David McWilliams: "Bitcoin Betrayal"?

I think his point is that previous generations have had the opportunity to buy assets (property) at low prices which have subsequently grown significantly in value at the expense of the next generation.

Many Millennial and Gen X-ers have now been priced out of having the opportunity to get a slice of this pie, so some hoped that they could make a whole new pie instead.

Today, young people talk about their parents generation who bought a 3-bed semi for 20k that's now worth 500k. They're hoping that in 50 years young people will complain about how our generation were able to buy bitcoin for "only" 20k and amass great wealth as it went over 500k per coin.
"Previous generations" also including people now aged 45 who bought their homes at the peak of the market in 2007 and are only seeing the price they paid return now, you mean?
Or my parents who paid 13% interest on their mortgage back in the early 80s?
 
I usually hate the term "speculators" as it is mainly used by socialists now to describe the normal process of business investment, but it is completely correct here - people putting money into cryptos really are speculating!
I didn't realise I knew so many socialists after spending 30 plus years working in Swiss banking, who knew.
 
Very interesting thread, I just came across it.

Do the people who think bitcoin is worthless still think thats the case?

Curious to know
 
Very interesting thread, I just came across it.

Do the people who think bitcoin is worthless still think thats the case?

Curious to know
Bitcoin is obviously not worthless.
One bitcoin is currently trading at just under $27k at the time of writing.
 
Brendan in another thread referred to Crypto as being a bubble. It has been a bubble for many years now....


How long should a bubble last?
 
Bitcoin is obviously not worthless.
One bitcoin is currently trading at just under $27k at the time of writing.
Certain tulip bulbs were once selling for 10,000 Guilders, so I guess that's what they were worth. Although another perspective would be that is what they were selling for at the time, but they were worth considerably less.
 
Certain tulip bulbs were once selling for 10,000 Guilders, so I guess that's what they were worth. Although another perspective would be that is what they were selling for at the time, but they were worth considerably less.
If somebody is willing to pay x for y then that's what y is worth. Even if it's all part of a "bigger fool" framework.
 
They reckon the modern and abstract art scene is a big scam buts it's being going on for many decades now. The whole Jeff koons "balloon dog" phenomenon. Why is that worth so much money? everyone can see why a Rembrandt or a Monet is worth so much but not why Jeff koons stuff commands so much money.

They reckon that the bubble nearly crashed during 2008 financial crash. Also it is unknown why 2 pieces that look the same can command vastly different prices. Basically very few of these "works" command the massive money and most are still worthless.But because all these wealthy art collectors have some of this stuff it is in their interests to keep it inflated . So once they all pay huge sums for at least one piece that keeps everyone else in the club happy because then all their stuff is still worth the inflated prices. The art world is also in on the whole thing because it keeps them all in well paid jobs.

I think it's the same with bitcoin, like alternative art it is seen as cool and alternative. It's worth the huge money because it has built up the reputation as being worth alot. Just like the alternative art scene pretends it is equivalent to the great masters, bitcoin pretends it is like gold
 
They reckon the modern and abstract art scene is a big scam buts it's being going on for many decades now. The whole Jeff koons "balloon dog" phenomenon. Why is that worth so much money? everyone can see why a Rembrandt or a Monet is worth so much but not why Jeff koons stuff commands so much money.

They reckon that the bubble nearly crashed during 2008 financial crash. Also it is unknown why 2 pieces that look the same can command vastly different prices. Basically very few of these "works" command the massive money and most are still worthless.But because all these wealthy art collectors have some of this stuff it is in their interests to keep it inflated . So once they all pay huge sums for at least one piece that keeps everyone else in the club happy because then all their stuff is still worth the inflated prices. The art world is also in on the whole thing because it keeps them all in well paid jobs.

I think it's the same with bitcoin, like alternative art it is seen as cool and alternative. It's worth the huge money because it has built up the reputation as being worth alot. Just like the alternative art scene pretends it is equivalent to the great masters, bitcoin pretends it is like gold
Bitcoin's premise on having any value is because it's rare and has a limited supply... a bit like gold ? This argument is totally flawed though. Just because there is a limited supply of my nasal hairs doesn't make them have an intrinsic value. Anyone in crypto is a fool and if they loose everything then that is just Darwins laws in action.
 
