November 3, 2020: Consolidated General Election.

WolfeTone

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Former Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich "... Democrats steal the election, and that's what Republicans believe we are watching. We think we have evidence of a lot of it.... frankly, I think it is a corrupt stolen election..."

The level of distrust and the deep division is almost palpable. Gingrich spoke of the last 4 years, impeachment, Pelosi, hatred...

I think it is a mistake to think that US politics is returning to any level of normality anytime soon.
 

Duke of Marmalade

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I think we can see now that Biden was an inspired choice. This was a referendum on Trump. The Yes vote claimed a record 70m result. I don't think Biden put anybody off voting Yes but then no other candidate would have done so either. But neither did he put off anybody voting No. Someone like Bernie Sanders would have persuaded many No voters to abstain.
 

Purple

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I think it is a mistake to think that US politics is returning to any level of normality anytime soon.
Normalcy, you have to say normalcy (instead of normality) when talking about the US. Personally I hate the word and, given it's a noun, "normal" would do fine where either is used. Considering I can't spell I really have no place being so persnickety about things like grammer, punctuation and word (mis)usage but it still gets to me. It's now up there with "Pacifically".
 

odyssey06

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If postal voting was so easy to 'nudge', did the Russians forget this time to help out Trump - as they are alleged to have done last time...
 

EmmDee

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If postal voting was so easy to 'nudge', did the Russians forget this time to help out Trump - as they are alleged to have done last time...

They weren't accused of tampering with votes last time, they were accused of interering in the election through misinformation.

The other thing that will need explaining is how the Senate votes were fine but the Presedential votes were not - when they are on the same ballot.

This is just a smokescreen to placate him for a few weeks. It'll be done eventually
 
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odyssey06

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The final electoral college tally of the US election is in: with 306 electoral college votes projected for Democrat Joe Biden, and 232 for Republican Donald Trump.
This is an exact flip of the final vote in 2016 – when Trump won 306 electoral votes, and the Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton won 232.
Popular vote-wise, Biden won 77.5 million votes (50.8%) compared to the 72.3 million (47.4%) who voted for Trump, a 5 million vote advantage
US President-elect Biden won the states of Arizona and Georgia today, the New York Times, CNN, ABC and other networks said, while Trump won North Carolina.
Biden’s win in Arizona represents a ‘flipping’ of the state to Democrat for the first time since 1996, when Bill Clinton won the state’s support for his White House bid.

 

EmmDee

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Easiest 6% otherwise. I'm keeping an eye on the pot, when it starts to empty out might be the time to back it.

The pot will keep topping up - whether new money or people cashing out. At the moment there is €1.7mm offered at 1.06, €2.4mm at 1.05 and €2.2mm at 1.04. So you'll be waiting a while
 

WolfeTone

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I know the dates - I was referring to your comment that you'd wait for the "pot" to empty out

Yes. My guess is that the closer we get to 14th then, in the absence of some court decision to suggest otherwise, then Biden will be likely to be formally announced as President. This will induce alot of punters to take up that offer (conversely alot of punters to cancel the offer) of €2m+ sitting at 1.06, and of 1.05 and of 1.04 etc....meaning those pots will be emptied out by punters backing those prices and cancelling the offer. When that starts to occur, that may be the time to back it as it signifies an almost certain outcome. So if you can get 6%, all the better.
 

Duke of Marmalade

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Yes. My guess is that the closer we get to 14th then, in the absence of some court decision to suggest otherwise, then Biden will be likely to be formally announced as President. This will induce alot of punters to take up that offer (conversely alot of punters to cancel the offer) of €2m+ sitting at 1.06, and of 1.05 and of 1.04 etc....meaning those pots will be emptied out by punters backing those prices and cancelling the offer. When that starts to occur, that may be the time to back it as it signifies an almost certain outcome. So if you can get 6%, all the better.
It does seem absolutely inconceivable that Biden's victory will be overturned. Nonetheless, I have huge respect for Betfair. They were calling this election much closer than opinion polls suggested and they were correct. Betfair is as close to an Efficient Market as I have seen. If €2m is available at 6% then 6% is the correct assessment much as that seems most improbable. They are also open for betting on the various swing states with pay offs ranging from 4% to 7%.
 

WolfeTone

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It does seem absolutely inconceivable that Biden's victory will be overturned.

Yes and what is perplexing me is that if you look at the betting graph, €57m has been matched at this price of 1.06. It is the largest tranche of matched bets in market with near €800m matched. This suggests that betting activity is at its most intense (for want of a better word) at this price, which I find peculiar.
It generally means that the market is tight at that price.
Now, I generally do these types of bets for novelty, I mostly concentrate on team sports to get value because I have an more informed knowledge about soccer and GAA than predicting election outcomes. A bet at 1.06 in a sports match signifies a near certain result. However, at such a price, a freakish own goal, controversial penalty or simply a touch a genius can overturn all expected outcomes in an instant.

So what is the freakish own goal, penalty or bit of genius that is propping up this market at 1.06? The only plausible thing I can think of is that Biden is near the average life-expectancy age!
Even still, it seems a bit cold to limit the man's prospects of being declared winner in a few weeks time on this basis, if this is what is occurring?
 

EmmDee

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Yes and what is perplexing me is that if you look at the betting graph, €57m has been matched at this price of 1.06. It is the largest tranche of matched bets in market with near €800m matched. This suggests that betting activity is at its most intense (for want of a better word) at this price, which I find peculiar.
It generally means that the market is tight at that price.
Now, I generally do these types of bets for novelty, I mostly concentrate on team sports to get value because I have an more informed knowledge about soccer and GAA than predicting election outcomes. A bet at 1.06 in a sports match signifies a near certain result. However, at such a price, a freakish own goal, controversial penalty or simply a touch a genius can overturn all expected outcomes in an instant.

So what is the freakish own goal, penalty or bit of genius that is propping up this market at 1.06? The only plausible thing I can think of is that Biden is near the average life-expectancy age!
Even still, it seems a bit cold to limit the man's prospects of being declared winner in a few weeks time on this basis, if this is what is occurring?

Even if Biden dies at this stage I believe Betfair would pay out for him as the EC votes will be confirmed for him.

The 1.06, I think, reflects the risk of (a) one of the speculative legal challanges makes it to the Supreme Court (unlikely given 23 have failed so far) or (b) a number of the states select faithless voters - they vote for a candidate different to the votes (again a very long shot - and not clear that it's possible). But any of these need to be replicated in more than one state.

It's essentially a premium for the risk of a coup - it's political risk. But it does seem odd
 
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