Both…..…..& forever…..2010’s will be a blip in terms of long term interest rates…everything points towards interest rates reverting to their long run averages….given the inflationary mega trends (demographics, deglobalization, friend shoring, climate action) & likely demands for capital moving forward in the next decades will be large….as I’ve said you’ll see savings accounts pay real interest rates again sooner than you think
"If crypto is not the answer to our money problems, what is?" Good FT article
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Both…..…..& forever…..2010’s will be a blip in terms of long term interest rates…everything points towards interest rates reverting to their long run averages….given the inflationary mega trends (demographics, deglobalization, friend shoring, climate action) & likely demands for capital moving forward in the next decades will be large….as I’ve said you’ll see savings accounts pay real interest rates again sooner than you think
Gold has no intrinsic value above & beyond its use as jewelry….the price in excess of this use case is an exercise in trying to determine how many crazy catastrophe people are out there , what their negative or a positive view of the future right now , how much they’re willing to pay to feel safe owning gold. THIS determines the marginal price of gold.
Gold is game of guessing human psychology and stupidity. It is a pointless game to determine the value of gold….. it’s pointlessness only exceeded by the pointlessness of trying to figure out the value of bitcoin.
Ah, so gold bugs are bat crap crazy like the crypto set. Got it.
Last I checked, the gold market had a value of $11 Trillion.
SPY is an index…..the index is expensive….but it’s market of stocks, not a stock market….lots of good companies selling for reasonable prices (always)….the nifty 500 has been bid up…it will come down ~3,000 on SPY…20-25% to fall from here…no biggie SPY is underpinned by earnings…….eventually the earnings support the price & earnings grow over time…people who paid SPY4500 will be made whole again in time….…Bitcoin well, apart from voodoo charts and Mark Yusko & Raoul Paul et al, what’s gonna stop it falling? …..I’d imagine owning bitcoin feels like when your out in the ocean and you go to touch the bottom with your feet and there’s nothing there, it must be hard feeling not having any idea what something is actually ‘worth’….……with companies with intrinsic value you can always feel the bottom
no no no don’t lump the gold people in with crypto people, that’s not fair on them….like I said gold has base use case as jewelry going for it…..it then also a history that stretches back millennia for being coveted for its color and beauty…..that history is ‘worth’ something
Gold people are a little crazy….but crazy like your lovable Auntie
Crypto people are bat crap crazy
So let me get this straight. Yusko's chart is actually accurate? The point that was being made at the time of me posting it was to demonstrate that it's in no way just Bitcoin that's in a bubble. Everything is. I'm not part of any Yusko fan club. I'm pretty sure that he skates onto CNBC to sell product to retail (the same as practically anything or anyone that features on CNBC). Long story short, I don't think it was reasonable to spend the time on sledging him - when it was the chart that was (and still several posts later) and is relevant.
Beyond that, you now agree that equities are over-valued across the board (although you are savvy enough in knowing how to pick them) - in line with the point Yusko was making.
The gold jewelry use case is an extension of store of value. There are any number of examples of jewelry that's equally as ornate, etc. - but the attraction is the store of value. That leaves a sliver of industrial use case (that is very much recent in the overall history of gold).
Bottom line is that most gold does nothing - it's dug out of the ground at huge environmental cost - only to go back under the ground again in vaults - sitting there, gathering dust. And for that, it has a market cap of $11 trillion today.
Placing gold and bitcoin side by side, Bitcoin has a whole range of advantages over it - in terms of utility that you refuse to recognise (not going to go back into it in detail as it's been thrashed out to death).
You're saying that conventional asset classes will nosedive and then bounce back but Bitcoin won't. Your claim that we simply resume in having a higher rate environment indefinitely doesn't stand up to scrutiny. It disregards a monetary system that's broken. Lots of moving parts but debt levels up the wazoo is part of that. Yesterday, the Chinese agreed to pay Russia rubles and yuan for gas.
There will be more stimulus. It's inevitable.
