Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Sunrock,
If you wish to contribute to discussions or debates in AAM please formulate full sentences which have correct punctuation. Your post above does not have a singe capital letter, full stop or comma. It does however have several underscores. Such posts are nearly impossible to interpret.
aj

sunrock said:
highlighting an aspect of our demographic profile saying we have a lot of people under 15s__future tax payers
i remember in the 80s__our politicos were saying young people were our greatest asset even as they all emigrated
its just soothing noises and of course our leaders and vi s couldnt care less about young people
now they are also saying we will have more immigrants_very handy for landlords who need rentersbut maybe not so good for low wage irish workers
if immigrants were the solution why not let everyone from africa or india claim asylum here so all our unoccupied houses will be full of renters
the ensuing full occupancy will cause higher house prices and we will perpetuate our boom
simple really
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An apartment in the block I live in has just dropped from €395K to €381K. It's 4 weeks on the market today.

In the 4 and a half years I've lived here, that's the first drop I've seen.

That price will take me back above 50% LTV :( My NIB LTV mortgage pack is in the post. I'd better get that valuation done pdq ;)
 
From today's Indo:


WHEN it comes to investing in residential property, the old line about JP Morgan and the shoeshine boy has been trotted out more than once.
Nevertheless, when RTE's new daytime chat show, Seoige & O'Shea, features a 26-year-old woman who intends to buy four properties a year and retire by the age of 30, it once again emphasises our tenuous grip on reality when it comes to believing that property is a one-way bet.

Did anyone get to watch the young ladys get-rich-quick scheme?
 
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I don't get the demographics factor in relation to Ireland.
Ireland has aged in the last 10 years due to low birth rate and ageing of generation X.
Average age is 35 which is same as Australia,Uk and 15% lower than Germany which has highest demographic profile in EEC.

Again,where is the demand going to come from when we are building houses at 5 times the EEC average with close to 300k vacant properties?
 
How the market has changed since Spring this year.

This piece in the property section of the Independent displays a desperate attempt to find something positive in the market but ends up listing a rake of price drops!

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1716912&issue_id=14839

They mention a house in Rathfarnham that might actually achieve the asking price!!! Lisney's in Terenure are hopeful anyway :)

There's an attempt to spin price drops as an opportunity to pick up a bargain - with a Moore street style "Anyone else now for the last of the cheap houses!" as if there's still a few with reduced prices just waiting to be snapped up by some unfortunate buyer. While the rate of falling prices has actually increased.

However there are still a number of residential properties whose asking prices have been reduced.
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:D
 
A friend of mine who bought an investment property last year was thinking of selling it up till a few weeks ago as he felt that the market may be turning. However yesterday when I spoke to him he had made an about turn and said that he would wait another year before selling at the very least. His two supporting arguments were that it was unlikely the immigrants were going to leave and secondly he had found that the price of some apartments in Ashbourne had gone up in the past few months. He was also hoping for a change in the stamp duty bands so that when he went to sell his apartment would be exempted from the same.

Also I was chatting to my local barber yesterday and he was of the same opinion that the Poles, Latvians etc. would not leave; instead they would start having families in Ireland and buy houses.

One quick question has anyone tracked asking price declines in Ashbourne?
 
whathome said:
How the market has changed since Spring this year.

This piece in the property section of the Independent displays a desperate attempt to find something positive in the market but ends up listing a rake of price drops!

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=303&si=1716912&issue_id=14839

They mention a house in Rathfarnham that might actually achieve the asking price!!! Lisney's in Terenure are hopeful anyway :)

There's an attempt to spin price drops as being an opportunity to pick up a bargain - with a Moore street style "Anyone else now for the last of the cheap houses!" as if there's still a few with reduced prices just waiting to be snapped up by some unfortunate buyer. While the rate of falling prices has actually increased.

:D
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That was a strange article. It mentioned many examples where the asking price has decreased but will still had an air of optimism.

But was interesting to note that the fact that prices are decreasing (asking prices anyhow) is now in the public domain.
 
Heard Jim Power(Friends First) on Morning Ireland this morning, he was saying that interest rates would reach at least 4% during next year.
 

ECB confirms rates will rise next month
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=185&si=1716859&issue_id=14839

THE European Central Bank confirmed yesterday that interest rates will rise next month, and left the door open for more increases next year.
One leading analyst is now forecasting a peak of 4.25pc for rates in 2008, as the eurozone economy continues to perform strongly.
As expected, the ECB left rates unchanged at 3.25pc at its meeting yesterday.
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Heard mention of this on the late TV3 news last night accomponied by a bit of VI spin on how much house prices have gone up this year. Average is over €500k in Dublin now. Not sure where they got their figures from...
 

