In europe, the US or both? and for how long would you see them staying that high?
Yet on the first mention, I asked you, what of gold? - which is NOT something that produces a return. Again, *crickets*.
Ah, so gold bugs are bat crap crazy like the crypto set. Got it.Gold has no intrinsic value above & beyond its use as jewelry….the price in excess of this use case is an exercise in trying to determine how many crazy catastrophe people are out there , what their negative or a positive view of the future right now , how much they’re willing to pay to feel safe owning gold. THIS determines the marginal price of gold.
Gold is game of guessing human psychology and stupidity. It is a pointless game to determine the value of gold….. it’s pointlessness only exceeded by the pointlessness of trying to figure out the value of bitcoin.
You spent a couple of posts discrediting Mark Yusko. Yet when I put it to you that his Twitter post (stating that equities have only been 7% more expensive in the history of markets) was accurate, all that came back was *crickets*.
Ah, so gold bugs are bat crap crazy like the crypto set. Got it.
So let me get this straight. Yusko's chart is actually accurate? The point that was being made at the time of me posting it was to demonstrate that it's in no way just Bitcoin that's in a bubble. Everything is. I'm not part of any Yusko fan club. I'm pretty sure that he skates onto CNBC to sell product to retail (the same as practically anything or anyone that features on CNBC). Long story short, I don't think it was reasonable to spend the time on sledging him - when it was the chart that was (and still several posts later) and is relevant.SPY is an index…..the index is expensive….but it’s market of stocks, not a stock market….lots of good companies selling for reasonable prices (always)….the nifty 500 has been bid up…it will come down ~3,000 on SPY…20-25% to fall from here…no biggie SPY is underpinned by earnings…….eventually the earnings support the price & earnings grow over time…people who paid SPY4500 will be made whole again in time….…Bitcoin well, apart from voodoo charts and Mark Yusko & Raoul Paul et al, what’s gonna stop it falling? …..I’d imagine owning bitcoin feels like when your out in the ocean and you go to touch the bottom with your feet and there’s nothing there, it must be hard feeling not having any idea what something is actually ‘worth’….……with companies with intrinsic value you can always feel the bottom
The gold jewelry use case is an extension of store of value. There are any number of examples of jewelry that's equally as ornate, etc. - but the attraction is the store of value. That leaves a sliver of industrial use case (that is very much recent in the overall history of gold).no no no don’t lump the gold people in with crypto people, that’s not fair on them….like I said gold has base use case as jewelry going for it…..it then also a history that stretches back millennia for being coveted for its color and beauty…..that history is ‘worth’ something
Gold people are a little crazy….but crazy like your lovable Auntie
Crypto people are bat crap crazy
It disregards a monetary system that's broken.
You can't even get beyond three words in a sentence and you're into inaccurate labelling.you crypto dystopians
And you can't help yourself but to come out with lies. I'm on record here as stating that all of what has gone before is part of the evolution and progression of money and monetary and economic systems.seem to forget that the last 100 years (under Fiat currency's, the Gold standard & Bretton woods) has seen greatest aggregate growth in human prosperity, technology, health & living standards/mortality ever recorded in literally millennia of human history.
Well let's turn that right around on you. Many times I've referred to the shortcomings of digital assets. Provide a link to ONE post where you identified something that needed to be improved upon with the current system. Just one.Broken LOL.....I'd love you to show me something you consider fixed!
Once again with the personal commentary and the lies. I'm on record as stating here on a number of occasions that what has gone before is part of the evolution of monetary systems - as what's emerging right now in terms of digital assets will be also. But it seems that one mention of anything critical and the 'doom mongering' tar and feathering begins. There are many well regarded folks in finance - with nothing at all to do with crypto - who recognise deficiencies in the current monetary system. I'll cite Ray Dalio as one - but there are many others. Is Ray Dalio a doom monger?Doom mongering as you are about all that is wrong with 'the system' instead of whats right.
A wonderful advancement to the discussion - thank you.Get a grip of yourself.
Who here talked about perfect, first off? You're making assumptions based on your own bias. I've never talked in terms of any system past/present/future - as being perfect.Perfect is the enemy of good and we have it pretty good.
More lies. In 5 years of discussion here, I've never referred to 'throwing out' anything. I've also never referred to digital assets/crypto/BTC as being 'perfect' - far from it. They do provide optionality - and anyone with an open mind would recognise that whilst still being critical of that optionality if they so choose..throwing out the good in the pursuit of the perfect is dangerous game as you can end up with neither.
You have no idea what you're saying or who you're saying it to - apart from the fact that the statement doesn't advance the discussion in any way, shape or form.You dont know you have it so good, cause you've never really seen it bad.
lol. Still no recognition. Are you capable of uttering the words "I was wrong"? I know that you ran away for 6 months to avoid that. If it wasn't for the invective in your penultimate post, I'd have let it be.We are long way from $60k, even further from $69k.....the feeling your feeling @tecate and your lashing out now.....is the knowledge that there is nothing sitting underneath BTC's quoted price to hold it up just brain farts and dreams......your drifting far from shore and for the first time in a couple of years you've put your feet down to feel the bottom to see if your safe..........and there's nothing there.
