Why has the Lotto jackpot not been won ?

RetirementPlan said:
Honestly not sure if this is a serious allegation or not. If it is intended to be serious, then you might want to come up with some evidence to support it.

The Canadians don't decide what causes to support afaik. Monies go to various Government departments, who have various distribution schemes, like the Sports Capital grant scheme.
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It's only in the depths here we can speak the truth of these matters ... so obviously you are in on this scam... what was your price?
A Canada Goose jacket? A year's supply of Molson beer? Due South on DVD?

The truth about Canada's hidden agenda will emerge...
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Robin Williams - Blame Canada (Live at Oscar 1999)

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Bottom Line:- The Lotto is an easy and relatively cheap gamble in chasing a dream. Most of us want to win the jackpot and most of us will fail, but the dream is inbuilt in us. And nobody gets hurt in the process.

Cheap form of publicity:- Some of our politicians fire cheap shots at the Lottery and know it's and easy form of publicity for them.

Lotto is here to stay and the odds are never going to get better. I have done two lines of the same numbers in Lotto for each draw since its launch and todate I've lost nearly all of what I spent, but on two occasions I had only one number short of winning the jackpot, so I live in hope. But, then again what good is a Lotto jackpot win to me at my age? Furthermore, it's only money. And haven't we qualified professional accountants looking after the fairness of Lotto, although on one occasion they had difficulty differentiating between the numbers of 6 and 9.
 
twofor1 said:
The Lotto jackpot has been capped at €19 million since October and has not been won since June.

In the past 8 draws alone, 390 people have matched 5 numbers out of the first 6 balls, so since June probably around 780 would have matched 5 numbers out of the first 6 balls.

Given that there are only 47 numbers in the draw, statistically (I think) 16 people out of that 780 should have picked the 6th number, but no one has.

Just curious and trying to get my head around it, is this a remarkable coincidence or am I missing something ?
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There are 246 ways a match 5 can miss the jackpot. 6 choices for the missing winning number and 41 choices to replace it with a losing number. 6 * 41 = 246.
The chances of 780 match 5s missing the jackpot is about 4% (Poisson distribution for the nerds who are watching) as we would expect about 3 to hit. Note this is not far off 1/6th of your guesstimate which echoes with other explanations.
This is a low probability and the sequence is unusual but not beyond the realms of possibility - slightly higher than the odds of a single number coming up on a roulette wheel.
If your guesstimate had been correct the chances of that outcome would be about 1 in a billion and that would certainly justify an investigation.
 
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Leper said:
Bottom Line:- The Lotto is an easy and relatively cheap gamble in chasing a dream. Most of us want to win the jackpot and most of us will fail, but the dream is inbuilt in us. And nobody gets hurt in the process.

Cheap form of publicity:- Some of our politicians fire cheap shots at the Lottery and know it's and easy form of publicity for them.

Lotto is here to stay and the odds are never going to get better. I have done two lines of the same numbers in Lotto for each draw since its launch and todate I've lost nearly all of what I spent, but on two occasions I had only one number short of winning the jackpot, so I live in hope. But, then again what good is a Lotto jackpot win to me at my age? Furthermore, it's only money. And haven't we qualified professional accountants looking after the fairness of Lotto, although on one occasion they had difficulty differentiating between the numbers of 6 and 9.
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Keep dreaming of that million euro coffee machine;)
 
Just for comparison.

Play Lotto and you get back, on average, about 50c in the Euro.

Put on a bet with Paddy Power and it's about 80c in the Euro.

Hit the slots in Vegas and your expected return will be about 90%. Try roulette and that goes up to about 97c in the Euro. Baccarat and Craps, if you choose the right bet, return about 99c in the Euro. Play disciplined blackjack and you can get about 99.5c in the Euro.

Lotto is really, really bad value. But you're paying for the dream and the mental fun of planning how you'd divvy up (or spend!) the winnings you almost certainly won't get.

While it might well be a tax on stupidity, or innumeracy, I just wish all taxes were equally voluntary.:p
 
Of course, the Lotto is bad value for money. But, people tend not to look back on previous numbers or study what numbers come out best or numbers that come out worst. It take only seconds to fill in a Lotto form and there's no great effort or science picking your numbers unless you want to make it so. It's around 11M to 1 that your first line will win or 11M to 1 that your second line will win the jackpot. But, so what you could spend your money worse. It was always meant to be fun and with some exceptions has been fun.

If you want to see where gambling is not fun, just visit one of the many casinos around Ireland or even people watch the braindead in bookies offices and the way they chase lost money. Personally, I visit the bookies most days but I know my weekly amount for betting on the gee-gees and never do I exceed the amount. If I win, I collect and go. Normally, I lose, but not so much money and I enjoy putting my racing knowledge against the expert punters. I haven't mentioned online gambling and there's where the big money is generally lost.
 
Baby boomer said:
Just for comparison.

