The screw is being turned on the DUP

[Early Riser]

It would buy us time Purple. If we really thought border checks in November would precipitate a new Troubles we would be morally bound to seek that two year transition in which negotiations would take place with the aim to prevent the backstop ever being needed. Remember the EU keep telling us it is only an insurance policy, unlikely ever to be needed.

This is just what the Brexiters wanted from the start. They started by calling for a free trade deal with the EU with access to both the Customs Union and the Single Market - but without the committments that go with that, like the jurisdiction of the ECJ, regulatory alignment and worker's rights. Bojo referred to it as "having our cake and eating it".
If the backstop is omitted from the Withdrawal Agreement the Irish border will simply become a British bargaining chip in the future trade relationships - "give us what we want or else". Don't forget that the the majority of the British electorate (and the Brexiters en masse) care not one jot about Ireland, north or south, unionist or nationalist.

This is the one and only chance to get a border guarantee.

 

[WolfeTone]

As I outlined before there were some glaring injustices which led to 25 years of Troubles and over 3,000 deaths. I don't think we have made much progress if the affront to identity wrought by customs checks would likely precipitate a similar catastrophe.

You are the only one peddling the 25yrs and 3,000 deaths.
Most are concerned with the prospect of one more unnecessary death. The GFA, for all its flaws in not making a specific mention of the border, has done much to reduce the prospect of violence in Ireland. Part of that, was a recognition of the PSNI as the legitimate police force, another part was the dismantling of the British security apparatus, part of it, was the re-opening of all border crossings.
Unfortunately the GFA, or more precise, the political class have failed to implement all that was agreed. This is causing some resistance to the peace process. The families of Lyra McKee, Stephen Carroll, can testify to that. It breathes life into those wanting to suck life out of police officers, soldiers and, if they deem it, customs officers.
The whole purpose of the GFA is to build up generational apthy for violent insurrection - something that happened in the past, but is no longer used.
Re-surfacing the border is a backward step.

Oh, except everyone from Arlene to Boris tell us that wont happen. There is no need for a border between NI and RoI under any circumstances.

Well, just to be sure, stick it out to sea.
Oh, no! Cant have that! Cant have a border between Britain and NI!
Even though they tell us, there is no need for a border!

 

[Early Riser]

As I outlined before there were some glaring injustices

I thought you were the Duke of hyperbole there for a while - but now it is understatement.

Anyway there were more than "some" glaring injustices. But it was not these injustices alone that provided the context for 25 years of violence. It was also the issues around identity - the recognition of the specifically Irish identity of nationalists and parity of esteem for their aspirations. The re-installation of a border will be seem as an affront to their identity. How individuals react to that will vary.

I assume the DUP are up for Brexit because they are threatened by the changing demographics in NI and the see Brexit as weakening the link between Ireland north and south (or, to put it another way, strengthening unionist identity). But even some of them seem to recognise the dangers of a hard border as opposed to some kind of "soft Brexit".

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

This is just what the Brexiters wanted from the start. They started by calling for a free trade deal with the EU with access to both the Customs Union and the Single Market - but without the committments that go with that, like the jurisdiction of the ECJ, regulatory alignment and worker's rights. Bojo referred to it as "having our cake and eating it".
If the backstop is omitted from the Withdrawal Agreement the Irish border will simply become a British bargaining chip in the future trade relationships - "give us what we want or else". Don't forget that the the majority of the British electorate (and the Brexiters en masse) care not one jot about Ireland, north or south, unionist or nationalist.

This is the one and only chance to get a border guarantee.

I am not saying the backstop has not been a brilliant negotiating ploy by the EU, one which might backfire on Ireland. I am arguing that the linking of the backstop to the need to preserve peace on the island is totally overblown and cynical.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I assume the DUP are up for Brexit because they are threatened by the changing demographics in NI and the see Brexit as weakening the link between Ireland north and south (or, to put it another way, strengthening unionist identity).