It's a scary feeling....and its why these types of bubble/mania assets break down so badly once greed turns to fear.
Disagree. It's only the same if you have used Euros to buy the USD and then pay for something in Euros.Isn't it the same thing? If I have a USD balance on my debit card, and I pay for something in Europe - its converted. The shop doesn't receive dollars. There are at least 7 different crypto companies offering this service - probably more.
No it's not the same thing. The USD customer spending in Europe has no choice but to accept the transaction costs. I suggest there is no situation where paying by way of bitcoin exchange to fiat is the more cost efficient option. Retail outlets and the likes of Mastercard are simply pandering to a cult which sees buying things with crypto as the equivalent of blessing yourself.Isn't it the same thing? If I have a USD balance on my debit card, and I pay for something in Europe - its converted. The shop doesn't receive dollars. There are at least 7 different crypto companies offering this service - probably more.
If its commonplace for a visa/mastercard holder to routinely pay with currency X loaded on card with the transaction in currency Y at POS, then why wouldn't Bitcoin fit into precisely that? It's a global currency that doesn't have any borders. Would you go out and buy the currency for that purpose? In the vast majority of circumstances, no. However, if you had the currency on hand for whatever reason, then it makes perfect sense.No it's not the same thing. The USD customer spending in Europe has no choice but to accept the transaction costs. I suggest there is no situation where paying by way of bitcoin exchange to fiat is the more cost efficient option. Retail outlets and the likes of Mastercard are simply pandering to a cult which sees buying things with crypto is the equivalent of blessing yourself.
My dear @tecate I know you will take offence at what I am going to say, but to heck. From your impassioned posts in these parts I have formed the distinct impression that you see bitcoin in particular as an ideological project that you passionately believe in (I know you find the term cult particularly offensive). I am therefore convinced that you transact in bitcoin not because that is the most convenient way for you to transact but in pursuit of your ideological goals. That and maybe just bragging rights are the only reason for 99% of those who transact in bitcoin to do so. I note that the much touted repatriation utility for El Salvadorians has turned out to be a grand delusion of the cult.If its commonplace for a visa/mastercard holder to routinely pay with currency X loaded on card with the transaction in currency Y at POS, then why wouldn't Bitcoin fit into precisely that? It's a global currency that doesn't have any borders. Would you go out and buy the currency for that purpose? In the vast majority of circumstances, no. However, if you had the currency on hand for whatever reason, then it makes perfect sense.
You can't make a distinction between dealing with any fx charge from USD to EUR as opposed to BTC to EUR. You also can't deny that such products make it entirely practical for :
- Employers to decide to pay staff in BTC.
- Employees to decide that they're happy with accepting payment in BTC.
I doubt this is pandering. I believe this to be two payments companies with a beady eye on the future, making sure that any erosion of there business is minimised.
I have formed the distinct impression that you see bitcoin in particular as an ideological project that you passionately believe in (I know you find the term cults particularly offensive).
I am therefore convinced that you transact in bitcoin not because that is the most convenient way for you to transact but in pursuit of your ideological goals.
lol. That's complete and utter nonsense. It's done just fine. I've told you before that the measure of success isn't having EVERYONE in the country using it. It's in having the optionality there. Are there circumstances where it can be used more? Sure there are. It's very much misunderstood - but that's completely fine. Time and a bit of attention to education will take care of that.I note that the must touted repatriation utility for El Salvadorians has turned out to be a grand illusion of the cult.
Firstly, you have linked to an 88 page report from the IMF. My first thought is that this will have an even handed take on whatever it states ref. BTC/digital assets(NOT). But there's no need to consider that because in the entire document, there's no mention of anything to do with Bitcoin or any other digital asset. There isn't even a mention of the word "asset" let alone "long duration assets".https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Ball-et-al-Conference-Draft-BPEA-FA22.pdf
Short version for those who dont like research papers - nonsense assets are going to be crushed...........only assets/businesses underpinned by strong FCF & clean balance sheets will do well, maybe even these might drop a lot for a little while but come back..........long duration assets....of which BTC is the longest I know.....have a already been taken out and shot.....but now their corpse is going to get dismembered and fed to the pigs.
because in the entire document, there's no mention of anything to do with Bitcoin or any other digital asset.
Ok, so you're making the same point as you made a few posts back? i.e. you believe high rates environment continues over the longer haul. Higher rates environment not good for 'long duration assets'. And you'll go on from there to suggest that other 'long duration assets' will come back and Bitcoin won't.Doesn't need to be, if you actually understand the way things ACTUALLY work and can make the connections with the correct mental model......you'd understand the implications for bitcoin......and other long duration assets.
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