41% Exit Tax - Will we see Budget 2026 changes

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What is your appropriate alternative?
After the usual suspects of pension maximisation and mortgage overpayments, it’s extremely challenging as discussed ad nauseam here and elsewhere.

For those who are willing to be fairly hands on, creating a pseudo diversified portfolio of shares is probably best. Higher vol. Same gross expected return. Far higher net expected return particularly over longer time horizon.

For those who absolutely don’t want to be hands on. Probably Uk investment trusts. Downside is marginally higher fees and active manager risk (although this should be somewhat symmetrical).

For your typical investor who wouldn’t have a clue how to create an excel sheet, the admin of 8 year DD for monthly investing is painful. Throw in lack of loss relief & disrupted compounding, it really isn’t attractive to many people in my opinion. I think people on forums like this underestimate just how illiterate the average Joe is in this space. 95% won’t have a clue what DD even is and would need significant education to understand its implications and how to report on it.

It’s not as bad for lump sum investing with shorter time horizons.
 
think people on forums like this underestimate just how illiterate the average Joe is in this space. 95% won’t have a clue what DD even is and would need significant education to understand its implications and how to report on it.
Same for revenue, majority of those officials know very little about it aswell. Probably only the very top tier have some understanding of it. Therefore it's unenforceable anyway I have yet to hear of anyone that was found to be in breach of deemed disposal taxation.
 
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have yet to hear of anyone that was found to be in breach of deemed disposal taxation.
I’d say you’re right. I’d imagine the vast majority of people investing in ETFs are treating it under CGT rules. I’ve been tempted myself but my correspondence with revenue on the matter wouldn’t help plausible deniability!
 
Is it a ticking time bomb for revenue that can be defused? There seems to be a huge increase in people posting on line about using apps to buy ETFs many unaware of DD or tax regs. But most won’t have hit 8 years yet. If DD is removed within the next year or two it would solve a lot of issues.
 
eventually start focusing on this
I won’t be doing it. But thousands are undoubtedly doing so, most largely through ignorance I’d say.
If you’re a PAYE worker with relatively low levels of investments, I’d put the chances of anything happening as very low - but that’s just an opinion!
 
Would really like to know what exactly the government think they will lose if for ETFs, they scrap deemed disposal, lower the tax further, and allow ETF losses to be offset against ETF gains? Are they trying to minimise how much people have in their pockets with the aim of lowering inflation? Next to impossible to achieve as we are very much part of the global economy.

I am saying with hindsight (but would have expected the government bean counters to have had the foresight), if they had addressed this very now obvious problem a number of years ago then maybe the housing crisis would not be as severe?

People would have invested in the stock market instead of buying investment property;​
People would have sold their investment properties and invested in the stock market, instead of now leaving them vacant.​
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Furthermore, the billons that are presently on deposit are losing their purchasing power year-on-year. Surely that is not a good thing for the Irish economy?

Finally, the more people are able to look after themselves the cheaper it is annually for the government (tax payer) to support society as a whole. Whilst there are clear risks with investing, it is far from wild to say that people really can get their savings working for them if they are patient enough to put some savings (outside of their pension) away for a minimum of 5 to 10 years.

I am really only ranting here but it is incredibly frustrating. You almost have to apologies if you are cutting your cloth to measure so that you have the means to invest outside your pension. Everyone has to be on the bones of their rear end, paying high taxes and slowly becoming poorer, or at least heavily hampered in the attempt to build your personal wealth...a dirty term in this country.
 
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if they had addressed this very now obvious problem a number of years ago then maybe the housing crisis would not be as severe?
Other Western countries without deemed disposal have housing crises as severe as Ireland.

If 95% of investors don't have a clue about DD, then I doubt the other 5% are having a meaningful impact. And if they are, then the measures announced yesterday are reducing the disparity between property and ETF taxation, so they're helping to fix the housing crisis.
 
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Other Western countries without deemed disposal have housing crises as severe as Ireland.
Fair point, though here in Ireland you had the average joe soap up down the country owning multiple houses. Unsure if that wide behavior was acute in other Western countries.

Maybe many may not be familiar with the tax DD but people are not fools. They know shares carry a risk and possibly find it hard to square away the risk when tax is so high and difficult to navigate.
 
As long as deemed disposal and no loss relief remains, ETFs are arguably an inappropriate investment vehicle for the majority of retail investors. So I’d say the rate itself is a red herring.
I was referring to the Funds Review Implementation Plan. I read it on my phone and didn't notice that it was marked "Under Consideration". If a firmer commitment along those line were made in the Spring, I'd consider that substantial, but yeah, yesterday's move on the rate isn't much.
 
14 Oct

Barry Ward​

Question:
345. Deputy Barry Ward asked the Minister for Finance the position regarding his Department-led review of the fund and investment industry in Ireland; including a specific assessment of the deemed disposal rule; if there is a timeline for the implementation of the report’s recommendations; and if he will make a statement on the matter.