I think their motivation was more primitive than that. This is the party of the Rev Ian Paisley. That arch anti EU demagogue railed against the Treaty of Rome and made a Holy show of himself when Pope John Paul addressed the European parliament. In the 70s referendum Paisley likened the admission of UK, Ireland, Sweden and Denmark to join the original six was predicted in the Bible where apparently some six headed monster became a ten headed one.
It is interesting that Scotland, itself deeply rooted in the Protestant Reformation found no such seventeenth century reservations with the (admittedly largely RC) EU.
Unfortunately Leo Coveney played right into this sectarian narrative on Brexit and has made the situation much worse than it should have been.

 

[Early Riser]

I think their motivation was more primitive than that. This is the party of the Rev Ian Paisley. That arch anti EU demagogue railed against the Treaty of Rome and made a Holy show of himself when Pope John Paul addressed the European parliament. In the 70s referendum Paisley likened the admission of UK, Ireland, Sweden and Denmark to join the original six was predicted in the Bible where apparently some six headed monster became a ten headed one

Ah - I had forgotten about this particular fulmination from the lovely Reverend. But do you reckon this Free Presbyterian fundamentalism still dominates the DUP ? Do they make up a majority of its membership (I haven't a clue about this) ?

I would have thought that the main thing uniting the thinking of its followers now is The Union. Anything seen as protecting this is good, anything else is bad. It was in this context that I thought they plumped for Brexit (maybe not). If so, although a tactical victory I suspect it may turn into a strategic defeat.

Incidentally, although the number of votes they brought in for Brexit in NI may have been inconsequential in the overall result, they played a major role in the advertising campaign on "the mainland" which may have been much more significant. As far as I know, noone has ever got to the bottom of where the money they spent on this came from.

 

[Purple]

do you reckon this Free Presbyterian fundamentalism still dominates the DUP ?

The party of "Save Ulssssster from Sodomy!"? Maybe.

 

[WolfeTone]

I am arguing that the linking of the backstop to the need to preserve peace on the island is totally overblown and cynical.

No it is not.
Nobody is saying that all out war and a return to the Troubles will occur if NI is taken out of CU/SM. The only one referening it is your good self. So stop that now!

What is being said is that the prospect of a return to, or an increase in violence increases with the installation of border controls etc.
Everyone is in agreement with this, including the DUP and including your good self.

So to avoid any such scenario Britain and DUP keep telling Ireland that there will be no checks as in fact there is actually no need for border checks or controls. This is totally cynical and contradictory to what Brexit is supposed to be about - taking control of UK borders, but under no circumstances applying checks at UK borders!
So for three years it has been asked of the British how can this work between RoI and NI. No plausible answer has ever been given. If it existed, we would have heard about it by now.
Instead, those promises of technological solutions have been reduced to promises of "under no circumstances" will the UK impose border checks.

In the event of a free trade deal (that will most certainly look identical to all arrangements in existence today) that indeed will be the case.
In the event of no free trade deal, then the backstop kicks in - ensuring an orderly continuance of affairs between the UK and EU, although from an Irish perspective, the backstop is sufficient to NI.

What confidence does anybody have in this British government negotiating a free trade deal with the EU by end of transition period?

This is calamity politics.

A bumbling procession of one Tory cock-up after another. A party trying to salvage itself and putting the future of its nation in limbo, to say the least. Manifesting itself in the worst kind of English inward looking nationalism, Farage, Robinson et all. And now spreading to the flag-waving, drum beating Orange shores of East Antrim.

It is all the EU's fault. Straight bananas, kippers, prawn cocktail crisps.

It is an embarrassment.

There is no way, in anyway shape or form, the future of Irish people on this island be left to the prehistoric vanities exuding from the Glorious Revolution.

It is 2019 - these clowns need a dose of reality. A dose of the here and now.

 

[Purple]

No it is not.
Nobody is saying that all out war and a return to the Troubles will occur if NI is taken out of CU/SM. The only one referening it is your good self. So stop that now!

What is being said is that the prospect of a return to, or an increase in violence increases with the installation of border controls etc.
Everyone is in agreement with this, including the DUP and including your good self.