Play Lotto and you get back, on average, about 50c in the Euro.
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Yes, but this figure is hugely distorted by the carry forward jackpot of €19m.
To know the expected percentage pay-out ratio on tonight's draw one needs to know how many lines will be bought. (You actually also need to know the more tricky figure for the level of duplication in lines bought.)
Last Saturday €96k was paid in Match 4 prizes. The National Lottery rules state this to be of the order of 5.46% of the Prize Fund which in turn is 52% of the total amounts spent on lines. So that suggests to me about €4m worth of lines bought or 2m lines.
Now because the jackpot is capped and carried over, all of the 46% of the Prize Fund which is normally allocated to the jackpot is paid in Match 5 prizes. In this way the €19m carried forward jackpot is a "bonus" in addition to the normal 52% pay-out.
2 million tickets have a 17% chance of scooping the jackpot, allowing for an average rate of duplication. That translates as an expected pay-out ratio of 17% x 19m/4m which equals 80.7% so for €4m purchases of lotto tickets the overall expected pay-out ratio is 52% + 80.7% equals 132.7%.

This pay-out ratio reduces if there are more tickets purchased and with 15m tickets purchased for €30m the pay-out ratio becomes 100%.

But at even current heightened rates of participation the Lotto is the best bet in town by far.

* Updated for precise figures
 
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Jackpot again not won, which is of course no big surprise as I estimate the chances of it being won at any drawing is about 17%.
Lotto remains the best value bet in town with a pay-out ratio of c. 133%, though no better than before this draw as the jackpot share of the pool (c. 24%) is not rolling up but is being distributed to the Match 5 plus Bonus ball.

The corollary is that when the jackpot is won and we start all over again the Lotto is very bad value indeed. For whilst the pay-out ratio reverts to 52% about 20%* of this will go to future tickets as the likelihood is that the jackpot will not be won. That is a pay-out ratio of about 32%:(

* The jackpot share when the cap is not applicable is 46% of the Prize Fund which is itself 52% of total ticket money and at more normal levels of participation the failure rate is about 85%. 46% x 52% x 85% = 20.3%
 
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Doing a bit more analysis on this. Lots of data on the National Lottery website, though I cannot find the actual amount invested. But this can be estimated very accurately from the number of Match 3 winners. This was 32,999 on Saturday. The odds are almost exactly 50/1 against a Match 3 so that gives an accurate estimate of the number of lines as 1.65m for a gross purchase of €3.3M. (my earlier estimate was 2m lines for the previous Saturday using a different estimator).
Back when there was no carry forward jackpot on Saturday July 10th the equivalent figure was 865k lines.
So assuming a linear relationship between jackpot carry forward and number of lines purchased I get the following ready reckoner for the expected (i.e. average) pay-out ratio on lotto. (Of course, the actual pay-out ratio will depend on whether the jackpot is won.)

No carry forward jackpot: 37%
€10m carry forward : 72%
€17m carry forward: 100%
€19m carry forward but capping not kicking in yet: 110%
€19m carry forward and capping applicable: 134%

For jackpot carry forward in excess of €17m it is "rational" to play Lotto and vice versa. It is particularly rational when, as now, the cap has kicked in.

The stated pay-out ratio is 52% and that is what it will be overall but this varies from 37% when there is no carry forward jackpot to 134% when the cap has kicked in. Basically, when there is no carry forward jackpot you expect that 15% of your "investment" is in fact going to future generations who will enjoy these past carry forwards. This is the opposite of a Ponzi scheme.
 
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I knew it wouldn't be won. That's why I didn't play it... keeping my powder dry...
 
odyssey06 said:
Make sure to keep us in the loop on when you reckon it will be won... and any hints to the numbers aswell, eh?
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No way, I'm not sharing it!
If, I mean when, when I win I'll be employing someone to post here on my behalf so you'll probably notice an improvement in that area. Other than that there'll ne no changes.
 
Purple said:
No way, I'm not sharing it!
If, I mean when, when I win I'll be employing someone to post here on my behalf so you'll probably notice an improvement in that area. Other than that there'll ne no changes.
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I think that you should share it as you wouldn't have the nerves to handle that much money .....but forget the others .,.you can share it with me and I won't tell anyone ..,.
 
joer said:
I think that you should share it as you wouldn't have the nerves to handle that much money .....but forget the others .,.you can share it with me and I won't tell anyone ..,.
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It'll be grand, I'll just put it with all the rest.
 
Purple said:
No way, I'm not sharing it!
If, I mean when, when I win I'll be employing someone to post here on my behalf so you'll probably notice an improvement in that area. Other than that there'll ne no changes.
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I think we'll have to get the mods to set a post count limit in that case!
 
Purple said:
It'll be grand, I'll just put it with all the rest.
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Make sure and stack them on their edges so that they will all fit ......I'll even help .,...And I'll call you if I need a hand to do the same
 
joer said:
Make sure and stack them on their edges so that they will all fit ......I'll even help .,...And I'll call you if I need a hand to do the same
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Good advice, thanks and I'll certainly take you up on your offer...
 
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