Written answers​

Minister for Finance​

As the Deputy may be aware, an Implementation Plan for ‘Funds Sector 2030: A Framework for Open, Resilient & Developing Markets’ (the final report of the Fund review) was published on 7 October 2025. The Implementation Plan sets out the current position with respect to the recommendations of the Fund Review under four headings; recommendations to grow Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs); to grow private assets; to grow retail investment; and to address risks and enhance transparency in structured finance.

The Implementation Plan notes that 30 of the 42 recommendations are either complete, on a path to completion or progressing including completion by the Central Bank of substantive recommendations on ETFs and the AIF Rulebook.

Consideration of the recommendations of the Funds Review, including those that relate to deemed disposal, will feed into the development of the roadmap for the taxation of retail investment that I announced in my Budget speech, and which I expect to publish in early 2026. The roadmap will set out the intended approach to simplify and adapt the tax framework to encourage retail investment, which will be implemented in future Finance Bills, taking into account developments at EU level in respect of the Savings and Investments Union.

While work on the roadmap is underway, I have taken action in Budget 2026, announcing changes to the relevant applicable tax rates. Finance Bill 2025 will provide for a reduction in the rate of Investment Undertaking Tax (IUT), Life Assurance Exit Tax (LAET) and the rate of tax applicable to investments in equivalent offshore funds and certain foreign life assurance policies from 41% to 38% from 1 January 2026.
Ignored the timeline for implementation question
 
Joint Committee on Enterprise, Tourism and Employment debate -
Wednesday, 8 Oct 2025

Mr. Ian Talbot, chief executive officer of Chambers Ireland
My core message was about the 41% ETF tax, which the Minister said would be reduced to 38% and on which he said a review would be done. A topic of conversation for several years has been that it was €140 billion, €150 billion or €160 billion, and now we are going to do a review of it. To come back to the time issue, as I said in response to Senator Nelson Murray, we do not have time any more to throw stuff into a review if it is just a matter of deferring making decisions on it. I am not sure how much money the ETF tax raises. I might be completely wrong but I have heard it is approximately €70 million in a year. In the scheme of our tax returns at present, particularly corporation tax, that is nothing.

Could we not throw out this model and put something out there to say that creating new retail products to support Irish businesses is now fully supported and will be supported by the tax system? I am not sure what it would look like - perhaps a tax of 20%. At present, because there is no market for a product that pays a tax of 41%, nobody is building products to serve the market, and they will not build it for 38% either. Rather than keep it for the sake of a €70 million tax return, we should throw it out altogether, put in something new and let the market build new products. I have no doubt whatsoever that the tax return on whatever came back from that new market would vastly outstrip the €70 million. We have never had a better time. That is what was driving my thought process when I wrote it. It has never been a better time to move away from incrementalism. Incremental change in something like VAT or income tax involves big numbers. This is not a big number. Let us take a risk.
 
For your typical investor who wouldn’t have a clue how to create an excel sheet, the admin of 8 year DD for monthly investing is painful. Throw in lack of loss relief & disrupted compounding, it really isn’t attractive to many people in my opinion. I think people on forums like this underestimate just how illiterate the average Joe is in this space. 95% won’t have a clue what DD even is and would need significant education to understand its implications and how to report on it
And for the 5% who do understand it, DD is no less painful!

If, as is claimed in the replies to parliamenty questions, making changes to the DD regime is so complex that it requires multiple budgets to achieve, leave it in place. Instead, follow the guidance of the EU Commission for the SIU, and offer an ISA-like account, where people won't need to concern themselves about the tax treatment of the instrument within it.
 
Either Ian Talbot believes that no member of Chambers of Ireland has an investment in a Life Assurance Investment product or he was set up by someone else that only invests in EFTs (probably in year 6 or 7) that has no consideration whatsoever for the investors in those that paid €160m in LAET last year plus €40m in the Government Levy. Why leave all that out?

6% of the people make 94% of the 'noise' online about ETFs but it's likely that 94% of the people, that need advice, would invest in a packaged version of the ETF/Fund. Highly unlikely that the number of individual submissions to the review mentioned LAET or 1% Government Levy. If you're going to make noise about DD then have a bit of consideration for your fellow investors that may not want to buy EFTs direct. The alternative products are still going to have to be 'sold' to them and it's impotant to you that the tax take is higher across the board from higher demand on all products.

If DD goes across the board, if tax rates are reducing and if the Levy is repealed then AMCs will have to come down because providers will see that demand is going to increase so they have to be more competitive. It's not that long ago that you couldn't buy a PRSA with an AMC of less than 1%.


Gerard

www.bond.ie
 
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Ignored the timeline for implementation question
Exactly that's what pascal donohue always does, he spends most of the answer repeating the question asked, then repeating the same prepared answer he gave before but not answering the question.
He must have went to the donald trump school for waffling except you can get a laugh out of trump.
 