So to avoid any such scenario Britain and DUP keep telling Ireland that there will be no checks as in fact there is actually no need for border checks or controls. This is totally cynical and contradictory to what Brexit is supposed to be about - taking control of UK borders, but under no circumstances applying checks at UK borders!
So for three years it has been asked of the British how can this work between RoI and NI. No plausible answer has ever been given. If it existed, we would have heard about it by now.
Instead, those promises of technological solutions have been reduced to promises of "under no circumstances" will the UK impose border checks.

In the event of a free trade deal (that will most certainly look identical to all arrangements in existence today) that indeed will be the case.
In the event of no free trade deal, then the backstop kicks in - ensuring an orderly continuance of affairs between the UK and EU, although from an Irish perspective, the backstop is sufficient to NI.

What confidence does anybody have in this British government negotiating a free trade deal with the EU by end of transition period?

I think that the Backstop is a major issue and that without it there is a significant chance of a return to Nationalist terrorism but I also think that it is being used as leverage as the real issue is east-west trade.

This is calamity politics.

A bumbling procession of one Tory cock-up after another. A party trying to salvage itself and putting the future of its nation in limbo, to say the least. Manifesting itself in the worst kind of English inward looking nationalism, Farage, Robinson et all. And now spreading to the flag-waving, drum beating Orange shores of East Antrim.

It is all the EU's fault. Straight bananas, kippers, prawn cocktail crisps.

It is an embarrassment.

There is no way, in anyway shape or form, the future of Irish people on this island be left to the prehistoric vanities exuding from the Glorious Revolution.

It is 2019 - these clowns need a dose of reality. A dose of the here and now.

I agree with your views on the Tories. The awful thing is I'd still vote for BoJo any day of the week ahead of Commie-Corbyn.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Ah - I had forgotten about this particular fulmination from the lovely Reverend. But do you reckon this Free Presbyterian fundamentalism still dominates the DUP ? Do they make up a majority of its membership (I haven't a clue about this) ?

I would have thought that the main thing uniting the thinking of its followers now is The Union. Anything seen as protecting this is good, anything else is bad. It was in this context that I thought they plumped for Brexit (maybe not). If so, although a tactical victory I suspect it may turn into a strategic defeat.

Incidentally, although the number of votes they brought in for Brexit in NI may have been inconsequential in the overall result, they played a major role in the advertising campaign on "the mainland" which may have been much more significant. As far as I know, noone has ever got to the bottom of where the money they spent on this came from.

I don't think the DUP thought too strategically about their positioning in the 2016 referendum. Everything in NI is seen through a sectarian lens. I would have been pleasantly shocked if the DUP, given their Paisleyite DNA, had been for Remain. I was pleasantly surprised that the Ulster Unionists were Remain, but unfortunately, partly due to the polarisation of the debate by our politicians, the Ulster Unionists are now indistinguishable from the DUP on this issue.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

No it is not.
Nobody is saying that all out war and a return to the Troubles will occur if NI is taken out of CU/SM. The only one referening it is your good self. So stop that now!

What is being said is that the prospect of a return to, or an increase in violence increases with the installation of border controls etc.
Everyone is in agreement with this, including the DUP and including your good self.

I don't think that when Barnier or Pelossi talk about the threat to peace they have in mind a marginalised resistance to border infrastructure by dissidents. That really would be the tail wagging the dog. They are thinking of all out civil unrest on a scale similar to what we have seen in the recent past. Leo should really take Barnier aside and tell him, hey it won't be all that bad, we will manage it.

So to avoid any such scenario Britain and DUP keep telling Ireland that there will be no checks as in fact there is actually no need for border checks or controls. This is totally cynical and contradictory to what Brexit is supposed to be about - taking control of UK borders, but under no circumstances applying checks at UK borders!
So for three years it has been asked of the British how can this work between RoI and NI. No plausible answer has ever been given. If it existed, we would have heard about it by now.
Instead, those promises of technological solutions have been reduced to promises of "under no circumstances" will the UK impose border checks.

I have been watching Bojo's lips. He is saying that under no circumstances will their be customs infra structure on the border. That does not preclude their being such infra structure a few feet inside the border, it is meaningless.

