What would you tell your kids to study?

[faketales]

That has more to do with an over supply of non job specific graduates and an increase in remote working making it harder to train people with no previous experience than the more recent issue of AI eroding need for entry level jobs.

Another factor at play here seems to be a culture change where young people are more willing to quit if not happy.

Generally considered a power move (often made possible by living at home) but grads take a long time to train and actually be independently productive, if a company is sees high turnover before they become valuable and payback investment then they are less likely to invest.

All very well putting in two years if you get six more out of them. If they leave after two that’s money down the drain.

 

[Bow tie]

A few months ago I would have said teaching, the arts and trades. But with the earlier comment above, I do wonder if humanoids from uncanny valley will also shortly be capable of these, and cheaper.
I think high youth unemployment will be exacerbated by AI, as more junior tasks become automated. The question then is how does anyone other than AI really learn from the basics upwards.
If we are all destined to be people of leisure, how will society pan out, are the AI companies going to pay universal income? I doubt that.

 

[Purple]

A few months ago I would have said teaching, the arts and trades. But with the earlier comment above, I do wonder if humanoids from uncanny valley will also shortly be capable of these, and cheaper.

It very much depends on the trade. Most of what a Mechanic does on a new car is now effectively automated. Most engineering trades now require close to a degree level of technical knowledge and a high level of AI integration but a lot of construction traded are still closer to what thy were 20 years ago. That is particularly the case in wet trades such as brick laying and plastering. We are decades away from a robot rewiring or replumbing an old house, let alone plastering it or doing the joinery.
Teaching already requires a high level of AI integration. If you are a secondary teacher and you are not using AI then you aren't doing your job properly.
Arts degrees are not job orientated so that's a different discussion.

I think high youth unemployment will be exacerbated by AI, as more junior tasks become automated. The question then is how does anyone other than AI really learn from the basics upwards.

I think the real question is what will the new jobs look like.

If we are all destined to be people of leisure, how will society pan out, are the AI companies going to pay universal income? I doubt that.

The inevitable concentration of wealth, and therefore power, away from politicians and towards the new Tech Oligarchs with the inevitable erosion of democracy and real freedom is a different and much bigger issue. If the AI companies going to pay universal income we should remember that he who pays the piper calls the tune.

 

[faketales]

My bigger fear re. the construction sector is not automation but how the government (and public) respond to and downturn.

If spending needs to be cut will the government cancel most upcoming capital projects and put everything on hold. Even what would be more maintenance works were cut the last time. Combined with the housing drop off that left very little in Ireland for anyone in the construction sector. We are still paying the price years later.

However I can’t see that response changing. Where would a government (and public backing) tackle instead?

 

[joe sod]

plumber or electrician will never be short of work!

Thats because its a physical job, you can't do it working from home, you generally have to be at your workplace or site at 7am, at least at the start of your career. Robotics and AI can do clerical and desk based jobs relatively easily but not skilled physical jobs

 

[Purple]

Thats because its a physical job, you can't do it working from home, you generally have to be at your workplace or site at 7am, at least at the start of your career. Robotics and AI can do clerical and desk based jobs relatively easily but not skilled physical jobs

Exactly, but as we live longer how do we re-structure work and training so that after 30 years of that hard physical work people can stop and re-train? It is untenable to retire at 65 if we are going to live to be 95. How about being able to access a portion of your pension at 50 or so to fund 4 or 5 years of retraining so that we can then work on until we are 75?

 

[Bow tie]

With robotics already in surgery and fast catching up on gentle or complex physiology like hand usage and, for example, changing light bulbs, I'd have my doubts that trades are totally insulated.

 

[Setforlife]

With robotics already in surgery and fast catching up on gentle or complex physiology like hand usage and, for example, changing light bulbs, I'd have my doubts that trades are totally insulated.

