"If crypto is not the answer to our money problems, what is?" Good FT article

Brendan Burgess

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The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) — the club of central banks — has been prominent in the effort to address this question. The latest result is part of its annual report, which analyses the emerging ecosystem of cryptocurrencies, stablecoins and exchanges.

This brave new system is — it concludes — inherently flawed. The crypto crash (and preceding bubble) shows that cryptocurrencies are objects of speculation rather than stores of value. That also makes them unusable as units of account. As the BIS notes: “The prevalence of stablecoins, which attempt to peg their value to the US dollar or other conventional currencies, indicates the pervasive need in the crypto sector to piggyback on the credibility provided by the unit of account issued by the central bank. In this sense, stablecoins are the manifestation of crypto’s search for a nominal anchor.”
...
(The current monetary system) falls short, especially on cross-border payments. The BIS envisages in its place a system in which central banks would continue to provide payment “finality” on their balance sheets. But new branches could grow on the central bank’s trunk. Above all, central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could permit a revolutionary restructuring of monetary systems.
 
This brave new system is — it concludes — inherently flawed. The crypto crash (and preceding bubble) shows that cryptocurrencies are objects of speculation rather than stores of value.

This legacy system is — I conclude — inherently flawed. Turkey's inflation being at 80% and the Lebanese banking/currency crisis system are just two recent examples showing that centralised authorities cannot guarantee robustness, or value, of a fiat currency system.

Seriously though, I can't access the article, but is cross border payments the biggest shortfall they identified?


 
I'm not at all surprised that BIS would highlight the shortcoming of an emerging competitive financial ecosystem - it's in their direct centralised interest to demote decentralised finance. They are diametrically opposed systems.

That is not to say they are wrong, there certainly are problems with this new ecosystem that is trying to grow up & serve many purposes, financial among them. There will be pretenders of course & they will fail or be exposed & people will be scalded along the way. That's the case with most new technology until the deadwood is trimmed/ falls away & the real value providers rise to the top & reach a steady state of operations & sustainable growth.

Further, Crypto is in it's regulatory infancy which doesn't help matters. I'm quite sure the traditional financial houses/markets have had their wild west days before regulations were written & refined. Some might say the traditional financial houses still operate like the wild west despite the presence of mature regulation.

I believe this is a copy of the original FT article: https://paperwriter.ca/cryptocurrencies-are-not-the-new-monetary-system-we-need
 
That is not to say they are wrong, there certainly are problems with this new ecosystem that is trying to grow up & serve many purposes,
The BIS paper highlighted to me the inherent flaw that the greater the transaction activity on a crypto network, the greater the unit cost of validating each transaction, see chart on the left.

chap3-gra2.jpg


This is a kind of negative scalability. It's the opposite of what you have in other systems where spreading more transactions across a largely fixed cost base reduces unit costs.


I'm not sure that this issue is resolvable.
 
I'm not sure that this issue is resolvable.
In the case of Bitcoin, it has already been resolved. Wolf is behind the curve in his comments on scalability. This has historically been a problem for cryptocurrencies but it is being dealt with through layer 2 solutions.

In case there's any question on this, install muun wallet - and you'll see that it's possible to transact money at fractions that are not economic via visa/mastercard. This ability to pay in micro-amounts is leading to new use cases. A system of streaming payments is being used by podcasters - so that listeners can choose to pay a fraction of a cent per minute, etc.
 
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The BIS paper highlighted to me the inherent flaw that the greater the transaction activity on a crypto network, the greater the unit cost of validating each transaction, see chart on the left.

chap3-gra2.jpg


This is a kind of negative scalability. It's the opposite of what you have in other systems where spreading more transactions across a largely fixed cost base reduces unit costs.


I'm not sure that this issue is resolvable.

Referring to the chart on the left: that is Ethereum specific data it seems & yes Ethereum has it's fair share of problems with "Gas fees" being incredibly high for even low value transactions - this is quite a specific ethereum problem & should not necessarily be applied as consistent across other crypto technologies.

It may turn out to be the case that Ethereum as a leading edge technology has bumped up against a constraint that they may or may not be able to remediate. In any case someone somewhere will, or perhaps has already resolved this issue & will bubble to the top & displace those players that have not / cannot overcome the "gas fees" issue.

The Cardano network as I understand it are making quite a good fist of sustainable scalability & interoperability using proof of stake validation as opposed to proof of work validation.
 
Referring to the chart on the left: that is Ethereum specific data it seems & yes Ethereum has it's fair share of problems with "Gas fees" being incredibly high for even low value transactions - this is quite a specific ethereum problem & should not necessarily be applied as consistent across other crypto technologies.

It may turn out to be the case that Ethereum as a leading edge technology has bumped up against a constraint that they may or may not be able to remediate. In any case someone somewhere will, or perhaps has already resolved this issue & will bubble to the top & displace those players that have not / cannot overcome the "gas fees" issue.

The Cardano network as I understand it are making quite a good fist of sustainable scalability & interoperability using proof of stake validation as opposed to proof of work validation.
I make a dozen transactions on Cosmos daily, fees are less than a cent and finality seems to take about a second. Theres a reason Dydx left eth
 
@tecate @Horatio

I hate physical retail. I made my first online purchase in 2001 and try to transact online as much as I can.