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Brendan in another thread referred to Crypto as being a bubble. It has been a bubble for many years now....


How long should a bubble last?
This one lasted more than a year

 
The dictionary gives two definitions of a bubble:
bubble
/ˈbʌbl/
noun
  • 1. a thin sphere of liquid enclosing air or another gas.
  • 2. used to refer to a good or fortunate situation that is isolated from reality or unlikely to last:
Bubbles of the second kind can last quite a long time. Our own nation lived in a theocratic bubble for about 70 years. I myself am astounded at the resilience of the bitcoin bubble. There is even a theory that its recurrent escape from certain demise means it is immortal.
 
Certain tulip bulbs were once selling for 10,000 Guilders, so I guess that's what they were worth. Although another perspective would be that is what they were selling for at the time, but they were worth considerably less.
Dated argument and one that has been long since outed as ill-fitting. The tulip bubble was one boom 'n bust...not a series of boom n bust cycles. In terms of tulips being a store of value, they could never be seeing as they're not finite..

Even in a scam?
Ah, so bitcoin is a 'scam'?

Here's ChatGPT on that assertion -> "No, Bitcoin is not a scam. Bitcoin is a legitimate and innovative form of digital currency that has gained significant attention and adoption since its inception. It has been used for various purposes, including as a store of value, a medium of exchange, and an investment asset."
I think it's the same with bitcoin, like alternative art it is seen as cool and alternative. It's worth the huge money because it has built up the reputation as being worth alot. Just like the alternative art scene pretends it is equivalent to the great masters, bitcoin pretends it is like gold
Pretends? I'm the farthest thing from an art buff but what you're setting out is that if sufficient people assign value to something and that assignation endures, it has value. You can dislike that outcome (hence your use of 'pretends') but so it is.
Bitcoin's premise on having any value is because it's rare and has a limited supply... a bit like gold ? This argument is totally flawed though. Just because there is a limited supply of my nasal hairs doesn't make them have an intrinsic value. Anyone in crypto is a fool and if they loose everything then that is just Darwins laws in action.
It is in fact your analogy that is entirely flawed in this instance. You speak of intrinsic value and such. Can you solve the double spend problem with your nasal hair? Can you transact your nasal hair digitally around the world in near real time? Bitcoin is almost perfectly finite (yes, its users could support a move to rise the cap in the same way as they could all choose to shoot themselves in the face). Gold has finite properties (albeit that they still keep finding the stuff and as the price of it goes up, there's an incentive to find more of it). You can't transact value in the form of gold digitally no more than your nasal hair.

Secondly, on the 'anyone in crypto is a fool' notion, as has been pointed out here many times Bitcoin ≠ Crypto. Most crypto projects will vaporize. Within crypto, you have scammers who haven't the least bit of interest in decentralized technology and are simply grifting and capitalizing on ignorance and hype related to a new technology. This has happened with other technologies in the past - albeit it's amplified in this instance given crypto is adjacent to money and money-like use cases.

This grift is being aided and supported by those who have taken the position that we won't apply any form of regulation because to do so is to give the sector legitimacy. It's easily verifiable that many good actors in the space have been lobbying for effective regulation (that doesn't attempt to destroy any such innovation) for a number of years already. Millions of people have opted to participate in these markets. They're worthy of basic protections and to deny that is a failure. You can't claim to be a champion of the little guy and then say do NOT regulate to stamp out fraudsters/curb grift.

You also have projects that started out in good faith but founders have now been drawn off course due to the $. With their heads turned, their projects are very imperfectly decentralized...although they may find use cases in the middle ground between centralized and decentralized.

There will still be projects in "crypto" that ultimately succeed but I would imagine those projects to represent a handful of the numerous projects that are in existence today. Having said all that, circling back, bitcoin ≠ crypto.
The dictionary gives two definitions of a bubble:
bubble
/ˈbʌbl/
noun
  • 1. a thin sphere of liquid enclosing air or another gas.
  • 2. used to refer to a good or fortunate situation that is isolated from reality or unlikely to last:
Bubbles of the second kind can last quite a long time. Our own nation lived in a theocratic bubble for about 70 years. I myself am astounded at the resilience of the bitcoin bubble. There is even a theory that its recurrent escape from certain demise means it is immortal.
ChatGPT on whether Bitcoin is a bubble ->

"Whether or not Bitcoin is considered a bubble is a subject of ongoing debate and largely depends on one's perspective."

