The screw is being turned on the DUP

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WolfeTone

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First Leo, now Angela.

Yesterday, Leo Vradakar proposed that the option of a NI only backstop is still a real possibility to resolve the backstop issue. Today Angela Merkel is reported as having said this


Reading between the lines, everything is pointing at the British Government to bring the DUP to heel. The DUP being the political party representing a minority view in NI on Brexit.

For the moment, its a numbers game in the parliament, with the Tories wanting to avoid an election or get ravaged by the Brexit Party and a possible Corbyn led government. A new leader however, with uncompromising, unflinching rhethoric on exiting the EU on 31st Oct may salvage some of the wreckage.

Real politik is descending, the future is not set by flag-waving and idealism. It is set by the practical political realities of the time. Is the British electorate going to put up with another delay to Brexit, another referendum, a no-deal Brexit, or no Brexit at all? All because the DUP don't want to be "treated differently"?
 

cremeegg

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Boris could agree to a NI only backstop and deliver Brexit with a deal. A win all round, only the DUP will see if differently.

Westminister is bringing NI marriage and abortion legislation into line with Englands, can be sold as strengthening the Union. Again only the DUP unhappy.

It is realistic that he could get a majority in parliament to vote for this both Tory and Labour MPs.

Best PM ever.
 

odyssey06

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It is realistic that he could get a majority in parliament to vote for this both Tory and Labour MPs. Best PM ever.
If he did that, wouldn't the DUP immediately withdraw their support from the minority Conservative government, and trigger a general election?
Boris could be back as PM with a majority... or he could be gone as the shortest serving PM ever.
High risk strategy.
 

WolfeTone

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I think its a tricky one. I would go with what Merkel is pointing at - a form of words that is more specific.
It serves no-one well if any party loses face at the end of this process. The task is to treat NI differently to rest of UK so as to avoid hard border and protect single market without having to say it is being treated differently.
The DUP need to do some legwork and jump through hoops here. The EU, rest of UK, and Ireland are basically in this position because, in practical terms, the DUP cannot accept goods travelling between NI to Britain being checked at customs in already existing air and sea ports.
 

joe sod

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If he did that, wouldn't the DUP immediately withdraw their support from the minority Conservative government, and trigger a general election?
Boris could be back as PM with a majority... or he could be gone as the shortest serving PM ever.
High risk strategy.
The last vote by theresa may which came fairly close to passing was scuppered by remainer mps and not the brexiteers, boris johnson and jacob rees moggs voted for it. Maybe now the dup and brexiteers are happy to just crash out. Somebody has to give a bit to break the impasse , we are the most exposed to a hard brexit than anybody. Therefore I dont see boris johnson dumping on the dup, he will roll the whole way to october 31 unless there is change. Whereas theresa may ran all over the place to europe to dublin trying to get movement he will just sit and wait
 

WolfeTone

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Boris will do what's best for Boris.

Johnson is in, no surprise there.

I was reminded by a colleague of history repeating itself.
In 1912, upon the passing of the Home Rule Bill into British law, the British government would subsequently disregard the interests of Ireland as whole, succumb to the minority viewpoint of Ulster Unionists and usurp its own parliament. Through the threat of violence from the UVF, the British government reneged on its own law and put the interests of a minority over the interests of Ireland as a whole, paving the way for the Rising, rebellion, civil war and 'The Troubles'.

It is 2019 and as it stands, the minority view of the people of NI (let alone Ireland) is the prevailing view of the prospective PM - that NI cannot be treated differently to the rest of UK upon leaving the EU.
When has a British government ever put the interests of Ireland ahead of its own narrow party political agenda?
 

Peanuts20

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If the Tories bring the DUP "to heal" then its a General Election- no reason what so ever for the DUP to support them and they will, sooner or later pull the plug. Anything else is wishful thinking

The DUP are unlikely to loose any seats due to the nature of NI politics. Regardless of local elections, historical tribalism coupled with a weak UUP will see to that

Very few people "on the mainland" give 2 hoots about NI as long as no bombs are going off in their mainland cities and none of their soldiers are getting shot.
 

cremeegg

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Does Boris' election as leader of the Tories automatically make him prime minister. Does he not need to be elected by parliament. Hardly a foregone conclusion.

When Enda resigned Fine Gael chose Leo as their new leader, but the Dáil elected him Taoiseach.
 

Peanuts20

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At least Boris was elected by the majority of members of his party, unlike our own current leader
 

WolfeTone

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So we are still in this place;

- Boris, PM

"And next I say to our friends in Ireland, and in Brussels and around the EU: I am convinced that we can do a deal without checks at the Irish border, because we refuse under any circumstances to have such checks"

- British Government, Nov 2018

Taking Back Control of Our Borders

- Free movement will end
- New controls for a fairer immigration system

What am I missing? Is it, by any chance,god forbid....that London regards the UK/EU border in Ireland to be somewhat...different...to the UK/EU borders in Britian?