But in my daily life I do not see any payments problem for which crypto is a solution.
I tend to agree, online retail payments work really well these days for those of us living in modern society with level 3 & level 4 income levels.

There is however a bunch of folks around the world that don't have access to modern well run socieies, are not able to get a bank account or transact online, communicate online because they don't have internet or don't have access to a retail bank's services or in some cases don't even have a form of identification that would allow them to interact with financial or government or educational institutions.

They're isolated by virtue of their fringe status individually or as part of a fringe society - some Crypto, I'm thinking Cardano specifically & it's founder Charles Hoskinson has aspirations to address this very problem.

He's worth looking up & viewing his you tube videos to see his aspirations for the Cardano network - "To bank the unbanked"
 
I make a dozen transactions on Cosmos daily, fees are less than a cent and finality seems to take about a second. Theres a reason Dydx left eth
Sorry, I can't really comment other than to observe you're satisfied with transaction speeds you're getting, right?
Are those ETH transactions specifically? I'm not familiar with those platforms
 
There is however a bunch of folks around the world that don't have access to modern well run socieies, are not able to get a bank account or transact online, communicate online because they don't have internet or don't have access to a retail bank's services or in some cases don't even have a form of identification that would allow them to interact with financial or government or educational institutions.
Okay so you live in Tanzania. Your currency is prone to inflation but all of your dealings are in local currency. You don't have a bank account but you do have a smartphone.

Why wouldn't an e-money service via app in local currency not work for you? Customer ID via facial recognition and fingerprint is getting better and better. Additional customer authentication via SMS.

What would a crypto solution give you that an e-money provider wouldn't? Perhaps a saving on transactions fees but massive currency risk.

For crypto to make any sense as a payments solution you need some combination of a really unreliable local currency or to be dealing in illegal goods or services. This will not apply to the vast, vast majority of use cases at a global level.
 
Sorry, I can't really comment other than to observe you're satisfied with transaction speeds you're getting, right?
Are those ETH transactions specifically? I'm not familiar with those platforms
No it's not ethereum.

Transaction speeds are quick and cheap. I reinvest right now as I wouldnt sell anything at these prices personally.

I was using it for day to day expenses like groceries/drinks/cinema/clothes etc.
 
The crypto crash (and preceding bubble) shows that cryptocurrencies are objects of speculation rather than stores of value. That also makes them unusable as units of account.

It shows that they have been subject to hype cycles, yes. It doesn't mean that this will always be the case (or at the very least, not to the same extent). Crypto is far from having reached a point of maturity. In a world where the euro has lost 20% of its international buying power in a short space of time, I don't believe that Bitcoin will have the same level of volatility once mature.


“The prevalence of stablecoins, which attempt to peg their value to the US dollar or other conventional currencies, indicates the pervasive need in the crypto sector to piggyback on the credibility provided by the unit of account issued by the central bank. In this sense, stablecoins are the manifestation of crypto’s search for a nominal anchor.”
Stablecoins have found their own use case in their own right. They certainly complement fully fledged crypto - and help create a world in which there is no need to off-ramp from the tokenised world at all. It's certainly useful to have them in the interim as cryptocurrencies move on to maturity.

There are now about 10,000 cryptocurrencies. There could just as well be 1 billion.
Complete nonsense - that has long since been outed. That there are so many projects is good in terms of innovation. This space is experimental - and out of that experimentation real solutions and use cases will emerge. Aside from the other reality which is that of those projects, only a handful pursue a purely 'money' use case/function. We've had this claim pop up here multiple times (including the past week) - In the same way as you can't just copy and paste a Facebook or a Google, you can't copy and paste Bitcoin - not without the challenger being 10x better (because it will have to be 10x better in order to overcome its existing network effect).

In a good monetary system, the greater the number of users, the lower the costs of transactions and so the greater its utility. But as more people use a cryptocurrency, the greater the congestion and the more costly the transactions.
The issue of scalability has already been outed above i.e. it has either been dealt with (for the most part in the case of Bitcoin/Lightning Network) or is in the process of being dealt with on the smart contracting platforms (There are layer 2 scaling solutions for Ethereum, Ethereum itself as a L1 blockchain is in transition with a view to addressing this directly OR there are other blockchains that have solved this issue).

One cannot have all three of security, decentralisation and scalability. In practice, cryptocurrencies sacrifice the last. The crypto system gets around this handicap with “bridges” across blockchains. But these are vulnerable to hacks.

Bridges have been notorious as regards hacks - that's for sure. However, in those cases, we're seeing experimentation to resolve these problems. It's fair enough to draw attention to it - but they should qualify that by acknowledging that as this experimentation goes on, there are likely to be appropriate solutions found. Bridging is relevant to the smart contract chains for the most part. Bitcoin already has a L2 scaling solution that doesn't implicate bridging.