3bn stamp duty haul puts Cowen on the spot
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1717031&issue_id=14839
[FONT=Verdana, Arial]Opposition to push for Budget action as house tax surges 36pc

CONTROVERSIAL stamp duties have now raised more than €3bn this year, new figures show.
That puts Finance Minister Brian Cowen on course for a bumper Budget next month - without any need to borrow.
But it will also heighten pressure on the Government to do something about the escalating burden the stamp duty imposes on house buyers - especially as interest rates fuel higher repayments.
Tanaiste and PD leader Michael McDowell sparked controversy when he said the Government did not need all the stamp duty revenue.
With €3bn already in the coffers from the tax, it is certain to be one of the central issues leading up to next month's Budget.
However, Mr Cowen has already indicated he will do nothing on stamp duty this time round - but the Opposition will seize on these latest figures to step up the pressure for action of some sort.
Mr McDowell's comments have been blamed, in part, for the slowdown in house sales as buyers wait to see what will happen in the Budget.
[/FONT]
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God help us if they screw with Stamp Duty in the budget....
[sorry for the double post]
 
Phoenix_n,
Unless you are Brian Cowen or Bertie Ahern posting incognito then you can never say never.
 
Savvy said:
Phoenix_n,
Unless you are Brian Cowen or Bertie Ahern posting incognito then you can never say never.
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Indeed. But the man has said he will not and any other talk is just speculation by EA's and minor political parties.
 
Gwynston said:
God help us if they screw with Stamp Duty in the budget....
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I think it would be a good thing to abolish stamp duty for FTB's.

Developers wouldn't have the cosy competitive advantage they currently enjoy attracting FTB's. Even if there was some slight short-term upward pressure on prices of second-hand homes, it will be quickly hammered down by rising interest rates. It would also mean that the price of new developments would have to fall in order to keep attracting FTB's.
 
whathome said:
I think it would be a good thing to abolish stamp duty for FTB's.

Developers wouldn't have the cosy competitive advantage they currently enjoy attracting FTB's. Even if there was some slight short-term upward pressure on prices of second-hand homes, it will be quickly hammered down by rising interest rates. It would also mean that the price of new developments would have to fall in order to keep attracting FTB's.
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I would disagree. Stamp duty is not the problem. Its the inflated house prices. Lets say A earns 60K. Will be able to get a mortgage of around 300K. Saved deposit of 30K. Now That should be satisfactory to buy a property without needing extra borrowings from parents or a reliance of a second income from a partner. That means the average price for a starter home should be around the 317 mark.

And dont forget that the above example still implies that A takes out a maximum mortgage rather than a comfortable mortgage.
 
whathome said:
Developers wouldn't have the cosy competitive advantage they currently enjoy attracting FTB's. Even if there was some slight short-term upward pressure on prices of second-hand homes, it will be quickly hammered down by rising interest rates. It would also mean that the price of new developments would have to fall in order to keep attracting FTB's.
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Or, better yet, developers would have to provide tangible benefits to purchasing new build - higher build standard, noise insulation (I think this has to be one of the biggest issues for buyers of new houses / apartments), more energy efficient, environmentally friendly.

The building boom has generally seen the quality of the housing stock fall, and a good deal of that is fuelled by the new market being composed of a large proportion of FTBs who have little choice, and investors who don't have to live in them.
 
phoenix_n said:
I would disagree. Stamp duty is not the problem. Its the inflated house prices. Lets say A earns 60K. Will be able to get a mortgage of around 300K. Saved deposit of 30K. Now That should be satisfactory to buy a property without needing extra borrowings from parents or a reliance of a second income from a partner. That means the average price for a starter home should be around the 317 mark.

And dont forget that the above example still implies that A takes out a maximum mortgage rather than a comfortable mortgage.
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The last time that stamp duty for FTBs was repraised, there was a fairly instantaneous jump in house prices as money which would have gone to the government went to vendors instead.

Secondly, 60K is double the average salary. If you have to be earning double the average salary to get a starter home along with a maxed out mortgage, there is something seriously wrong. However, to admit that would be also to admit that house price inflation over the past three or four years was unrealistic and had no basis in actual added real value.

I'm sick to the teeth of people looking at ways to give people more money to buy houses. It is a cosmetic measure. The truth is that houses are far, far too expensive. Prices need to be addressed, not access to money, cheap/tax/government/rebate/low interest rates wise.
 
Any reduction of stamp duty would be mad. They should increase stamp duty for investors and CGT on the sale of investment/holiday homes.
 
I finally managed to read the whole thread:eek:
A few hours here and here and it took me three weeks

So here’s my first post
I have to disagree with some posters calling for punitive taxes on people who hold onto landbanks.
My father struggled for years to make a living on our farm in Tipperary but suddenly he’s a paper millionaire.
It’s the best development site in our area and valued at over €4 million as it’s zoned for residential development.
But it won’t be sold until the M7 to Limerick is built as this can only increase its value to Limerick commuters who wish to commute to Limerick but live in a beautiful area beside Lough Derg. Leave aside thoughts of a crash for now.

So you could say why isn’t the land sold at agricultural prices so purchasers get can cheap and affordable homes.
I’m sure most posters would support calls for the end of land speculation as it could decrease the price of housing to more reasonable levels.

Just remember, that you may curse the property developers who make millions from this building boom but it has also affects farmers on low incomes in a positive way.
I’m hoping for it to stay stable for three more years and then I can collect my inheritance. I accept it can drop and I’ll be reading this thread with interest as it’s very informative.

Like everyone here I was pretty bearish as everyone says the smart money has left the Irish property scene.
This may be true but is everyone here correct and Sean Dunne and Bernard McNamara wrong?
Everyone here has an opinion but you have to respect these two businessman who backup up their beliefs with hundreds of millions.
 
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