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Its working pretty well @tecate ....you crypto dystopians seem to forget that the last 100 years (under Fiat currency's, the Gold standard & Bretton woods) has seen greatest aggregate growth in human prosperity, technology, health & living standards/mortality ever recorded in literally millennia of human history. Broken LOL.....I'd love you to show me something you consider fixed?
Doom mongering as you are about all that is wrong with 'the system' instead of whats right.....is the equivalent of moaning about that way David held his sling while he defeated Goliath. Get a grip of yourself......things are better than they've ever been EVER, and you cant see it - as you sit dreaming about the demise of 'the monetary system' from behind a keyboard. Perfect is the enemy of good and we have it pretty good.....throwing out the good in the pursuit of the perfect is dangerous game as you can end up with neither.
You dont know you have it so good, cause you've never really seen it bad.
"Monetary System thats broken".....only a fish who doesnt realize he's swimming in water, would say such a thing.
You can't even get beyond three words in a sentence and you're into inaccurate labelling.
And you can't help yourself but to come out with lies. I'm on record here as stating that all of what has gone before is part of the evolution and progression of money and monetary and economic systems.
Well let's turn that right around on you. Many times I've referred to the shortcomings of digital assets. Provide a link to ONE post where you identified something that needed to be improved upon with the current system. Just one.
You won't be able to - because you're in no way open minded to that. You're not open to change and you're invested in 'winning' an argument rather than openly discussing something.
Systems evolve. They can only evolve by identifying shortcomings or areas in need of improvement.
Once again with the personal commentary and the lies. I'm on record as stating here on a number of occasions that what has gone before is part of the evolution of monetary systems - as what's emerging right now in terms of digital assets will be also. But it seems that one mention of anything critical and the 'doom mongering' tar and feathering begins. There are many well regarded folks in finance - with nothing at all to do with crypto - who recognise deficiencies in the current monetary system. I'll cite Ray Dalio as one - but there are many others. Is Ray Dalio a doom monger?
If you can't even be open to a discussion and consideration of deficiencies, how would anything ever improve? But stick your head back in the sand if that's your preference.
A wonderful advancement to the discussion - thank you.
Who here talked about perfect, first off? You're making assumptions based on your own bias. I've never talked in terms of any system past/present/future - as being perfect.
Furthermore, you know what the enemy of evolution and progression is? Shouting down someone at the mention of the potential to improve upon aspects of an existing system. Shouting them down at the notion that there may be deficiencies in the current system (and it's you that needs to "get a grip of yourself" if you really believe that there are not deficiencies in the system we have).
But you're not open to that, right? Isn't that the reason you won't address debt in the context of what you set out re. alleged normalisation of rates going forward?
More lies. In 5 years of discussion here, I've never referred to 'throwing out' anything. I've also never referred to digital assets/crypto/BTC as being 'perfect' - far from it. They do provide optionality - and anyone with an open mind would recognise that whilst still being critical of that optionality if they so choose.
You have no idea what you're saying or who you're saying it to - apart from the fact that the statement doesn't advance the discussion in any way, shape or form.
But why should we be surprised that you're not open to Bitcoin continuing to progress. From your posts it's clear that you are not open to considering the possibility of its ongoing development. I would suggest that someone challenging themselves and their own beliefs would go out of their way to be open to that (even if giving it a minor chance of success) - but what would I know.
This already played out once before. You screamed bloody, blue murder - Bitcoin would never see $60k again - you wouldn't hear of it. You were proven wrong within months. Aligned with jumping on me at the very mention of chinks in the current system, you never acknowledged that your belief back then was wrong. Instead, you left the forum for 6 months straight - acknowledging nothing. Ordinarily, I'd like to take the moral high ground (and I have up until this post) but your indulgences here cross the line.
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We are long way from $60k, even further from $69k.....the feeling your feeling @tecate and your lashing out now.....is the knowledge that there is nothing sitting underneath BTC's quoted price to hold it up just brain farts and dreams......your drifting far from shore and for the first time in a couple of years you've put your feet down to feel the bottom to see if your safe..........and there's nothing there.
