Longest Bull Market in History

galway_blow_in

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yea but you keep making that point, but its still the case that european markets are better and better value, and emerging markets have done even worse than europe. I think we are entering a period like after 2001 and the dot com crash, although i dont think it will be as extreme as 2001, when the euro was actually worth less than the US dollar. I think Europe, emerging markets and commodities will out perform and the US market takes a back seat like what happened from 2001 to 2008, the canadian economy did much better than the US in that period, maybe also another global property bubble that seems to be well underway already.
Another striking point about the ftse index , its gone nowhere in 20 years and now has average yields of over 4%, yet people are bamboozled about all the negativity surrounding brexit, yet its hardly the case that the UK goes back to 1998
The period where Europe outperformed the usa from 2003 - 2007 was a bull market

I'm arguing if the U. S enters a bear market, there is no way europe won't join in.

European equities are always cheaper and the dollar strength since 2015 has made zero difference to European stocks.
 

joe sod

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The period where Europe outperformed the usa from 2003 - 2007 was a bull market
yea but not in the US, yes the us market recovered, but the leadership changed to the commodity and oil stocks in the US indexes, the boom after 2002 was in commodities, emerging markets, european stocks, but mainly real estate (which the irish economy was the worst hit later). Also significantly the US dollar depreciated from 0.9 dollars to the euro to 1.5 dollars to the euro, this is a huge factor, therefore the underperformance of the US against european stock markets was amplified by another 60% because of the depreciation of the dollar in that period. That is the warning from peter brown, yes exchange rates get ironed out in the long term (20 years usually) but in the next decade you could be hit on the double by investing in US assets at the wrong time .
 

galway_blow_in

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yea but not in the US, yes the us market recovered, but the leadership changed to the commodity and oil stocks in the US indexes, the boom after 2002 was in commodities, emerging markets, european stocks, but mainly real estate (which the irish economy was the worst hit later). Also significantly the US dollar depreciated from 0.9 dollars to the euro to 1.5 dollars to the euro, this is a huge factor, therefore the underperformance of the US against european stock markets was amplified by another 60% because of the depreciation of the dollar in that period. That is the warning from peter brown, yes exchange rates get ironed out in the long term (20 years usually) but in the next decade you could be hit on the double by investing in US assets at the wrong time .
Along with making new highs , the U. S market rose by more than 20% between early 2003 and late 2007,a bull market by any measure.

If the U. S market enters a lean few years Europe won't escape, emerging markets are much less in sync with the U. S equity markets than Europe so it might do its own thing.
 

joe sod

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Along with making new highs , the U. S market rose by more than 20% between early 2003 and late 2007,a bull market by any measure.
well the S & P 500 briefly touched off its year 2000 high in late 2007 for a day or two then rapidly deteriorated again along with the global financial crash of 2008, it didnt properly take out the 2000 high until late 2013, I think the dow suffered bigger extremes both up and down. Obviously if you are a long term investor the US has been the star performer but even Warren Buffet the perenial bull on US stocks started making big international investments after 2002 and also had big bets on the depreciating dollar in that period.
Because something has been true for a long time namely that the US is the only game in town, many people get fooled into making investments at the wrong time , the same thing happened in the late 90s, the US dot com boom attracted huge amounts of international capital which also drove up the value of the dollar, those investors then got hit on the double.
To emphasise again the ftse is back more or less to where it was 20 years , surely for a US investor with the pound /dollar rate at historic lows along with the ftse where it was 20 years ago, its a no brainer
 
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opexlong

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More money-losing companies than ever are going public, even compared with the dot-com bubble
Most companies going public this year entered their debut with a history of losing money. But investors are embracing them anyway.

Through last Friday, 83 percent of U.S. companies going public the first nine months of this year lost money in the 12 months leading up to the IPO, according to data compiled by University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter. Ritter, whose data goes back to 1980, said this is the highest proportion on record.

The previous highest rate of money-losing companies going public had been 81 percent in 2000, at the height of the dot-com bubble.
 

opexlong

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No doubt at all that over the past couple of months and especially the past few weeks ordinary people who have money in different funds here in Ireland, eg, cautiously managed, active managed, absolute returns, (not naming companies)etc, etc, have seen a big drop in returns and for the not so experienced investor this can be really worrying. Can the more experienced people on here give advice or encouragement to people like that? As joe sod has said I too heard Peter Brown this morning and wonder am I correct in thinking there may be an improvement in European investment markets and consequently returns may improve somewhat? I know there's lots of different scenarios, etc, but it would be good to get general opinions from the more experienced investors
I'm up +25% these last few months thanks to the big market drops but I don't recommend an inexperienced investor try to "time" or short anything. I'm taking calculated risks which aren't appropriate for everyone.

Money managers should have hedges in place or be spread out among non-correlated assets to limit the pain. The latter is difficult in a global economy and many people are delusional about what is and isn't correlated. In the prelude to a recession, most stock indices, industries/sectors and industrial commodities are going to plunge in unison. The Shanghai Index and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index started falling in January, which is also when the NYSE composite peaked. US indices went sideways from January to September. Then US indices, the FTSE, the CAC 40 and the Nikkei started falling from October onwards. Other Euro indices fell within this period (Borsa Italiana in May, Dax in July etc.)

Oil collapsed. Corporate high-yield bonds have started to turn (myriad zombie corporations going belly-up, more to come.) Housing slowing down. Subprime auto-loans defaulting at highest rate in two decades.

I tend to agree with the poster from Galway who thinks Euro markets will fall further in response to big US market sell-offs. Maybe they won't, but in 2008-9 emerging markets, US and Euro markets fell in unison. The strategy of pivoting from one to another didn't work then.