I’ve worked in electronics and engineering for 30 years. The rule of thumb for moving to robotics and automation for a task is that for every ‘menial’ roles you save you need at least 0.5 much higher paid technical roles. Trades looking after compressed air, electrics and motors are going to grow if anything. The average person can’t work their TV, their doorbell camera or their oven properly, can’t change the battery in a move alarm. The idea they can run a home robot is crazy.

 

[joe sod]

With robotics already in surgery and fast catching up on gentle or complex physiology like hand usage and, for example, changing light bulbs, I'd have my doubts that trades are totally insulated.

Yes but surgery is a very high value situational activity, therefore it is worth putting in that huge investment to replace the surgeon with robotics. Also even though it is highly complex work it is essentially repeatable. You construct a highly specialised robot that is located in an operating theatre, thats essentially a car robot which we have had for many decades. The patient is located in the same location, the organs are generally in the same place, the task is repeatable, those are the ingredients for robotics

 

[Fortune]

The inevitable concentration of wealth, and therefore power, away from politicians and towards the new Tech Oligarchs with the inevitable erosion of democracy and real freedom is a different and much bigger issue.

So, we can expect the current American situation to spread worldwide?

 

[Fortune]

Robotics and AI can do clerical and desk based jobs relatively easily but not skilled physical jobs

Yes, there's no way a robot could weld a car or assemble electronics.

 

[Purple]

The rule of thumb for moving to robotics and automation for a task is that for every ‘menial’ roles you save you need at least 0.5 much higher paid technical roles.

Where I work we have invested in cobots (collaborate robots) for machine loading etc. There is a direct labour saving, a significant increase in output over any given 7 days and, just as importantly, the freeing up of labour to do higher value added activities.

I'm not sure what I would advise a young person to study in order to do those higher skilled jobs.
My advise would be to have good communication skills, be able to make eye contact, and be willing to learn. In most cases you can learn the rest on the job.

 

[Purple]

So, we can expect the current American situation to spread worldwide?

I think it already has. The EU is the last bastion of real democracy.

 

[Leo]

Anthropic's view is interesting, take a look at Figure 6 for sectors most exposed to LLMs and robotics today.

 

[ClubMan]

Anthropic's view is interesting, take a look at Figure 6 for sectors most exposed to LLMs and robotics today.

AI companies are far from honest brokers in this situation. I'd take their analysis with a hefty pinch of salt. Anyway they're all telling us that AI is probably going to wipe humans out so you'd think that this was more of a concern if you didn't think that there's a huge element of pre-IPO hype involved.

 

[Leo]

AI companies are far from honest brokers in this situation. I'd take their analysis with a hefty pinch of salt.

I'd usually concur but that study is far from the usual marketing nonsense or the suspiciously hyped releases on agents going rogue. What is of most interest there are the sectors they say are not exposed.

 

[ClubMan]

These are the same guys who can't seem (or deliberately don't want) to create an isolated sandbox that prevents their test agents from breaking out onto the internet. I'll stick to my skepticism.

 

[sonandheir]

replace the surgeon with robotics

In surgery they are not replacing surgeons with robots, the surgeons are directing the robots. So a surgeon will be able to do more precise incisions and faster than a human hand but the human is still in the loop. With most things this will speed up procedures and drive costs down. Therfore there will be more procedures and likely the same amount if not more surgeons. This will be replicated in many industries.
I personally think AI will create more jobs then it removes.

 

[financialtips]

For any of your kids who may like numbers or how things are constructed can i just put it out there that Quantity Surveying is a career that has served me well. There are now apprenticeship schemes which merge site/office time and college so you get paid to learn.

My own son is 15 and wants to go a trade route. Hes good with his hands and has chosen plumbing as he thinks too many young ppl are choosing electrical.

 

[Takado]

I’m a career coach. The clients I see that are doing the best right now are in fields reliant on empathy, ethical discretion and EQ over process. Therapists, Counsellors, Educators, Organisational Psychologists, Mediators (Labour Relations & Private Disputes). Pretty much anything healthcare delivery related. Not a commentary on pros\ cons of those roles, just that they’re best placed to avoid automation.