next year we will have 7m Bulgarians and 22m Romanians that will be able to come here to work.
The GDPfor these countries make Poland look rich( GDP in dollars: Poland 8655, Romania 5232, Bulgaria 3683-source IMF).
So there could be a big influx from these countries and a knock on to demand

 

[conor_mc]

That Indo article discusses inward migration and then makes this interesting statement of 'fact'.....

With two additional countries joining the EU in January next, this number will increase further.

Simple as that, not "may increase" but "WILL increase".

What about Germany/France/Sweden/etc opening up their labour markets after 2 years.... will a wider choice of destinations not affect the flow of inward migration at all? Will we put restrictions in place for the next two accession states that might limit the growth in inward migration?

 

[Superman]

Let's assume a population in Ireland of 4,000,000.
According to the IHBA there is an average 2.84 people per household
giving a grand total of houses of 1,408,451.
To reach the European average of 2.6, we would need a total of 1,538,461 which means we are currently "short" 130,010 houses.

Now, leave aside the fact that
a. Dwelling units in Ireland tend to have more bedrooms than other European countries, and so allow for higher people/household ratios.
b. Ireland has a younger population profile than Europe and children under 18 usually live with their parents,
c. There appear to be 240,000 units built in which noone lives.

Given that 90,000 houses are to be built this year, which let's assume were not moved into by the date of the Census.
That leaves us short 40,010 houses to reach the European average.

Additional accommodation is required for immigrants of course, however I fail to understand where the demand for the building of 90,000 houses next year and in following years is to come from.

Anyone have any suggestions?

 

[Duplex]

One fact that the report raises is true, as things stand as of Jan 1st next year we will have 7m Bulgarians and 22m Romanians that will be able to come here to work.
The GDPfor these countries make Poland look rich( GDP in dollars: Poland 8655, Romania 5232, Bulgaria 3683-source IMF).
So there could be a big influx from these countries and a knock on to demand

I understand that the new immigrants will be bussed to building sites and hotels and restaurants across the country as soon as they arrive. The dire shortage of labour in the low skilled service sector must be addressed. But seriously I think the government will announce restrictions on immigration from Romania and Bulgaria when they become member states.

 

[conor_mc]

Additional accommodation is required for immigrants of course, however I fail to understand where the demand for the building of 90,000 houses next year and in following years is to come from.

Anyone have any suggestions?

Speculation.

As I said before, low stagnant rents = no shortage of housing stock.

 

[Savvy]

What about Germany/France/Sweden/etc opening up their labour markets after 2 years.... will a wider choice of destinations not affect the flow of inward migration at all? Will we put restrictions in place for the next two accession states that might limit the growth in inward migration?

Sweeden allowed free movement from day one. Germany put them off for 7 years(with some exceptions)

 

[conor_mc]

Sweeden allowed free movement from day one. Germany put them off for 7 years(with some exceptions)

I was going by this not-exactly-definitive resource....

http://www.workpermit.com/news/2004_02_27/eu/working_restrictions.htm

Sweden
Sweden, like Denmark and the Netherland, Sweden initially intended to let migrants from the EU accession countries work without restriction, but they have changed their stance. The Swedish government is especially worried about "benefits shopping" in light of its generoous social welfare system. The existing liberal work permit scheme (requiring merely a job offer in a skilled position) will remain in place for at least two years, subject to approval by parliament.

Either way, Ireland was the only existing EU country to allow full and free access from day 1 to the accession states. This will change over time as the other 14 relax restrictions, offering the migrant worker a greater choice of destination.

 

[Borderlord]

Channel 4 news last Sunday had a piece about 40,000 Polish people sleeping rough around London and that a charity was willing to pay their way home on a one way ticket. There is only so many people we can give jobs to, I would not worry about people coming from Romania and Bulgaria as there will be no work for them.. Sure, in a few years we could be all heading off to Germany with the Romania's and Bulgarians looking for work.

 

[Savvy]

Either way, Ireland was the only existing EU country to allow full and free access from day 1 to the accession states. This will change over time as the other 14 relax restrictions, offering the migrant worker a greater choice of destination.