It’s not really possible (and it doesn’t make a lot of sense) to talk about the taxation of the earnings (income/gains) of those who invest in managed funds without also considering the taxation of the earnings of the fund itself. Obviously you want to avoid double taxation of the same earnings (once when they accrue to the fund and a second time when the investor receives them from the fund, or on realising their investment in the fund). But you also want to avoid funds being used to shelter income and gains from any tax at all for an indefinite, and possibly unlimited, period.

There’s a good deal of talk on AAM about the tax-favoured investment mechanisms available in the UK, Sweden, etc. But they operate by way of exception, and to make sense of them you have to look at them in the context of the tax regime that they are an exception to.

A fairly common high-level policy position adopted in many countries is:
  • We should be tax-neutral as between direct investment in equities, bonds, etc, and investment in funds that, in turn, invest in equities, bonds, etc — taxpayers shouldn’t be penalised for preferring direct over indirect investments or vice versa.
  • Investment income and gains should be taxed as they accrue
  • By way of exception to this, we’ll permit mechanisms by which investors can receive income and gains tax-free, or they can defer taxation on their income and gains. But these will have limits - usually monetary amounts that you can put into them, or that you can hold in them at any time.
You then adopt a taxation regime which requires managed funds to distribute their earnings (income and gains) in full every year. Investors are then taxed on these each year, except to the extent to which they can avail of a tax-favoured arrangement to avoid or defer tax.

A variant on this is a taxation regime requiring managed funds to declare their income and gains each year. Investors are then taxed on these, whether or not they receive them. It’s up to the investor whether or not he wants to meet this tax liability by selling some units in the fund, or from other sources — the revenue authorities don’t care.

Either way, income and gains are taxed in the year that they accrue to the fund, but they are taxed in the hands of investors. Thus, when the investor redeems their investment, there’s no further tax to pay — the income and gains have already been fully taxed. (But if the investment has been sheltered in one of the tax-favoured mechanisms just mentioned, there may be tax to pay — it depends on whether the tax-favoured mechanism is designed to give a full tax exemption, or just a tax deferral.)

But then you have to consider the issue of offshore investments. The Revenue can’t tell a fund in, say, Luxembourg that it must distribute income or gains, or that it must declare its income and gains so that Irish investors in the fund can be assessed to tax. So a lot of countries have two parallel regimes:
  • One regime for investments in funds established and taxed within the country (or in overseas funds which voluntarily participate in the system)
  • A second regime for investments in overseas funds
The problem with this is that it’s messy. Plus, the second regime tends to be burdensome on taxpayers — they have to proactively get information about income and gains from the fund manager and then declare it to the revenue. So that operates as a disincentive to invest in foreign funds.

That’s a problem for the EU, which wants to facilitate cross-border investment funds. And it doesn’t take a genius to work out that the way to do this is to develop an EU-wide reporting regime in which all funds must either distribute their earnings, or declare their earnings to investors, so that each country can then tax those earnings (or not) in accordance with its national requirements. Each country can then decide for itself what tax exemptions or tax deferrals it wishes to allow via ISA-type accounts, or whatever.

The current tax regime in Ireland is generous to funds — they’re not taxed at all on either income or gains. Because it’s so generous, without something like deemed disposal, investors in managed funds could defer taxation on income and gains indefinitely — hugely valuable to the investors, and a serious distortion of the investment market. (And a massive favouring of investment earnings over earnings from work, which would be politically sensitive.) Hence, deemed disposal.

If there is a move towards either distribution or reporting of income and gains by the funds, then a move away from deemed disposal becomes a lot easier, since you can tax investors on actual, known income and gains each year, rather than intermittently through a highly artificial deemed disposal. (It will mean a tax bill to investors, rather than the tax being deducted and remitted by the fund managers, though.)

In that context, an ISA-type arrangement looks attractive. You can set limits at a level that means that modest investors won’t have any tax compliance obligations — all their investments can be held in an ISA — and that means the availability of ISAs won’t mean money being diverted from retirement savings (which for public policy reasons the government doesn’t want). Only relatively large investors will have reporting obligations and tax liabilities, which means that we don’t have a big wodge of burdensome tax compliance encompassing a lot of taxpayers to collect relatively trivial amounts.
 
Good luck with that sort of line of defence when Revenue eventually start focusing on this and people have accumulated skeletons in their cupboard
Id say many that hold ETFs that may not be doing the taxation returns correctly if at all are PAYE workers on modest enough incomes not Revenue's usual targets of small businessmen, publicans and farmers. Are they really going to drag up this group for non compliance with the taxation given that the main reason for the non compliance is the overly complex rules around ETFs devised by revenue themselves . That would generate alot of unwanted heat and political pushback that you don't get if a small businessman etc gets a big tax default ruling.
Also the government conducted a review of the taxation of ETFs and deemed disposal and Pascal Donohue has been asked questions on the issue multiple times now in the dail. Could the government really stand over a revenue trawl of these PAYE workers with holdings of ETFs that are non compliant, because of this very contentious taxation issue?
 
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