Part of the answer is to insist that crypto meets the standards expected of any significant part of the financial system. Among other things, exchanges must “know their customers”.
Applying regulation that was designed for the legacy system is not in any way appropriate for crypto. Here's a former regulator ( Chris Giancarlo - former CFTC Chairman ) who understands exactly how this should work.

Today’s system falls short, especially on cross-border payments.
No kidding - and there would be no admission of an issue to be solved here if it hadn't been for the emergence of crypto.

The fundamental point is that the crypto universe does not provide a desirable alternative monetary system.
There are all manner of technological solutions required within crypto still - in tandem with education and much more work to be done on the user experience. I think it's far too early to say how it performs over the longer stretch. At the very least, I would be very surprised if it is not a value add - as an additional option and choice for people.
 
Okay so you live in Tanzania. Your currency is prone to inflation but all of your dealings are in local currency. You don't have a bank account but you do have a smartphone.

Why wouldn't an e-money service via app in local currency not work for you? Customer ID via facial recognition and fingerprint is getting better and better. Additional customer authentication via SMS.

What would a crypto solution give you that an e-money provider wouldn't? Perhaps a saving on transactions fees but massive currency risk.

For crypto to make any sense as a payments solution you need some combination of a really unreliable local currency or to be dealing in illegal goods or services. This will not apply to the vast, vast majority of use cases at a global level.
From an exclusive payments perspective i won't argue that point with you there are however other applications beyond payments that can bring the "unbanked" into the fold of financial or government or educational institutions.

Get an indisputable digital ID.
Enroll in an education course with that ID.
Gain an indisputible qualification that is linked verifiably to your digital ID.
Register with local health services, have your familys medical history tracked indisputibly.
Open a bank account / DeFi account with your ID - gain access to non punitive lines of credit.
Improve your's & your family's welfare trough investment in technology or better standard of living- break a cycle of poverty or other suboptimal cross generational cycles of behavior in the pursuit of survival.

Identification in so many low income level countries is such a mess that their systems are doomed to fail - it is a foundational block to progressing.
 
Okay so you live in Tanzania. Your currency is prone to inflation but all of your dealings are in local currency. You don't have a bank account but you do have a smartphone.

Why wouldn't an e-money service via app in local currency not work for you? Customer ID via facial recognition and fingerprint is getting better and better. Additional customer authentication via SMS.
Mpesa has been championed on that basis - and has proven to be reasonably effective. However, as Horatio pointed out, large swaythes of the planet don't have well functioning fiat currencies, governance, banking, etc. Many of these places put barriers in place such as capital controls. If a solution is centralised, then its liable to be upended. Simple as that.
Otherwise, those solutions are local. As we move more and more toward digitisation and working within and without borders, movement of value becomes far more challenging.

What would a crypto solution give you that an e-money provider wouldn't? Perhaps a saving on transactions fees but massive currency risk.
Freedom to transact internationally. I gave the example last week of an eCommerce professional working on a self employed basis here in Latin America. He told me he accepts crypto from customers all around the globe. It's workable. The current system is not. As regards currency risk, these guys are not bothered about the currency risk of bitcoin when they look at the p poor performance of their local currencies - and when they consider how bitcoin performs over the longer term (i.e. not cherry picking timeframes). I've paid $100 for international wire transfers in this region. I've had to hand over hard earned money to a rent seeking intermediary to move USD from the US to a latin country without even the need for fx conversion - and that cost me a weeks worth of pay - over the course of last year.


For crypto to make any sense as a payments solution you need some combination of a really unreliable local currency or to be dealing in illegal goods or services. This will not apply to the vast, vast majority of use cases at a global level.
The illegal notion is not where this is at. The barriers that are put in place by the legacy system is what this is about. And the mistake that Irish people make is that because they've been privileged in living in a relatively stable place with better performing currency (if we can still call the euro losing 20% of its international buying power 'better performing'), that's not the reality for billions around the world.
That doesn't mean to say that there still isn't a use case in first world countries. It's just not the lowest hanging fruit for crypto right now. Imagine if you spend 100 euro with a merchant in Ireland, paying via visa/mastercard. Now imagine that he can pass on the 3-4% in fees if you opt for a direct crypto payment instead?
 
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Get an indisputable digital ID.
The US is complete chaos for ID systems compared to somewhere like Portugal, but still manages to be much richer.

Register with local health services, have your familys medical history tracked indisputibly.
I don't see what the issue is here. For most purposes in most places name and DOB gives a unique match when it comes to a lookup. Who lies about their name and DOB to their doctor? What you are proposing here is some kind of unique digital ID, which is nice but I don't think will change the world.

Open a bank account / DeFi account with your ID - gain access to non punitive lines of credit.
E-money providers using fiat currencies will be able to carry out credit scoring and then branch into lending, much cheaper than incumbent banks can. What does use of crypto provide here?

I'm a mainstream consumer in a western country with a stable currency. I still see zero use cases for a cryptocurrency as a payment solution for me, and no one can give me one.
 
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So your use case for someone in Ireland is that it assists Americans in breaking the law? Hahaha.
He asked for a use case for someone living in the western world.

I provided a use case for an industry that turns over billions and by the way, how is it breaking any laws
 
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