Why has the Lotto jackpot not been won ?

“RTÉ” said:
Given that tickets have been bought since early June, this highly unusual situation is akin to chances of rolling a die 37 times with the number six arising, TDs and Senators will hear.
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I think they mean without a six arising.

Update: this is a misquote by RTÉ. The Irish Times report the lottery people as saying it is like not throwing a six 37 times.
 
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Purple said:
Is that correct though?
Are the odds the same?
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The chances of a 6 on one throw is 1 in 6 or say c.17%; the chances of not a 6 are then 83%.
Chances of two 6's on 2 throws of dice 17% x 17% = 3%; Chances of no 6 on 2 throws = 83% x 83% = 70%, still quite high
The chances of a 6 every time for 37 throws is like odds of number of atoms in the universe but chances of no 6 37 times is about 1 per 1,000; very low but not outlandishly so.
 
I see National Lottery will propose to Finance Committee that they are looking for permission for a "must win" draw. That would be interesting. By my reckoning that would make a €2 entry worth more than €10.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
The chances of a 6 on one throw is 1 in 6 or say c.17%; the chances of not a 6 are then 83%.
Chances of two 6's on 2 throws of dice 17% x 17% = 3%; Chances of no 6 on 2 throws = 83% x 83% = 70%, still quite high
The chances of a 6 every time for 37 throws is like odds of number of atoms in the universe but chances of no 6 37 times is about 1 per 1,000; very low but not outlandishly so.
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What's the chance of the Lottery not being won over this period?
 
Purple said:
What's the chance of the Lottery not being won over this period?
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About 1 in a 1,000 which is the chances of no 6 in 37 throws of the die or indeed throwing a 6 in 4 throws at once, which doesn't sound quite so impossible. Have you ever thrown a double 6 twice in a row in Monopoly? It happens.
 
Reporter on Claire Byrne noted that Premier Lotteries are currently still in considerable debt from their original purchase (€400m in 2014).
 
It would be nice to know how their ticket sales have been going. A 'must win' draw would get a massive interest.
 
Watched the whole Finance Committee session. Durkan is such an idiot. He asked how was it possible to make sure of a win, were they going to fiddle the game (more or less). He didn't understand the explanation i.e. that the prize would be pushed down to Match 5 + Bonus and if that didn't have any winners to Match 5 etc. etc.
There was one TD who really knew her onions. Questioned the 37 throws of the dice and that her calculations based on 1.4m sales per draw were 1 in 2,000 chance which differed somewhat from that. It was explained that the 1.4m sales included duplicates and that the lottery calculation was based on the number of different entries, which of course only they are privy to. She admitted that that explained it and meant there were on average only 850k different entries - I kid you not, she knew her stuff!
Later she queried why the Lottery company was paying 9% p.a. on a €200M loan from its Canadian parent and strongly suggested that this was a tax avoidance arrangement.

Such talent is wasted in Dail Eireann - I mean that.
Her name? Mairead Farrell, SF TD for Galway West, with a degree from my alma mater Queens University Belfast. Be Afraid :eek:
 
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A really weird revelation was that c.€20m p.a. of unclaimed prizes is ploughed back into promoting the NL unlike in the UK where it goes to good causes.
 
odyssey06 said:
That seems an astonishing marketing budget / slush fund.
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Certainly does. The chairman really queried it and didn't really get a very satisfactory answer from the NL guy as to under what heads this promotion came. In fact the NL guy was his own worst enemy; kept ducking questions citing confidentiality. You would swear he had something to hide which I am sure he has not.
Toibin was good as well. When the NL guy yet again cited commercial sensitivity not allowing him to answer a question, Toibin asked him who his competitors were. He said they are in general competition for discretionary spend. Toibin rightly dismissed that kop out.
 
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Duke of Marmalade said:
Such talent is wasted in Dail Eireann - I mean that.
Her name? Mairead Farrell, SF TD for Galway West, with a degree from my alma mater Queens University Belfast. Be Afraid :eek:
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I'd say she was great at those maths problems from school that started with "If Gerry has a 1.5 ton van and has to blow up a 6 story building, how much fertiliser will he need to pack into the back of it..."
 
Purple said:
I'd say she was great at those maths problems from school that started with "If Gerry has a 1.5 ton van and has to blow up a 6 story building, how much fertiliser will he need to pack into the back of it..."
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If two volunteers can dig a grave for one informer in two days, how long will it take three volunteers to dig graves for six informers?

Answers on the back of a Northern Bank £50 note to the SF Christmas Carol-singing fund.

Winner gets a CD of duets by Gerry Adams and David Cullinane. They haven't gone away you know.
 
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