Not true the UK and Sweeden also(
[broken link removed])

 

[Raskolnikov]

Took a spin out, was very surprised to find that many of the houses in the estate I mentioned are actually Sale Agreed, noticed one or two signs have been taken down already. Anyway, here's the pictures, NOT 56K friendly.

http://static.flickr.com/95/243822850_b8ac62ee32_b.jpg

Entrance to the estate.

http://static.flickr.com/87/243822335_c5f5e74d98_b.jpg

Three For Sale signs as you enter the estate, two are already Sale Agreed.

http://static.flickr.com/43/243820530_06c76fc0e4_b.jpg

Four houses (only three viewable, the other sign), all Sale Agreed. You'll have to take my word about the other house.

http://static.flickr.com/83/243821842_d4c4aec49f_b.jpg

Another two houses for sale just around the corner.

By the way, the pictures I posted above are in the catchment area of about 40 houses, the rest of the signs are grouped in one's and two's, so not quite as dramatic.

There were another two houses right next door to each other with For Sale signs, both are now sold with the signs taken down. They are however still listed on myhome.ie

[broken link removed]=
[broken link removed]=

So all in all, a flurry of activity with lots of sales, sorry CelloPoint.

 

[Duplex]

Channel 4 news last Sunday had a piece about 40,000 Polish people sleeping rough around London and that a charity was willing to pay their way home on a one way ticket. There is only so many people we can give jobs to, I would not worry about people coming from Romania and Bulgaria as there will be no work for them.. Sure, in a few years we could be all heading off to Germany with the Romania's and Bulgarians looking for work.

You have a point.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0915/jobs.html

 

[room305]

One fact that the report raises is true, as things stand as of Jan 1st next year we will have 7m Bulgarians and 22m Romanians that will be able to come here to work.

From what I understand Ireland will not be extending its open door policy to Bulgarian and Romanian workers. One of the guys I work with is Romanian so he has looked into this fairly extensively (by which I mean he asked Noel Ahern).

Anyways, Bulgaria can't really spare any construction workers at present as they are all flat-out building apartments for the Irish fly-to-let brigade.

As an ad on the radio this morning informed me - "in Bulgaria, things are only getting started ..."

 

[HotdogsFolks]

One fact that the report raises is true, as things stand as of Jan 1st next year we will have 7m Bulgarians and 22m Romanians that will be able to come here to work.
The GDPfor these countries make Poland look rich( GDP in dollars: Poland 8655, Romania 5232, Bulgaria 3683-source IMF).
So there could be a big influx from these countries and a knock on to demand

The government has already said it won't be allowing Romanians and Bulgarians come here to work. "We have done our bit" was the quote I believe.

 

[Savvy]

Just coming up to speed on this a the moment and
not to stray off topic too much but we can put them off from coming in from day.You can only defer this date for seven years. as it was with the countries that joined in 2004.
So no large influx in January next year then, so that gives less credibility to the report in the Indo

 

[Jister]

The thing about the immigrants is that the whole of Europe will soon be open to them and geographically we are the furthest away. Look at when the Irish were going to America, most went to Boston and New York on the East coast, and fewer to the west coast. Once central Europe is open to them they will all migrate there and join in the building boom of building houses for themselves in these countries.

But of course places like Poland are now enjoying booms of their own and soon they will be attracting their people back from Ireland, the same way as the IDA have tried to attract Irish people back from the States in the past.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Gross salary of €60 doesnt mean you have 60k-100k cash to spend on a car. Seems unlikey even if you saved for a few years.

I'm talking about 60K NETT, many people would earn in excess of that. Plenty of new cars in the parking lot, never heard of one person who remortgaged to purchase. Usually it's a case of getting a motor loan combined with savings and selling the older model. Not to mention lots of builders and builders wives who have money falling out of their pockets.

 

[CelloPoint]

I'm talking about 60K NETT, many people would earn in excess of that. Plenty of new cars in the parking lot, never heard of one person who remortgaged to purchase. Usually it's a case of getting a motor loan combined with savings and selling the older model. Not to mention lots of builders and builders wives who have money falling out of their pockets.

Where do you work? The ESB or somewhere?