November 3, 2020: Consolidated General Election.

Trump into 6 on Betfair. That is the throw of a dice or more aptly Russian Roulette with a 6 chamber revolver. Too early for easing up on the rosaries.
 
Surely, it's all over now? The Trump era is over! Insofar as his run as President goes anyway, I'm sure he will make a lot of noise for a considerable amount of time.

The Betfair price of 1.13 is surely the best guaranteed return (barring civil war) anywhere? Im certainly taking a piece of it, do some repairs to my losses overall in this market.
 
Don't count your chickens. Georgia and Nevada on a knife edge. North Carolina looking solid to go to Trump.
 

... given your self admitted betting history - I might have to close out my Biden bet

 
... given your self admitted betting history - I might have to close out my Biden bet



Yes, even my last minute declaration for Biden was met with a reversal of market prices, albeit temporary, in favour of Trump.

Hazzard warning all round!
 
Don't count your chickens. Georgia and Nevada on a knife edge. North Carolina looking solid to go to Trump.
Betfair has Nevada at 1.07 (93%). I think we can bag that, but I share your nervous pessimism. This is agony, rather like a very long drawn out Russian Roulette play.
 
Georgia and Pennsylvania are incredibly close. Whilst it provides great excitement for us over here, it's really sad that the US is so fragmented right now. Given there is already talk of Donald Jr for 2024, I see very little hope that things will improve much over the next term.
 
In a race this tight, I'm surprised there hasn't been a little more thought give to the impact of other 3rd party candidates on polling and on the results. In Florida for example, 115k people (about 1%) voted Green, Libertanian and other parties. I do wonder if they are included in pollsters canvasing or are they excluded and are people presented with just 2 choices?. Since these are often people (greens as an example) who would not vote for Trump, did that inflate Biden in the polls by 1-2%?

In most other states the % of 3rd party vote is higher, 1.5% in Arizona for example and in a race this tight, that is crucial

I can't help but wonder also if Trump will go quietly into the night or would his ego see him start his own party outside of the Republican party?
 
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It is incredible that the religious conservatism within the Latino community shifts so many of them into the Trump camp.
I don't think we fully grasp how big an issue abortion is in the US. It is probably a bigger issue than gun control and certainly bigger than same sex marriage and LGBTQ rights.
 
Saw an interview with a Latino in Miami. She was Cuban and she said she knew what it was like to live under Communism, that’s why she voted Trump. The idea that the Democratic Party is communist is farcical,
 
Saw an interview with a Latino in Miami. She was Cuban and she said she knew what it was like to live under Communism, that’s why she voted Trump. The idea that the Democratic Party is communist is farcical,

If you had a dollar for every time a Democrat called a Republican a fascist incorrectly you'd be very wealthy.
 
Florida in general and Miami in particular, have that Cuban dynamic. They are strongly Republican.
It's that I'm talking about; the Archbishop of St. Louis having a letter read from every pulpit in his diocese basically telling people that they aren't proper Catholics if they don't vote for Trump.
 
If you had a dollar for every time a Democrat called a Republican a fascist incorrectly you'd be very wealthy.
You've be just as rich if you got the dollar for every time a Republican called a Democrat a communist incorrectly.
 
Saw an interview with a Latino in Miami. She was Cuban and she said she knew what it was like to live under Communism, that’s why she voted Trump. The idea that the Democratic Party is communist is farcical,

Cubans and Venezuelans in Florida have a distrust of Democrats - streches back to JFK. It's almost like the old FF / FG cultural divide here from the 70's
 
My Grandma wouldn't even speak the word Democrat if there were children in the house, she'd use the word <insert word for illegitimate male offsprings here>
- PJ O'Rourke
 
Cubans and Venezuelans in Florida have a distrust of Democrats - streches back to JFK. It's almost like the old FF / FG cultural divide here from the 70's
I'd say it goes far deeper than the the FF/FG thing.