So you're opposed to the idea of it, then its a bubble. You recognize the innovation in it, it's not. How many years ago was it that you said that you were astounded by bitcoin's resilience? Onward we go. :cool:
 
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Bitcoin's premise on having any value is because it's rare and has a limited supply... a bit like gold ? This argument is totally flawed though. Just because there is a limited supply of my nasal hairs doesn't make them have an intrinsic value. Anyone in crypto is a fool and if they loose everything then that is just Darwins laws in action.
The scarcity is part of the premise, the rest of the premise is being practical to use as a system of money, which brings me to....
Dated argument and one that has been long since outed as ill-fitting. The tulip bubble was one boom 'n bust...not a series of boom n bust cycles. In terms of tulips being a store of value, they could never be seeing as they're not finite..
yes, not finite but also not fungible or divisible or robust. Basically a terrible thing to try and use a store of value for many reasons.

As for the discussion about the art market, some would say it's a legitimate market others would say it's a money laundering tool since art has no objective value (I would argue *nothing* does, but it's easy for people to agree art definitely doesn't) which makes it possible to buy it cheap and sell it expensive to launder money without it being obvious laundering. What a nightmare of a thing to try and use as a store of value though. At the expense of having your iNtRiNsIc vAlUe of having it look nice, or awful, on your wall, you're giving up fungibility, divisibility, it's non-trivial to verify, it may be non-trivial to maintain it's original condition and it may be volatile and illiquid depending on what piece you bought. You either better like looking at it a lot or be an expert in the art market.
 
I wouldn't describe bitcoin as practical to use as a system of money. Maybe one day, but certainly not today.
Bitcoin due to its volatile price swings has proven itself so far not practical to use as a system of money. It fails in that regard and in the simple truth that it has no intrinsic value. It is also very bad for the environment considering the energy spend required to mine a bitcoin. Unless all these factors change bitcoin remains nothing less than a cloaked Ponzi Scheme (admittedly though useful for criminal money laundering).
 
I wouldn't describe bitcoin as practical to use as a system of money. Maybe one day, but certainly not today.
From a point of sale point of view, it's improving all the time but sure, further refinement will help. Ditto re. wallets and self-custody but novel approaches are still emerging on that front with the likes of Tangem Wallet being a recent addition.
Bitcoin due to its volatile price swings has proven itself so far not practical to use as a system of money.
In a given year, there's a list of currencies that prove to be volatile (to the downside) and still function as money. Otherwise, that volatility continues to reduce over time. A further broadening of the market cap. via the advent of an ETF and other such adoption will reduce volatility further.

The simple truth that it has no intrinsic value.
Discussed to death. You're quite happy to use something with no intrinsic value as money 99.9% of the time so in consideration of 'money', it's no barrier. If you check the recognized characteristics of what makes for good money, bitcoin scores better than what you use right now in most categories.
It is also very bad for the environment considering the energy spend required to mine a bitcoin.
You've some homework to do. Outdated thinking here. Many of those that were detractors on this point have done a complete 180* turn on that. BlackRock pushed back on Elon Musk on that basis a couple of years ago - now they're saying the opposite. In 2017 the WEF came out with this nonsense....and when I say nonsense, what it claimed was factually incorrect. Now it's coming out with -> this <- instead. I don't much care what either of these think but no doubt they carry some sway in these parts.

bitcoin remains nothing less than a cloaked Ponzi Scheme (admittedly though useful for criminal money laundering).
That statement betrays that you don't know what a Ponzi Scheme is. As regards 'criminal money laundering', yeah, the conventional system never catered for that right? :D All those billions that the top tier banks have been paying for breaches in that regard? Admittedly they're only paying cents on the dollar though. And that's before we get to cash...which leaves no trace whatsoever.
 
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You dismiss Nobel Laureates but your new fount of wisdom is capable of this:
lol. I've challenged the 'wisdom' of your Nobel Laureates (particularly Fax Machine Guy), yes. However, while you say that the views of the Nobel Laureates are a proxy for your views, ChatGPT doesn't take on that role in my case. ;) I just threw it in there for fun to freshen up discussion on specific points that have been done to death.
 
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