It's a scary feeling....and its why these types of bubble/mania assets break down so badly once greed turns to fear.
It's a scary feeling....and its why these types of bubble/mania assets break down so badly once greed turns to fear.
lol. Still no recognition. Are you capable of uttering the words "I was wrong"? I know that you ran away for 6 months to avoid that. If it wasn't for the invective in your penultimate post, I'd have let it be.
So lets get this straight. You took a position on something and swore blind that it could never be any other way. You were wrong. Now you've entered into another wager swearing blind it can never be any other way. That doesn't add up for me. How can you blindside yourself by taking an absolute view when life has shown you that it's in no way wise to do so or to believe so?
You'll recall when we set that initial wager, I told you that Bitcoin was going to crash, right - but that it wasn't done yet? So given that was the guts of 12 months ago, I was aware of this eventuality, what makes you think I'm not in a position to deal with it? Since the first criticism of Bitcoin was ever made, it's dealt with the intrinsic value argument. You're entitled to hold that belief (i.e. that it stands on nothing - and will fall on that basis). However, I think a lot of perspective has been lost. Zoom out. It's incredibly recent in my memory the jibes here about BTC never seeing $20k again.
I also recall posting up significant developments ref. the build out of digital assets infrastructure during the last crypto winter in 2018/9. I don't do that anymore because on any given day, you couldn't even keep track of the developments that are ongoing. The point is that right through this 5 year discussion, the space has been expanding in every conceivable way. The price dip with this downturn is wild and by all accounts it's still a long way from bottoming. And yet, crypto projects are far, far better financed this time round than back in 2018. The build out continues - regardless of the price action.
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Disagree. It's only the same if you have used Euros to buy the USD and then pay for something in Euros.
Duke of Marmalade
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No it's not the same thing. The USD customer spending in Europe has no choice but to accept the transaction costs. I suggest there is no situation where paying by way of bitcoin exchange to fiat is the more cost efficient option. Retail outlets and the likes of Mastercard are simply pandering to a cult which sees buying things with crypto as the equivalent of blessing yourself.
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If its commonplace for a visa/mastercard holder to routinely pay with currency X loaded on card with the transaction in currency Y at POS, then why wouldn't Bitcoin fit into precisely that? It's a global currency that doesn't have any borders. Would you go out and buy the currency for that purpose? In the vast majority of circumstances, no. However, if you had the currency on hand for whatever reason, then it makes perfect sense.
You can't make a distinction between dealing with any fx charge from USD to EUR as opposed to BTC to EUR. You also can't deny that such products make it entirely practical for :
- Employers to decide to pay staff in BTC.
- Employees to decide that they're happy with accepting payment in BTC.
I doubt this is pandering. I believe this to be two payments companies with a beady eye on the future, making sure that any erosion of there business is minimised.
Duke of Marmalade
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My dear @tecate I know you will take offence at what I am going to say, but to heck. From your impassioned posts in these parts I have formed the distinct impression that you see bitcoin in particular as an ideological project that you passionately believe in (I know you find the term cult particularly offensive). I am therefore convinced that you transact in bitcoin not because that is the most convenient way for you to transact but in pursuit of your ideological goals. That and maybe just bragging rights are the only reason for 99% of those who transact in bitcoin to do so. I note that the much touted repatriation utility for El Salvadorians has turned out to be a grand delusion of the cult.
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https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Ball-et-al-Conference-Draft-BPEA-FA22.pdf
Short version for those who dont like research papers - nonsense assets are going to be crushed...........only assets/businesses underpinned by strong FCF & clean balance sheets will do well, maybe even these might drop a lot for a little while but come back..........long duration assets....of which BTC is the longest I know.....have a already been taken out and shot.....but now their corpse is going to get dismembered and fed to the pigs.
Short version for those who dont like research papers - nonsense assets are going to be crushed...........only assets/businesses underpinned by strong FCF & clean balance sheets will do well, maybe even these might drop a lot for a little while but come back..........long duration assets....of which BTC is the longest I know.....have a already been taken out and shot.....but now their corpse is going to get dismembered and fed to the pigs.