I don't give investment advice but I'm long various commodities stocks, when I can get good ones at dirt-cheap prices. They will go up if and when the underlying commodity becomes scarce and expensive hence they're de-linked from the general run of stocks.
 
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galway_blow_in

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I'm up +25% these last few months thanks to the big market drops but I don't recommend an inexperienced investor try to "time" or short anything. I'm taking calculated risks which aren't appropriate for everyone.

Money managers should have hedges in place or be spread out among non-correlated assets to limit the pain. The latter is difficult in a global economy and many people are delusional about what is and isn't correlated. In the prelude to a recession, most stock indices, industries/sectors and industrial commodities are going to plunge in unison. The Shanghai Index and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index started falling in January, which is also when the NYSE composite peaked. US indices went sideways from January to September. Then US indices, the FTSE, the CAC 40 and the Nikkei started falling from October onwards. Other Euro indices fell within this period (Borsa Italiana in May, Dax in July etc.)

Oil collapsed. Corporate high-yield bonds have started to turn (myriad zombie corporations going belly-up, more to come.) Housing slowing down. Subprime auto-loans defaulting at highest rate in two decades.

I tend to agree with the poster from Galway who thinks Euro markets will fall further in response to big US market sell-offs. Maybe they won't, but in 2008-9 emerging markets, US and Euro markets fell in unison. The strategy of pivoting from one to another didn't work then.

I don't give investment advice but I'm long various commodities stocks, when I can get good ones at dirt-cheap prices. They will go up if and when the underlying commodity becomes scarce and expensive hence they're de-linked from the general run of stocks.

Doesn't surprise me that auto loans are problematic.

Average PE on a car company in Europe or the USA right now is under 7 with dividend yields at 6% for many of them, auto sector has almost been as bad as the financial sector in Europe this year.

Shares in the second biggest American auto maker were dearer in the late eighties than today.
 
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joe sod

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I heard Peter Brown talking again this morning, he reiterated the point about us dollar and market being overvalued. He said the US has had its run for the last decade with all the tech stocks etc and its not the place to be over next 5 years, you now need to be looking for value. He even advised not investing in msci world index etfs and funds simply because the have over 50 percent in us markets.
 

galway_blow_in

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I heard Peter Brown talking again this morning, he reiterated the point about us dollar and market being overvalued. He said the US has had its run for the last decade with all the tech stocks etc and its not the place to be over next 5 years, you now need to be looking for value. He even advised not investing in msci world index etfs and funds simply because the have over 50 percent in us markets.
I heard Peter Brown talking again this morning, he reiterated the point about us dollar and market being overvalued. He said the US has had its run for the last decade with all the tech stocks etc and its not the place to be over next 5 years, you now need to be looking for value. He even advised not investing in msci world index etfs and funds simply because the have over 50 percent in us markets.
Did he squeeze in a plug for his investment workshop road show?, his colleague used to constantly ring me up few years back about when they were on in Galway.
 

Ndiddy

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Isn't the fall of US markets, precisely when you should keep investing( if that has been part of your plan all along)? buy low as long as you believe that the US market won't implode and completely disappear, you are buying US shares at a discount.

its a gamble if you just jump in and out of market sectors but if you think the underlying factors of a company/geographical region are there and you have the time horizon, your money in a market downturn has much more buying power.
 

joe sod

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Did he squeeze in a plug for his investment workshop road show?, his colleague used to constantly ring me up few years back about when they were on in Galway.
no, but he is prepared to nail his colours to the mast and be specific whereas most financial advice on mainstream media is wishy washy or just stating the bleedin obvious like "brexit is going to be very bad for the british economy"
 

elacsaplau

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I am not blowing my own trumpet - but back in August, in the first response to the OP, i.e. post 2, I predicted what we have actually seen in markets since then. It's there in black and white. I said it.
 

galway_blow_in

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no, but he is prepared to nail his colours to the mast and be specific whereas most financial advice on mainstream media is wishy washy or just stating the bleedin obvious like "brexit is going to be very bad for the british economy"
Well I would be less impressed by that individual.
 

Gordon Gekko

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I am not blowing my own trumpet - but back in August, in the first response to the OP, i.e. post 2, I predicted what we have actually seen in markets since then. It's there in black and white. I said it.
Wow, I’m amazed. You said that there could be a correction.

I think it will rain on Christmas Day.
 

RedOnion

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I am not blowing my own trumpet - but back in August, in the first response to the OP, i.e. post 2, I predicted what we have actually seen in markets since then. It's there in black and white. I said it.
You are familiar with the expression about even a stopped clock being right twice a day?
 

joe sod

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Sensationalist and alarmist rubbish sells...that’s an unfortunate fact of life
It's hardly sensationalist and alarmists to say that investors are better investing outside the US in the next few years. On another point that gets no attention Irish investors are the most risk adverse people in Europe with most of their wealth apart from housing sitting in bank accounts earning no interest. This is when the ecb has created trillions of new euros in their bond buying program. In this light is it not a bit silly to be holding euros in a bank account when trillions of new euros have been created. It's the ultimate in currency debasement which in the past kings were killed for.
 

galway_blow_in

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It's hardly sensationalist and alarmists to say that investors are better investing outside the US in the next few years. On another point that gets no attention Irish investors are the most risk adverse people in Europe with most of their wealth apart from housing sitting in bank accounts earning no interest. This is when the ecb has created trillions of new euros in their bond buying program. In this light is it not a bit silly to be holding euros in a bank account when trillions of new euros have been created. It's the ultimate in currency debasement which in the past kings were killed for.
European stoxx 600 is below where it was nearly four years ago , savings were a far better return than equities ( u.s excluded )

Stocks have been dreadful in Europe bar the period 2012-2015

Irish people are not at all the exception when it comes to aversion to equity investing the germans are no different and they keep away from property too.

Stock investment for individuals is far bigger in America.
 
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