Longest Bull Market in History

Discussion in 'Investments' started by Sarenco, 23 Aug 2018.

  1. joe sod

    joe sod Frequent Poster

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    Im taking the data from macrotrends showing the performance of S&P 500 over 90 years. There is a caveat, it is inflation adjusted so the index for past years like 2000 all the way back to 1930 is readjusted to reflect todays prices

    https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data
     
  2. landlord

    landlord Frequent Poster

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    You might want to look at the charts again. The s&p is now back at where it was near the start of 2017.
     
  3. galway_blow_in

    galway_blow_in Frequent Poster

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    Your way off!, the s+p wasn't even @ 1600 in the year 2000.
     
  4. joe sod

    joe sod Frequent Poster

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    yes, but its the inflation adjusted charts im talking about as I explained in above post. It re adjusts year 2000 level to reflect todays prices and 18 years of inflation.

    https://www.advisorperspectives.com...s-p-500-dow-and-nasdaq-since-their-2000-highs

    "The charts require little explanation. So far the 21st Century has not been especially kind to equity investors. Yes, markets do bounce back, but often in time frames that defy optimistic expectations."

    There is still a positive return but only when you include dividends and reinvesting them. This is from April 2018 levels so also does not include the big sell off over the last few months.
     
  5. Sarenco

    Sarenco Frequent Poster

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    FWIW, the S&P500 has just had its best January since 1987.

    Again, not predictive of anything but interesting nonetheless (IMO).
     
  6. Connard

    Connard Frequent Poster

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    The S&P 500 is higher right now than it was in April 2008.
     
  7. joe sod

    joe sod Frequent Poster

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    yes but it followed the worst december since 1929 another poster pointed out before. Ultimately it doesnt matter because they have cancelled each other out as irrelevant noise. I think in the era of computer trading looking for patterns from the past before computer trading was a factor is now a useless activity. Because the very fact that you have computers trading is a huge factor in itself therefore when there is volatility it is much more rapid and violent than in the past.
     
  8. Sarenco

    Sarenco Frequent Poster

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    The longest bull market in history has just celebrated its 10th anniversary!:)

    In the wake of the financial crisis, the S&P hit an intraday low of 666 (eerie, huh?) on 6 March 2009 and has since increased by over 300%, without a 20%+ drawdown.

    I don't think that's predictive of what might happen in the future but I think it's interesting nevertheless.
     
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  9. joe sod

    joe sod Frequent Poster

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    On june 1 2000 S&P was at 1460, today its at 2748 almost 20 years later, an 88% increase on the june year 2000 figure. Both statistics 88% increase from year 2000, and 300% from 2009 are correct, but it just shows you how misleading quoting statistics in isolation are.
     
  10. Sarenco

    Sarenco Frequent Poster

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    What's your point? That your start and end point are vitally important? Of course they are!

    Why choose 1 June 2000 as your starting point? Why not, say, 1 June 1990? Or maybe 1 June 1980?

    The point I'm making is that we have just lived through a period of extraordinary calm in stock market history. 10 years without a single 20% drawdown? That's unprecedented!

    What will happen in the future? I've no idea.
     
  11. moneymakeover

    moneymakeover Frequent Poster

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  12. galway_blow_in

    galway_blow_in Frequent Poster

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  13. Sunny

    Sunny Frequent Poster

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  14. moneymakeover

    moneymakeover Frequent Poster

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  15. Sarenco

    Sarenco Frequent Poster

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    That's the generally accepted convention.

    But, if you want to be really nit-picky, the S&P has not had a drawdown at any close of 20% or more from any previous high for 10 years now. That's unprecedented.
     
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  16. RedOnion

    RedOnion Frequent Poster

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    As if anyone around here would do that!...
     
    lledlledlled likes this.
  17. galway_blow_in

    galway_blow_in Frequent Poster

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    Your just stating a fact, there were no 20% drawdowns in the s+p

    The likes of the DAX however has seen 20 % plus drawdowns almost every year this past five

    Europe is very volatile by comparison
     
  18. Sarenco

    Sarenco Frequent Poster

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    To be fair GBI, the DAX is comprised of only 30 stocks - financial theory suggests that should be more volatile than a more broadly diversified index, such as the S&P.

    But you're right - US stocks have significantly outperformed European stocks over the last 10 years.

    The direct opposite of what happened over the previous 10 years, when US stocks went nowhere.

    What's going to happen over the next 10 years? I've no idea.

    Best plan, IMO, is to hedge your bets.
     
  19. joe sod

    joe sod Frequent Poster

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    because you chose 6 march 2009 as your starting point, the deepest trough of the worst financial crash since the 1930s as your starting point, thats why. On the surface a 300% increase in S&P500 since 2009 seems dramatic, an 88% increase since year 2000 is not.
    And thats the best performing stock market in the world , what about europe back in recession again with european indices gone nowhere in 20 years.
     
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  20. galway_blow_in

    galway_blow_in Frequent Poster

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    I know it's sectoral but financials are an important component of the European stoxx 600

    Read an extraordinary piece a while back in which the author referred to an investor who on the day the euro came into existence embarked on a twenty year plan to buy the European banking index every day for twenty years

    He lost almost 99% of the time

    I'm not good at copy and paste with my phone but it's on reuters, " euro curse, bankings lost decades"