Has anyone told the DUP?
 

EmmDee

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So we are still in this place;

- Boris, PM

"And next I say to our friends in Ireland, and in Brussels and around the EU: I am convinced that we can do a deal without checks at the Irish border, because we refuse under any circumstances to have such checks"

- British Government, Nov 2018

Taking Back Control of Our Borders

- Free movement will end
- New controls for a fairer immigration system

What am I missing? Is it, by any chance,god forbid....that London regards the UK/EU border in Ireland to be somewhat...different...to the UK/EU borders in Britian?

Has anyone told the DUP?
It is different. It is covered by the free movement agreement between UK and Ireland which is planned to keep - we're not part of Schengen for example and originally the plan was for us to remain out of it for this reason
 

WolfeTone

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It is different. It is covered by the free movement agreement between UK and Ireland which is planned to keep - we're not part of Schengen for example and originally the plan was for us to remain out of it for this reason
Which confirms that the DUP, who represent a minority view on Brexit in NI, are perpetrating a hoax on Ireland, Britain and EU. This whole backstop nonsense could be over tomorrow if the backstop is simply applied to NI. Facilitating what the DUP (and everyone else) want - an open border with frictionless trade and free movement between RoI and NI. Which is opposite to what Brexit is actually about.
So the DUP hoax of "not wanting to be treated differently" should be called out, and a tiny rump of politicians in the North East of Ireland with a minority view on Brexit should not be allowed to invoke a no-deal Brexit and the subsequent disruption for trade and relations between Ireland, UK and EU.
 

Seagull

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If Boris tries to push through a no-deal, then there will be a call of no confidence in the government, and enough conservatives will back it to trigger an election.
 

EmmDee

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Which confirms that the DUP, who represent a minority view on Brexit in NI, are perpetrating a hoax on Ireland, Britain and EU. This whole backstop nonsense could be over tomorrow if the backstop is simply applied to NI. Facilitating what the DUP (and everyone else) want - an open border with frictionless trade and free movement between RoI and NI. Which is opposite to what Brexit is actually about.
So the DUP hoax of "not wanting to be treated differently" should be called out, and a tiny rump of politicians in the North East of Ireland with a minority view on Brexit should not be allowed to invoke a no-deal Brexit and the subsequent disruption for trade and relations between Ireland, UK and EU.
That was the original EU proposal (and the first draft of the agreement). The DUP objected because it would create a border between NI and the rest of the UK. So the EU, at the request of May, extended the proposal to the whole of the UK.

If they weren't reliant on DUP votes, I'm pretty sure most of Westminster would be grand with a NI only backstop tbh.
 

WolfeTone

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If they weren't reliant on DUP votes, I'm pretty sure most of Westminster would be grand with a NI only backstop tbh.
Exactly, and it needs to be called out. Not only to facilitate an orderly Brexit but to expose the lie that is inherent in the DUP position - that they don't want to treated differently or separately to rest of UK, when in actual fact they are on record for calling for different and separate conditions to be applied to the UK/EU border in Ireland compared with UK/EU borders in Britain.
 

EmmDee

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Exactly, and it needs to be called out. Not only to facilitate an orderly Brexit but to expose the lie that is inherent in the DUP position - that they don't want to treated differently or separately to rest of UK, when in actual fact they are on record for calling for different and separate conditions to be applied to the UK/EU border in Ireland compared with UK/EU borders in Britain.
The difference in the NI / Ireland border vs the UK / EU border elsewhere isn't a lie in the DUP position - that difference and added complexity is driven by the Good Friday agreement. In fairness to the DUP, their desire not to have NI separated from the rest of the UK is probably intellectually consistent given their point of view. They also haven't called for there to be a difference... they are supporting an exit even without a deal and just claiming that can be accommodated within the GFA (which is questionable). If there was a FTA established it would cover the entire UK - again they are looking for same treatment as GB

I just think they missed a beat here - they could have proposed that NI be treated differently and have a parallel system which allowed it be open to Ireland and still recognised as part of the Union. Almost a free trade zone with some form of dual-certification recognised by the EU and UK. They would have gained a load of political brownie points for finding a solution and created a unique trading zone that could have attracted a ton of inward investment and ironically made a border poll less likely as it would have had the benefits of both EU and UK access and therefore difficult to give up. I'm pretty sure the EU would have been more flexible about that and Westminster would have supported if DUP were behind it
 

WolfeTone

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The difference in the NI / Ireland border vs the UK / EU border elsewhere isn't a lie in the DUP position
I would have to respectfully disagree. It is set out clearly in the British Government EU Exit document above that taking back control of borders means an end to free movement and new controls for a fairer immigration system.
If there are no border and customs controls required at the UK/EU between NI and RoI, as the DUP claim, then why would there be any need for border and customs controls at the UK/EU borders in Britain?
 
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