Key Post - Predicting the date of Irish Nationwide demutualisation

AFAIK, his 70th birthday is this weekend, and he will no longer be a Director of INBS on Monday. I doubt if this will have any significant impact - he will presumably still be Chief Executive, but just without a seat on the board.
 
anyone hazard a guess ,as to whats happening lads ?is this going to happen this year thanks
 
mosii said:
anyone hazard a guess ,as to whats happening lads ?is this going to happen this year thanks
Click to expand...

Hi

I'm purely an outsider looking in, with no insider information etc, but:

I think the chances of INBS being sold this year look quite slim ...

- the price of almost every Bank in the western world, has dropped significantly over the past 6 months, the result of which has to have been, to devalue the potential value of INBS right alongside the rest of them. There is little evidence the price / value of the banks will increase during the course of this year and infact, based upon projected earnings for some of the financial institutions being suggested by some stock brokers etc, there's an arguement to support their value dropping further over the next 12-18 months !

- there has been a significant reduction in the property market, in Ireland & the UK, the result being a fall off in the amount of property based banking likely to be done this year - again, something which would reduce INBS's value (as a result of reducing it's likely profits)

- there is a visable credit crunch in the money markets, making funds more expensive for all financial institutions using those money markets. INBS is amongst the many institutions using these markets to raise funds to help fund it's loan book - so if it's paying more for it's funds, it's not making as much profit, again the net result if a reduction in the likely price of the INBS

- To be considered right alongside the above, is the fact that many potential bidders might now be finding it harder to raise capital to fund both their loan books & funds for a possible acquisition of INBS, so that's probably knocked a few potential bidders out of the bidding process.

- given what we've seen to date, INBS has been very slow to progress this entire matter. Sure, they used the legislation as their main excuse for quite some time, but that matter was dealt with for them quite a while ago now ...

- on a personal level ( & I say this purely as a spectator looking at the situation from the distance, with no more knowledge than anyone else ) ... I really don't think Michael Fingelton wants to let go of his control of the INBS & as a result, has been talking about selling INBS when the time is right to keep members happy, but at the back of it all - really does not want to. One way or another, he's going to have to release his grip on INBS quite soon, as I've read he must resign from his position when he turns 70 Years (next year ?), but no doubt he's got some other idea up his sleeve to ensure he remains in the top office at the INBS.

Just my 2cents worth :)

Regards

G>
 
Hi
I agreed, it is a terrible time to be selling an Irish bank so dependent on a healthy property market. I think the momnet passed last year and may not come around again for a long time. The last thing any bank wants now is more debt on its books, particularly Irish property debt.
The only hope now might be some sort of break up and sale of different parts of the company. This might be a greedy carpet bagger type solution though that may not appeal to board members or staff.

I hope I am wrong

eddie
 
Back in Nov I guessed it would be this month that a meeting on the conversion would be called.

I also referred back then to the financial turmoil going on in the market.

According to the Sunday Independent the sale process has been deferred.

Anyone's guess now but I would advise anyone who has 20k spare to open an account
straight away and avail of the 5.1% gross 1 year fixed rate share account.

This could easily take a further 2 years at this stage as the Nationwide will not sell itself cheaply until markets turn for the better.
 
Deutsche Bank announce it's on the acquisition trail, may not be all so doom and gloom out there!
 
I would be very suprised if Deutshe would ever contemplate bidding for INBS...

Lets be honest here, the board have not covered themselves in glory with this whole process. They delayed in bringing it to the market, and when they did they never stopped talking in the papers about the potential suitors, which obviously scared people away. When they did bring it to the market it looked to me like the process was very unorganised.... i mean why only appoint an advisor (Goldman - the right choice i think by the way) after many months of having the thing for sale? Naivety to think they could do it without one?

I wonder how much the whole sorry process has cost us? It was reported that a lot of work was done by the auditors for the sale, im sure that wasnt cheap?

Of course the board will come out and say "...extraordinary market conditions...blah blah blah no one could have foreseen the turbulence..."... but in delaying for so long and then making a half-baked attempt to i think they have made a ball$ of it.

Best to put the holiday plans on hold!!

B
 
Yes the Sunday Indo did say the sale has been deferred but on the positive side, it was also reported that Nationwide is expected to release excellent results for 2007 and that they have the lowest cost base of all Irish financial institutions. Also its expected that Fingleton will remain on to oversee the sale (whenever it happens)
Ok, they missed the boat last year in terms of achieving a bumper price but markets are cyclical and surely things can only improve!
 
I see where you get your pen name from sunnygirl!!

Its comforting to see Fingers is staying on to oversee the sale.... very comforting considering he made such a good fist of it this time ;).

If i were looking at this i would look more closely at pipeline and expectations for 2008, 2007 first half would have been v. strong due to market at that time. 2008 will be way more of a challenge given property markets in UK and Ire. The cost base is v.low to their credit, but I wouldnt see that as entirely positive (low cost = low investment in staff, infrastructure etc) as it may only increase the costs post-acquisition of a purchaser post-acquisition, which would all be factored into the price paid anyway! Lowest cost base of all Irish banks etc isnt really a comparable statistic anyway in that INBS is not a full-service retail bank and AIB, BOI, PTSB etc could never hope to compete
 
Perhaps the INBS executives are not as enthusiastic about demutualisation as the members. The members directed them to demutualise, the board then wait on the government for a change in legislation, then they wait on "due diligence" (which is going to be repeated later by a buyer anyway), then the names of the buyers start circulating which annoys some of them, and now the markets have tanked and the board can justifiably claim it's not a good time to sell.
 
MugsGame said:
Perhaps the INBS executives are not as enthusiastic about demutualisation as the members. The members directed them to demutualise, the board then wait on the government for a change in legislation, then they wait on "due diligence" (which is going to be repeated later by a buyer anyway), then the names of the buyers start circulating which annoys some of them, and now the markets have tanked and the board can justifiably claim it's not a good time to sell.
Click to expand...

A similar suspicion crossed my mind.
 
hey, i'm the eternal optimist:). By the way I dont consider Fingers remaining as a positive, I should have worded my last posting better.
To be honest if demutualisation had happened prior to November I wouldnt have qualified. Im sure I'm not the only person who the delay has helped!!
 
Advised my brother to open an account which he has done yesterday.

20k on that bond offering 5.1% fixed for 1 year.

It's a share account.

Nothing to lose I told him while getting a decent enough rate.
 
if it does demutualise... what does this mean for money maker account holders? can they still hold on to their account after demutualisation?

mimi
 
Sick of waiting 13 years now moving to AIB tracker rate & knocking 10 years off payment for my apartment. I called & ask for a better rate & was told sorry but the rate is set at the top. I have never dealt with a more unhelpful group ok maybe NTL but cutting losses & close my INBS shop!!! They said not this year but maybe next year :)

Good luck with getting blood from the stone of INBS
 
i wonder will demut.ever take place now ,with a recession and the effects of the credit crunch globally.
 
If I had €20k to invest has anybody got any advice where to put it?
 
If you put it into a shareholder savings account with Irish Nationwide, you may benefit from any future demutaulisation. The rates are good anyway. Don't hold your breath though - people are growing old waiting for that to happen.
 
Has there been any change in the INBS de-mutualisation status/process since these last posts or where do things stand now?
And what effect will the current down-turn in the market have on all of this?
 
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