Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Countrywide drops below, randomly selected
Santry:
July 510k
NOW 490k [broken link removed]

July 435k
NOW 420k [broken link removed]

Garristown, Co. Dublin
July 895k
NOW 855k [broken link removed]

Castleknock, Dublin
July 570k
NOW 530k [broken link removed]

Kerry:
July 299k
NOW 289k [broken link removed]

July 306k
NOW 299k [broken link removed]

May 750k
NOW 660k [broken link removed] Sale Agreed

Wicklow:
July 310k
NOW 305k Sale agreed [broken link removed]

Westmeath:
July 410k
NOW 399k [broken link removed]

Limerick
July 300k
NOW – 280k [broken link removed]
Sale agreed

Waterford:
July €1.5m
NOW €1.325m [broken link removed]

Mayo:
July 170k
NOW 165k [broken link removed]

July 280k
NOW 250k [broken link removed]

July 190k
NOW 180k [broken link removed]

Kildare
July 800k
NOW 750k [broken link removed]

July 399k
Now 389k [broken link removed]

Cork:
July 430k
Now 390k [broken link removed]

Galway
July 410k
NOW 390k [broken link removed]

Cavan
May 310k
NOW 300k [broken link removed] Sale Agreed

Offaly
May 495k
NOW 480k [broken link removed]
 
undersupply said:
The difference between irish and british sentiment is that the british public are aware that house prices can fall, having been stung in 1988/9, this helped them stave off a crash; this, and the fact that they have control over interest rates.
Britain builds 200,000 units a year for 60 million,which is an undersupply, Ireland builds 90,000 for 4.5 million which is just crazy.
British sentiment is against apartments and in love with conventional houses, the irish are very pro-apartment living.
Sentiment is a very fickle thing, but once it changes, it changes for a long time. Ask anyone who bought dot-com shares what they think of the NASDEQ.
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I would say one of the most important factors which has underpinned the UK housing market in the last while is the rapid growth in UK money supply. According to this link [broken link removed]
the UK M4 money supply is up 14.5 pct yr-on-yr the highest in 16 years. So a lot of 'liquidity' is still sloshing around the UK zone.
 
poormouth said:
I would say one of the most important factors which has underpinned the UK housing market in the last while is the rapid growth in UK money supply. According to this link [broken link removed]
the UK M4 money supply is up 14.5 pct yr-on-yr the highest in 16 years. So a lot of 'liquidity' is still sloshing around the UK zone.
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I would agree, Sterling M4 growth is notably much faster than euro or dollar. BoE may surprise us with a hawkish stance in 2007 (don’t hold breath though)

Another factor, related to me by a good friend who is v senior at UBS London, is the petrodollar effect. There is a seemingly endless appetite for houses in Chelsea etc. by City clients The sort of demand that doesn’t care about downpayments or interest rates, the sort of demand that worries about having too much tied up in US$ bonds.
 
the power of the city and the money that sloshes through it should never be underestimated. the UK press is talking of another record-breaking bonus year with some £8.8bn (yes that is billion) expected to be paid out. 4,200 people are in line for bonuses in excess of £1m according to the CEBR (Center for Economic & Business Research).
 
This thread is for "Current public sentiment towards the housing market?". Please post elsewhere if you want to discuss the state of the UK economy.
 
Trophy houses in posh parts of London are status symbols owned by foreigners who, to lesser mortals, appear to all intents to “not care about the price”. To a saudi oil prince a pad in Mayfair is equivalent to a Maybach in the garage. And he may only ever spend a few nights in the place.

[Note that these people are completely absence in Dublin market]
 
Check out this link to see how the slowing market is being discussed on Irelands most popular website. Doesn't get much bigger than this. Luckily for this vendor there is an auctioneer willing him/her out.... ;)
(check out the reply)

http://www.daft.ie/discussions.daft?dcn[discussion_id]=87300
 
Interesting, Beattie - Jeez, that's a bad scene alright - 4 viewings in 4 months! :(

I'll be awaiting that auctioneer's 'expected pick up in the New Year' with interest ;).....although even if this is possible, with the rising everything (interest rates, fuel costs, childcare, etc.), I think vendors like Joanne will still fail to achieve current prices - people simply won't be able to afford to borrow as much - and that's with 100% maxed-out 40-year jobbies.

Prices aside, it'll be interesting to see how the inventory goes in the New Year, too - it's rising relatively quickly according to the graphs......looks like a growth of about 1000 properties in the last week, nationwide.:eek:
 
Interesting report from Bank of Ireland this morning predicting 95-100k houses built this year(on rte website) which states is five times the European average 26 per 1000

To me this is the most fundamental reason 4 a crash both house wise & economically-this isn't sustainable given that we Ireland already has 275k vacant properties
 
As an aside,I have been tracking the rental/sale market in Dundalk since September(market I know as originally from that area).

On rental side,rents have dropped average $100 pm in last 2 months and there still not renting(easy to track as usually only 40-50 properties to rent in Dundalk on daft)

No corresponding drop in sale prices in Dundalk but same properties appearing now as in september only difference this week inventory has increased by 30%(96 today)

My guess this is been replicated across Ireland.