My view is as much pragmatic as it is ideological. I find the use of the term 'cult' offensive when to cause offense is the objective or when everyone is being tarred with the one brush. There are a whole host of views out there relative to decentralized digital assets. It's not in any way accurate to stick them all in under one derogatory label.
By your own admission, you are opposed to the development so hardly a coincidence that you form this opinion. Secondly, I'm pretty sure that I've explained this to you already but I'll do so again. I'm currently contracted to a company that don't have any other form of payment except crypto. The option was to work for them and receive payment in BTC or not to take on the work at all. Is this niche right now?
Of course it is - but it doesn't fit into your explanation above. I've contracted to other crypto firms who have paid me in USD. I'm pretty sure that as it becomes increasingly easier to offer crypto, these companies will do so. There are a whole host of hurdles relative to the tax system, accountancy norms, etc. that make it awkward right now for such companies to offer the option. To the point I made earlier, the likes of Visa and Mastercard make one significant aspect of that much easier.
Here's one I didn't mention. You said that it would make no sense for someone to go out of their way to pay the fx fee via visa/mastercard. I said that if someone was already prepared to fund in one currency and pay in another, then why should btc be any different in this respect. To your point in terms of saving on fx fees though, we know that bitcoin is a truly global currency where everything else isn't. Therefore, if - as this progresses - more and more vendors offer the option to pay in btc directly, then there isn't any fx fee. In an international context, I expect that to happen. What visa/mastercard are doing complements this.
lol. That's complete and utter nonsense. It's done just fine. I've told you before that the measure of success isn't having EVERYONE in the country using it. It's in having the optionality there. Are there circumstances where it can be used more? Sure there are. It's very much misunderstood - but that's completely fine. Time and a bit of attention to education will take care of that.
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Firstly, you have linked to an 88 page report from the IMF. My first thought is that this will have an even handed take on whatever it states ref. BTC/digital assets(NOT). But there's no need to consider that because in the entire document, there's no mention of anything to do with Bitcoin or any other digital asset. There isn't even a mention of the word "asset" let alone "long duration assets".
There is something that the IMF can teach you though - so all is not lost. Have a read of the conclusion and you'll see that unlike you they don't talk about absolutes. They plainly point out they have no notion if they're right or wrong on their take re. inflation.
Doesn't need to be, if you actually understand the way things ACTUALLY work and can make the connections with the correct mental model......you'd understand the implications for bitcoin......and other long duration assets.
Ok, so you're making the same point as you made a few posts back? i.e. you believe high rates environment continues over the longer haul. Higher rates environment not good for 'long duration assets'. And you'll go on from there to suggest that other 'long duration assets' will come back and Bitcoin won't.
It remains to be seen if they'll be able to stick with the high rates and stay away from stimulus from medium term onwards. And as regards the distinction you will make between long duration assets and the suggestion that Bitcoin offers nothing comparatively, we'll simply disagree.
I get that some people don't like crypto, don't understand crypto and don't see any value in it. It's an emerging technology, that has gained a cult like following so there is a lot of nonsense around it. However, while the price crashes - development in the area continues. The difference in the technology from the first bull run to the most recent bull run is vast and there has been a lot of progress made. Ethereum yesterday moved to Proof-of-Stake, which makes it 99% more energy efficient and increases the number of transactions it can process. This was years in development.
Every time the price crashes the people that don't like crypto come out and say it's done, it's useless and this is the end. Bitcoin's value may be way down from it's peak but it's still worth the same as the previous peak! The "bottom" value of crypto has only been increasing. Hopefully in time the a lot of the crap coins and projects will fail and drop out with only the good ones remaining - like any emerging technology.
Every time the price crashes the people that don't like crypto come out and say it's done, it's useless and this is the end. Bitcoin's value may be way down from it's peak but it's still worth the same as the previous peak! The "bottom" value of crypto has only been increasing. Hopefully in time the a lot of the crap coins and projects will fail and drop out with only the good ones remaining - like any emerging technology.