November 3, 2020: Consolidated General Election.

Purple said:
There was no gaffe, there was no slip of the tongue. It requires intentional and deliberate misinterpretation
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Leo said:
It's not deliberate misinterpretation.
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I'll respectfully hand you over to Purple if he is willing to oblige? I've explained myself, the error of my ways and the underlying point I was making, agree or not.

Leo said:
he continuously quotes snippets from people out of context and then let's people like yourself join dots that don't exist to arrive at a wrong conclusion.
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I think you have recent form in that regard also?
 
Michael Moore, one of the very few high profile pundits to warn of a Trump victory in 2016 was sounding alarm bells again in the State of Michigan. In August he proclaimed that enthusiasm amongst Trump supporters was "off the charts".
More recently he warns of Democrats making the same mistakes again in that State - Democrat candidate not visiting black areas in Flint, accepting and advertising the endorsement of former governor Rick Synder, and for some peculiar reason, lack of Biden signage to promote his campaign.

It's not a scientific methodology, but as he called it correct last time, I think deserving of attention.
 
Not been paying so much attention, but policy wise would Biden and Harris be in similar space?
As in if Biden wins, and for whatever reason (either he stands down or else doesn't run next time and VP wins), should we expect continuity of policy?
 
odyssey06 said:
Not been paying so much attention, but policy wise would Biden and Harris be in similar space?
As in if Biden wins, and for whatever reason (either he stands down or else doesn't run next time and VP wins), should we expect continuity of policy?
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They run on a mandate - so in theory that would remain the same. But the President doesn't initiate legidlation. The Congress does. The President does have executive order powers but there are limits on what can be achieved with these.

The Democrats control the House (and probably will do comfortably after the election). So really, it's the Senate that will determine policy. If the Republicans hold control of the Senate then nothing gets done. The best the Democrats can hope for for is about 54 / 46. Even with that they don't have enough to push through significant structural change - that needs a 60 / 40 majority unless they remove the filibuster rule. It's important to remember that even with a majority in the Senate, a significant portion of the Democratic Senators would be centrist or from conservative states. So they wouldn't support "radical" legislation. It's the reason the original "Obama Care" legislation was watered down to some extent even with a Democratic Senate.
 
This is my final call on this. I was positively optimistic that after Trump got elected that what would emerge in this US election would be that the great American people would bring about some fundamental or radical change to the politics of the old.

I started out early, three years ago, with a bet on Elizabeth Warren as having an outside chance at 12/1, thinking that despite HC's loss, that women are coming into the ascendency of American politics.

Then Gabbard, she was my ray of hope @80/1 and her odds did come in to about 25/1 at one point, but she got stitched up by DNC rule changes. I was convinced then that HC was planning a late surprise entrance so I covered that option at long odds of 60/1.

Then it was Michael Yangs turn, then it was Bernie's turn, but when they went bust it was starting to look desperate.

And indeed, a great hope arrived on the Twitter rumour mill around June this year that Jesse 'The Body' Ventura was going to make a late entrance for the Greens. What harm a €3 bet @ 1,000/1 ? His odds did temporarily move into 990/1.

So I have resigned myself to a reality that I just do not understand American politics. Two old white men is the best they conjure up. It really is a sad sorry state of affairs, similar to my betting options.

I am utterly unenthused by Biden and I cannot bring myself to back Trump

So final call is - Harris €2@ 1,000/1. :)
 
WolfeTone said:
Two old white men is the best they conjure up.
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Well, perhaps the most enduring institution on Earth is the RC church, and that is the model they follow.

So final call is - Harris €2@ 1,000/1. :)
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If that is on Betfair, it is already lost. Betfair market is on who will win the Electoral College vote, not on who will be next Presie. 1000 is a measure of the granularity of the platform, you never get more than 1,000 on Betfair. Note that all the runners except the top two are a Buy at 1,000 but are not available at all as a Lay.
 
I think The Donald will do it. There's be an Orange Wall (as opposed to a Red Wall or a Build the Wall)
 
And within those States it all hinges on white middle class urban women, the ones who voted against Hillary last time.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Of course he needs more than P, but if P goes I think the dominos fall.
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Possibly but it will be one of the last to declare. Florida will be counted on the night (and a few others like Arizona I think). If Florida goes definitively one way or another, Penn doesn't matter. North Carolina will be something like 97% counted on the night as well. But if those two are knife-edge then there is a long week ahead

Purple said:
And within those States it all hinges on white middle class urban women, the ones who voted against Hillary last time.
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They are an important section but not the only one. Non-voters from 2016 are also key. Along with a swing with seniors in Florida, the changing demographics in Atlanta and Houston / Texas - particularly new voters.
 
EmmDee said:
They are an important section but not the only one. Non-voters from 2016 are also key. Along with a swing with seniors in Florida, the changing demographics in Atlanta and Houston / Texas - particularly new voters.
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Yes, Houston is the most ethnically diverse city in the US. It's also one of my least favourite to visit. The Trump supporters there are VERY strong supporters.
 
For the election nerds these are great graphics to play with;
Firstly CNN's build your own election map .
Secondly Fox's Election Probability Dials here.
 
I think Trump will take Florida. He's 2 points ahead with those likely to vote.
 
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