41% Exit Tax - Will we see Budget 2026 changes

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thought process that she is making noises knowing what is coming down the line or to pressure a minister?
Id say it's to keep the pressure on the minister, he has shown no incentive to do anything on this , all the running on making changes and the public consultation was carried out by his predecessor. His natural inclination is to just sit on his hands and talk gobbledygook on the subject.
 
I have a poll running on linked in

 
I have a poll running on linked in
Interesting remark from one individual who commented on it.

"My guess is that they remove the 8 year rule, and then a very slow and gradual reduction of the rate from 41% to 36% and then retain the traditional CGT+3% to account for gross dividends. This was alluded to by Dept officials over the summer at presentations in Dublin."
 
retain the traditional CGT+3% to account for gross dividends
The exit tax rate has never been linked to CGT. When it was introduced it was 3% above standard rate of income tax but since Apr 2009 it has not been linked to income tax or CGT.

There is no requirement that it must be +3% for gross roll-up now.

1758706603454.webp
 
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Was anyone at any of these presentations by the Dept over the summer, or have any information as to what was presented?
 
PQ 25 Sept 2025

Question:​

230. Deputy Tom Brabazon asked the Minister for Finance if his Department will abolish the deemed disposal regime as it applies to investments in Exchange Traded Funds and align the taxation of gains on ETFs with the capital gains tax regime at 33%, with tax payable only upon an actual disposal.; and if he will make a statement on the matter. [50928/25]

Written answers​

Minister for Finance​

An “Exchange Traded Fund” or “ETF” is an investment fund that is traded on a regulated stock exchange. There is no separate taxation regime specifically for ETFs. ETFs, being collective investment funds, generally come within the regimes set out in the Taxes Consolidation Act 1997 for such funds. The domicile of the ETF will generally determine the applicable fund regime, specifically whether the ETF falls within the domestic fund regime or the offshore fund regime.

Under the domestic fund regime, a ‘gross roll-up’ applies such that there is no annual tax on income or gains arising to a fund, but the fund has responsibility to deduct an exit tax in respect of payments made to certain unit holders in that fund. To prevent indefinite or long-term deferral of this exit tax, a disposal is deemed to occur every 8 years. For ETFs while the fund is not required to apply an exit tax, the Irish resident unit holder will be subject to tax on income and gains arising and must self-assess and include details of income and gains in a timely filing on their income tax return to Revenue.

In October 2024, my predecessor Minister Chambers published the ‘Funds Sector 2030: A Framework for Open, Resilient & Developing Markets’, a wide-ranging review of the funds and asset management sector. The Funds Review Report sets out a series of recommendations to ensure that, in pursuit of continued growth in the funds and asset management sector, Ireland’s funds sector framework remains resilient, future-proofed, supportive of financial stability and a continued example of international best-practice.

The Funds Review Report includes eight recommendations to promote increased retail participation in capital markets. Recommendations 22 and 23, which concern taxation, include consideration of the removal of the eight-year deemed disposal rule for Irish domiciled funds and life products.

In the Programme for Government, there is a commitment to progress and publish an implementation plan taking into consideration the Funds Review recommendations related to enabling more retail investment. Recognising the complexities within the current regime for the average retail investor, Department officials are actively reviewing options for measures that could be taken to promote increased retail participation in capital markets. It is likely, given the breadth of the Funds Review Report and the work involved, that where appropriate tax measures are identified, the delivery of those measures may take place over multiple Finance Bill cycles. This work will also take account of developments at an EU level in respect of the Savings Investment Union.

Hmm, v similar PQ response to last week but the Budget 2026 reference has now been removed...
The Programme for Government has committed to progress and publish an implementation plan for consideration in Budget 2026 taking into consideration the Funds Review recommendations to unlock retail investment and opportunities to grow this sector in Ireland.
 
Minister is not able to answer a simple question, he spends most of the reply regurgitating the question asked then the rest regurgitating the same answer he gave last week and last year. You would get a better answer out of AI. He seems to have a lack of interest or awareness of the job now,

Although he has made one inadvertent revelation, they are again distinguishing between the domicile of the ETFs and only Irish domiciled ETFs are taxed under deemed disposal regime. US domiciled ETFs seem to be taxed under CGT. The whole revenue removing clarification in 2021 seems to have made no difference and looks like it was designed to muddy the waters
 
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You would get a better answer out of AI.
It does seem like a case of good cop, bad cop between Jack and Pascal. This close to the Budget he could announce alignment of exit tax with the higher rate of income tax and spin it as a win.
 
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he spends most of the reply regurgitating the question asked then the rest regurgitating the same answer he gave last week and last year
The answers are written by the civil service for the politicians, which is why the response is nearly always the same. Most politicians, including our MoF, seem disinterested in the topic, and to be frank, that's probably because most of the general population is disinterested in the topic.

I don't think dropping the reference to Budget 2026 is an accident (@TheJackal well spotted). In a situation whereby Departments are over-spending their budgets, the threat of tariffs loom large, IFAC, the CB, and others are at pointing out how precarious our tax base is, any change to the status-quo seems unlikely.
 
In a situation whereby Departments are over-spending their budgets, the threat of tariffs loom large, IFAC, the CB, and others are at pointing out how precarious our tax base is, any change to the status-quo sieems unlikely.

is it certain that reducing the ETF tax rate will reduce the tax take? If some of the savings currently sitting in low or non-yielding bank accounts moves to trading ETFs might the tax take from that currently unproductive amount of savings not potentially increase?
 
is it certain that reducing the ETF tax rate will reduce the tax take? If some of the savings currently sitting in low or non-yielding bank accounts moves to trading ETFs might the tax take from that currently unproductive amount of savings not potentially increase?
Certain, no, likely, yes.

You've got the certainty that changing the tax regime will reduce the amount of tax collected on ETFs, with the potential that some people move money from cash savings (again already taxed via DIRT), start investing in ETFs and ultimately sell them (or earn dividends from them, if non accumulating) to generate more tax. In the long-term with enough education, maybe, but I'd argue you'd need to create a much better incentive to really move the dial in this respect.

If you did want to change behaviour, a more effective way is to create an ISA-style account where the tax treatment of what you're investing in is irrelevant. EU pressure (resulting from the Draghi report) via the SIU could do that ultimately, but I fear the same conservative mentality by those who design such schemes will prevail, and our version will be the 'poor relation' (in all senses of the term).
 
start investing in ETFs and ultimately sell them (or earn dividends from them, if non accumulating) to generate more tax.
And don't forget that DIRT provides the government with a regular income as it's collected whenever interest is paid. Exit tax is only paid on a taxable event.
 
DIRT provides the government with a regular income as it's collected whenever interest is paid
From the Government's perspective, exit tax does provide a regular income as each annual tranche of investments from 8 years ago becomes liable for deemed disposal.
 
I have no idea whether there will be any changes announced in the Budget.

I do know that sensitive tax policy changes like this are extremely closely guarded and if there are any plans no more than dozen people know about them at present.

Everyone both in public and online is doing nothing other than guessing.
 
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How is Revenue measuring the tax take ?
UCITS unit funds and ETFS are lumped together for exit tax purposes.
 
My guess for what it’s worth….

Maybe small reduction in exit tax. Can’t see deemed disposal being removed. It’s too much of a nice little earner for Revenue.
 
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