 

[Early Riser]

An interesting article in today's IT, including one plausible outcome - an unpalatable one for the DUP:

We must consider revisiting the ‘Northern Ireland only’ backstop

Boris Johnson’s no-deal Brexit threats could frighten MPs into supporting such a backstop

www.irishtimes.com

 

[Early Riser]

I agree with your views on the Tories. The awful thing is I'd still vote for BoJo any day of the week ahead of Commie-Corbyn.

Or the Lib-Dems?

 

[Sophrosyne]

It is 2019 - these clowns need a dose of reality. A dose of the here and now.

Here's hoping.

Brexit is the mission of a Tory minority who ignite irrational fears and prejudices to further their cause.

They have no economic plan, other than to leave the EU.

They are conceited and at the very least mendacious or at worst, downright stupid because of an inability to hang on to detail or understand basic facts.

They dismiss all attempts to explain the very real risks to the UK economy by the facile “project fear” slogan.

Boris, the lovable clown, their current puppet and willing mouthpiece, relays their hogwash in order to play at being PM.

The benefits to UK businesses of EU negotiated trade agreements – better than any the UK could negotiate by itself - is lost on them.

Once it crashes out, the UK will be in a trade agreement limbo for years.

Then the chickens will come home to roost and it won't be pretty.

 

[Purple]

Here's hoping.

Brexit is the mission of a Tory minority who ignite irrational fears and prejudices to further their cause.

They have no economic plan, other than to leave the EU.

They are conceited and at the very least mendacious or at worst, downright stupid because of an inability to hang on to detail or understand basic facts.

They dismiss all attempts to explain the very real risks to the UK economy by the facile “project fear” slogan.

Boris, the lovable clown, their current puppet and willing mouthpiece, relays their hogwash in order to play at being PM.

The benefits to UK businesses of EU negotiated trade agreements – better than any the UK could negotiate by itself - is lost on them.

Once it crashes out, the UK will be in a trade agreement limbo for years.

Then the chickens will come home to roost and it won't be pretty.

And it will all be the fault of those foreigners in the EU.

 

[Purple]

Or the Lib-Dems?

Yes, it would have to be them with what's-her-face in charge.

 

[Sophrosyne]

And it will all be the fault of those foreigners in the EU.

Even that will wear out over time as it only relates to a trade deal with the EU.

Once it leaves the EU, the UK cannot benefit from EU negotiated trade deals with non-EU countries.

It will have to negotiate its own agreements and will not be in the same position of power as the EU.

 

[Purple]

Even that will wear out over time as it only relates to a trade deal with the EU.

Once it leaves the EU, the UK cannot benefit from EU negotiated trade deals with non-EU countries.

It will have to negotiate its own agreements and will not be in the same position of power as the EU.

In 5-6 years, unshackled from the Frogs, Micks and Krauts in the EU, they will have regained their Imperial might and vigor and will actually have a bigger economy then the entire EU. Within 20 years the EU will have joined the Commonwealth. In the meantime monkeys will have flown out of my ass.

 

[joe sod]

But once the Brexit issue is settled one way or another the Irish government will need to go about establishing a forum on the future of Ireland. A border poll is inevitable within the next 10 years.

i think a united ireland is further away now than it was with all this brexit shenanigans, everybody has gone back to their trenches . If a United Ireland was ever on the cards it would be because we are moving closer together, but we are not, and its not because of brexit, we have been diverging long before that even with nationalists in northern ireland. Even if brexit turns out to be a disaster for britain i think northern ireland wont choose to unite with us but they might choose to be an independent state.

 

[Early Riser]

i think a united ireland is further away now than it was with all this brexit shenanigans, everybody has gone back to their trenches . If a United Ireland was ever on the cards it would be because we are moving closer together, but we are not, and its not because of brexit, we have been diverging long before that even with nationalists in northern ireland. Even if brexit turns out to be a disaster for britain i think northern ireland wont choose to unite with us but they might choose to be an independent state.

Perhaps. But a poll is inevitable, whatever the outcome might be. Before there is a poll there needs to be a fairly clear picture of what might be meant by a united Ireland. I don't think anyone would envisage just encapsulating NI into the Republic. There will need to be a forum before any referendum to tease out what it is that is being talked about. Unlike Brexit, give people an informed choice.