Rents are definately dropping at least 10% in Dundalk and to be honest are at 98 levels-1 3 bedroom advertised for 600pm with average 750pm.
 
beattie said:
Check out this link to see how the slowing market is being discussed on Irelands most popular website. Doesn't get much bigger than this. Luckily for this vendor there is an auctioneer willing him/her out.... ;)
(check out the reply)

http://www.daft.ie/discussions.daft?dcn[discussion_id]=87300
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The great white elephant of stamp duty being abolished is being touted again. Over the last 10 years how often did we see the market slump for many months due to speculation about a possible tax change - never I'd say.

People like "Joanne" could be in serious trouble. They paid top whack for their upgrade home and now their current property is falling in value. I'd hate to be caught with 2 houses falling at the same time, when the sale of one is supposed to finance the sale of the other.
 
plaudit said:
People like "Joanne" could be in serious trouble. They paid top whack for their upgrade home and now their current property is falling in value. I'd hate to be caught with 2 houses falling at the same time, when the sale of one is supposed to finance the sale of the other.
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This could one of the great changes going forward in the market place - the absolute necessity to sell your own property first before you buy the next one. The ease over the past decade at which houses could be sold without delay has lulled some people. "Joanne" could easily be looking at a very stressful end to the year and beginning to the new one.

Also the very strong likelihood of an interest increase in December and she is also at the mercy of euro inflation figures which in Jan Feb could point to further increases - may get difficult.
 
Did anyone hear the report on Newstalk this morning about the Bank of Ireland report saying prices will have risen 17% by the end of this year? The report was introduced by saying "Prices are still soaring" or something to that effect. Is it just me or have prices already risen roughly 17% this year? and so if theya re still 17% by year end they are just admitting there will be no price increases until then? They were also saying there be a slight decline in the rate of price increases next year, down to 4% to 6%. 17% down to 5% doesn't sound like a slight decline to me!

One other thing, a few stores later they had people on saying "Don't assume house prices in eastern Europe will rise, they do not have the demographics we do". Are the VIs now trying to scare people out of foreign investment while trying to pump up Irish investment?

Before I got the impression the local EAs and foreign investment companies were getting on fine, now they seem to have turned on each other. Has the beast started to eat itself?
 
plaudit said:
The great white elephant of stamp duty being abolished is being touted again. Over the last 10 years how often did we see the market slump for many months due to speculation about a possible tax change - never I'd say.
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So true. The erosion of affordability for FTB's, the exodus of investors, the risk of capital depreciation, rising interest rates has quenched the fire with which the market had made earlier extraordinary gains. Its nothing to do with the stamp duty confusion and we can only expect to see an even greater supply on the market in January with heavy discounting for those that need to offload.
 

"Bank of Ireland has again revised its predictions for house price inflation this year, saying the market is continuing to defy expectations.
In its latest quarterly analysis, the bank says it expects an annual price rise of 14% for 2006, up from 12% in the last review and 9% in the previous one.

However, it also says it expects price rises to slow considerably to just 3% next year, mainly due to higher interest rates.

Bank of Ireland says record numbers of houses are currently being built in Ireland, but prices are continuing to go through the roof due to strong employment growth and unprecedented levels of immigration."

This report comes from Unison. There is no doubt that there is a slow down but over the year its still very impression growth.
 
topman said:
This report comes from Unison. There is no doubt that there is a slow down but over the year its still very impression growth.
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The lack of honesty is breathtaking though. The problem with housing price growth is it is coming with debt growth. And no one really wants to admit it. The point is this: as long as we have "impressive" house price growth, we will have "impressive" debt growth. It is the shadow side of the coin.

The problem I have is that untrammelled housing price inflation is not underpinned by an inherent increase in actual value. We are not earning more money to pay for these things, we are just borrowing more. It's just numbers at that level. For the banks it's good because it brings with it additional interest. For the rest of us, it's shockingly naive.

It's a bit depressing that Irish people in general have such sadly lacking analytical skills that they take headlines of this nature at face value.
 
topman said:

"Bank of Ireland has again revised its predictions for house price inflation this year, saying the market is continuing to defy expectations.
In its latest quarterly analysis, the bank says it expects an annual price rise of 14% for 2006, up from 12% in the last review and 9% in the previous one.

However, it also says it expects price rises to slow considerably to just 3% next year, mainly due to higher interest rates.

Bank of Ireland says record numbers of houses are currently being built in Ireland, but prices are continuing to go through the roof due to strong employment growth and unprecedented levels of immigration."

This report comes from Unison. There is no doubt that there is a slow down but over the year its still very impression growth.
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Yeh but how much had house prices increased by the end of May this year??? Im sure it was well over 10% at least if not more. Id say there has been very little growth since then. This was mentioned before on this thread that when things started slowing all you would hear would be the overall yearly figure. When things were booming, every month you would hear how much prices have gone up for the month! I dont think anyone can argue that house porices have stalled over the last 4/5 months.
 
Calina said:
The lack of honesty is breathtaking though. The problem with housing price growth is it is coming with debt growth. And no one really wants to admit it. The point is this: as long as we have "impressive" house price growth, we will have "impressive" debt growth. It is the shadow side of the coin.

The problem I have is that untrammelled housing price inflation is not underpinned by an inherent increase in actual value. We are not earning more money to pay for these things, we are just borrowing more. It's just numbers at that level. For the banks it's good because it brings with it additional interest. For the rest of us, it's shockingly naive.

It's a bit depressing that Irish people in general have such sadly lacking analytical skills that they take headlines of this nature at face value.
Click to expand...

I agree, we are approaching debt saturation. This phase of our economic growth is based on unsustainable debt growth.
 
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