Longest Bull Market in History

Sarenco

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I think it's worth noting that as of yesterday, 22 August 2018, the S&P500 recorded its longest bull market in history - 3,453 days without a correction of 20% or more.

I don't think that constitutes actionable information but it's interesting nonetheless.
 

elacsaplau

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With market valuations at such elevated positions, there is a chance that the market could witness a correction, bringing it more in line with historic norms.
 

Sarenco

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Now, now. :p

For the avoidance of any doubt, I am making no predictions whatsoever about future stock prices.

Mind you, BTL residential property is looking increasingly attractive to me as an investment option - 8%+ gross yields are readily available accross Dublin at the moment.
 

Zenith63

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I guess I'm thinking about the fact that if I have €100k and put it in a bank account I get say 2% yield. If I buy an apartment for €100k maybe I could get 8% gross yield (€8k rent per annum). But if I take a mortgage to get an apartment at 80% LTV, I'll end up with a €500k which for simplicity might return five times as much rent (say €40k). What do you call the yield here which would be the rent achieved divided by the equity (€40k/€100k) 40%? It's not including loan interest costs, maintenance etc. so isn't net yield. Leveraged gross yield :)?
 

Sarenco

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Well, introducing leverage into the equation will obviously impact the net return on an investment but it doesn't change the gross yield ratio.

If you borrowed money and placed in on deposit that would similarly impact your net return but it doesn't change the deposit rate.
 

Nickname

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I think it is more important to look at is the high valuation of companies rather than how long the market is going up for.
 

joe sod

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What about the bond market thats been in bull territory since 1982, a whole 36 years. Interest rates are at historic lows , they can only go one way back up. So stocks are risky (albeit its only really the US in this long bull market), so are bonds except very short duration bonds, so is property all over the developed world. Whats not in a bull market? emerging markets are not, precious metals are not, commodities are not , european markerts are not really either, maybe sterling. So are you suggesting investing in these instead
 

galway_blow_in

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What about the bond market thats been in bull territory since 1982, a whole 36 years. Interest rates are at historic lows , they can only go one way back up. So stocks are risky (albeit its only really the US in this long bull market), so are bonds except very short duration bonds, so is property all over the developed world. Whats not in a bull market? emerging markets are not, precious metals are not, commodities are not , european markerts are not really either, maybe sterling. So are you suggesting investing in these instead
the european stoxx 600 is about 9% below its april 2015 all time high .
 

joe sod

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Well european and emerging markets are having a bad time now, (they are definitely not in a bull market) while the US market is at all time highs along with a very strong dollar. I have very few US stocks now, had been selling them down to focus on europe and emerging markets etfs and Uk investment trusts. The markets are telling me im wrong but I still think this is a sensible strategy. Its only the US markets that are in this decade long bull market also the bond markets are still sucking in huge money even tough they are at the lowest interest rates in history. Maybe Im wrong but I dont think so.
 

galway_blow_in

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Well european and emerging markets are having a bad time now, (they are definitely not in a bull market) while the US market is at all time highs along with a very strong dollar. I have very few US stocks now, had been selling them down to focus on europe and emerging markets etfs and Uk investment trusts. The markets are telling me im wrong but I still think this is a sensible strategy. Its only the US markets that are in this decade long bull market also the bond markets are still sucking in huge money even tough they are at the lowest interest rates in history. Maybe Im wrong but I dont think so.
The current raging bull market is exclusively a U. S phenomenon.

European stoxx 600 hasn't made new highs in nearly three and a half years.
 

galway_blow_in

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Well european and emerging markets are having a bad time now, (they are definitely not in a bull market) while the US market is at all time highs along with a very strong dollar. I have very few US stocks now, had been selling them down to focus on europe and emerging markets etfs and Uk investment trusts. The markets are telling me im wrong but I still think this is a sensible strategy. Its only the US markets that are in this decade long bull market also the bond markets are still sucking in huge money even tough they are at the lowest interest rates in history. Maybe Im wrong but I dont think so.
Trouble with that approach is Europe never sustains a rising market if America is going the other way

Europe is a follower.
 

joe sod

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The current raging bull market is exclusively a U. S phenomenon.

European stoxx 600 hasn't made new highs in nearly three and a half years.
but still the narrative we are hearing all the time is about stock markets being at all time highs when it is only the US market that this applies. Maybe there might be a crash like in 2001 after the dot com boom, everything fell but the high tech stocks were decimated. This time the tech stocks are leading the US markets up, maybe the potential correction will cause a big sell off in high tech stocks like in 2001 and the leadership in global stoock markets will change back to commodities ,energy and emerging markets like in 2001.
 

Gordon Gekko

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But the tech stocks in 2001 were largely joke companies built on nothing.

Companies like Amazon hardly have feet of clay.

Just because we had a financial crisis now everyone thinks they can call the next collapse.

Perhaps the US is expensive and Europe is cheap because the former has the greatest and most innovative companies on the planet?
 

joe sod

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But the tech stocks in 2001 were largely joke companies built on nothing.
Thats not the case , yes there were alot of joke companies but most of the capitalisation was actually proper high technology like microsoft, cisco and yes apple were also around in 2000. The investment in technolgy then resulted in the smart phones and social media and everything we take for granted now, it wasn't a joke
 

opexlong

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Perhaps the US is expensive and Europe is cheap because the former has the greatest and most innovative companies on the planet?
But where are the up and coming innovations that point to future successes (which have already been priced into valuations)? I'm not seeing it.
 
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galway_blow_in

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But the tech stocks in 2001 were largely joke companies built on nothing.

Companies like Amazon hardly have feet of clay.

Just because we had a financial crisis now everyone thinks they can call the next collapse.



Perhaps the US is expensive and Europe is cheap because the former has the greatest and most innovative companies on the planet?
Plus Americans have a culture of buying stocks for 401k pension plans or in general, germans hardly touch stocks, deeming them too risky and Irish people are penalised for investing in funds.

European markets heavily weighted towards financial and energy sector, low growth and old style business relative to tech dominant America.
 
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