Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Discussion in 'Homes and gardens' started by miju, Jul 5, 2006.

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  1. room305

    room305 Frequent Poster

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    You think a drop in house building rates for 90k a year to 30k a year won't cause a recession? When they lay-off all those workers what will happen?

    Either the foreign workers leave for sunnier economic climes which will further depress housing demand or else they will stay, competing on price with Irish workers for the remaining jobs.

    Neither sounds like a recipe for a the-good-times-they-keep-on-a-rollin' type scenario.
     
  2. Arthur Daley

    Arthur Daley Frequent Poster

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    Well then maybe unemployment will rise to 97/98 levels again and we'll have more in common with our central European partners who have been funding this party for the last few years. If we expect 100k units a year to be a baseline that is to be sustained we're like the boy in the bubble anyway.
     
  3. conor_mc

    conor_mc Frequent Poster

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    Who expects 100k units per annum to be the baseline?

    I'm not sure where you're coming from here, but my point is that a drop in output from 100k to 30k could well be nothing short of economic armageddon....
     
  4. Dreamerb

    Dreamerb Frequent Poster

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    Possibly, although I think a lot of it would need work before it would be marketable. Point taken, though.

    Gah! Of course I did, mea culpa. Shall correct.

    But as regards this slow down in the market - I do think that's being somewhat overblown. My house has now been on the market for two weeks. In that time, at least 13 separate potential buyers have viewed it, there are four active bidders, and the current bid is 15k over the asking price with further viewings scheduled. Some of the bidders were so bullish they made offers on the spot at viewings. And all this, though we didn't put a disingenuous price on it (we set it at a level we'd have been prepared to accept, comparable to similar properties locally, and well above what we "needed"). Methinks current public sentiment is somewhat at variance from that on this thread... at least on my thoroughly unscientific sample of one!
     
  5. whathome

    whathome Frequent Poster

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    There's a poster called Green Bear making an excellent case for the change in sentiment for Irish property on this website:

    http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/index.php?showforum=16

    There are no price drops listed yet but I would imagine some will show up there in time.

    So much interest in the change in sentiment shows how the market is at an inflection point IMO.
     
  6. JayDub

    JayDub Guest

  7. JayDub

    JayDub Guest

    Which thread, seems Green Bear posted a couple dozen threads there.
     
  8. whathome

    whathome Frequent Poster

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  9. Arthur Daley

    Arthur Daley Frequent Poster

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    Isn't 30k a reduction to a normal sane level? Isn't there plenty of inefficiency built up in the Irish economy to cope within reason with the laid off construction workers? Ok maybe we can't buy as many BMs/Mercs, own foreign properties in Dubai & Montenegro, eat out every week etc given such a scenario. We weren't doing that 10 years ago. We'll have to get used to approaching in this country what is economic reality for most nations. What has gone on in the last few years is not realistic in the long term.
    If this economy cannot survive a moderating of housing supply then it's got fundamental issues and is doomed one way or the other. I just don't believe it's all that gloomy.
     
  10. MadPad

    MadPad Guest

    very interesting, thanks for posting your experience......
     
  11. room305

    room305 Frequent Poster

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    Yes.

    Inefficiency built up? I don't understand what you mean. The main drivers for employment are the civil service and construction. Tax is chiefly accrued through property sales. Manufacturing is in decline. Where are the laid off construction workers going to work?

    Well if we stop buying expensive cars, eating out or buying foreign properties, do you not think this will have a massive effect on our economy? I believe a period of rising unemployment, slowing production and a reduction in overall prosperity is generally referred to by economists as a recession.

    You are right. This economy does have fundamental issues. It's called a trade imbalance.
     
  12. Arthur Daley

    Arthur Daley Frequent Poster

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    Ok it's recessionary, but I think we all accept supply has to be cut back sometime. It's all about the degree of recession and the degree of falls in house prices. I'm only playing devils advocate here, but do we have examples of house market collapses of 20-50% in countries that entered recessions recently? I don't even think it was that bad in the UK in the late 80s early 90s, but I could stand to be corrected.

    I'm just trying to move the debate on to what next now that initial house price falls have been documented on here, and of course we are into real crystal ball territory
     
  13. JayDub

    JayDub Guest

    This week is going to be one interesting week. I'm looking forward to seeing how new car sales were in October, then the Daft report is due on Thursday.
     
  14. Brendan Burgess

    Brendan Burgess Founder

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    Sorry folks

    This thread has required a lot of moderation. I am closing the thread until the moderators have had a chance to review our policy towards the thread and the discussion of the prices of invidual houses.

    Please do not reopen the discussion in another thread. If you do, you will be banned from Askaboutmoney.

    Brendan
    Administrator
     
  15. Brendan Burgess

    Brendan Burgess Founder

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    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 8, 2006
    The moderators have decided to close this thread permanently for the following reasons:

    1) Nothing new has been said on it for a long time, so there is nothing to be gained by leaving it open
    2) There have been frequent breaches of the Posting Guidelines and many users were reporting these posts to the moderators
    3) The thread required a huge amount of moderators' time and we have better things to do
    4) Many people were posting exclusively in that thread and making no other contribution to Askaboutmoney

    But don't despair. You can find extensive, informed, articulate, balanced and entertaining commentary on the impending collapse of the Irish property market here.

    It would be a great addition to Askaboutmoney if someone would do a balanced summary of both sides of the argument for an increase or decrease in the price of Irish property. We would refer all genuine questions and concerns to such a post. If you do such a post, please email it to brendan@askaboutmoney.com first. Don't start a new thread yet.

    Brendan
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 8, 2006
  16. Brendan Burgess

    Brendan Burgess Founder

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    We have reset the post count for users so that any posts made in this thread are not included in their total post count. Consequently a small number of users have had their status changed from Frequent Poster to Registered User.

    Brendan
     
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