Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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beattie said:
Yes it seems to me that there is an avalanche of development land/sites coming to market over the past 6 months (area of Ballsbridge for example). Unfortunately for the purchasers of this land it will takes years after planning is secured, building etc before these come to market so when they do it will not be in the crazy times like now. I feel that the boat may have been missed by those who are getting there hands on this land now
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According to daft alone there's 143 rental properties in ballsbridge at the moment,probably the highest concentration in the entire city that's hardly a shortage now.

http://www.daft.ie/searchrental.daft?s%5Bcc_id%5D=ct1&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=180&s%5Bmnp%5D=&s%5Bmxp%5D=&s%5Bbd_no%5D=&s%5Bpt_id%5D=&s%5Bmove_in_date%5D=0&s%5Blease%5D=&s%5Bfurn%5D=0&search=Search+%BB&more=&tab=1&s%5Bsearch_type%5D=area

Very interesting is the fact that there is nearly 200 properties for sale in just celbridge and maynooth area's alone,has the offloading begun ?

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?s%5Bcc_id%5D=ct1&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=199&s%5Ba_id%5D%5B%5D=2818&s%5Bmnb%5D=&s%5Bmxb%5D=&s%5Bmnp%5D=&s%5Bmxp%5D=&s%5Bpt_id%5D=&search=Search+%BB&more=&tab=1&s%5Bsearch_type%5D=area
 
Theres several factors coming toghether now that makes a correction much more likely.
-supply is at or coming close to meeting demand
-the boundaries of affordibility are close to being reached (once mortgage rates hit 5% next year the stress test will have to be done at 7% so amounts bank wll lend will drop),ya cant buy if ya cant borrow
-rates are rising and the markets think they will rise more than previously thought earlier this year
-inflation in irish economy is eating into peoples income after non housing living costs,whats the point in a 4% pay rise if inflation errodes all of it
-consumer confidence in ireland has been down considerably in last 6 months despite the ssia's etc
-large and increasing amount of bearish/negative/anxious sentiment in media about house prices ,debt etc
 
bearishbull said:
-supply is at or coming close to meeting demand
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Considering that we always see the property market 1Q retrospectivly, I would think the supply has easly surpassed demand.

40% (32,000) of all new builds in the first quarter bought by investors. This is extremely dangerous. These people don't need a home, most probably in it for capital appreciation. At the drop of a hat the could simply decide that it is too risky to be in the property market, stampeding like wilderbeast in the opposite direction.
 
bearishbull said:
Theres several factors coming toghether now that makes a correction much more likely.
-supply is at or coming close to meeting demand
-the boundaries of affordibility are close to being reached (once mortgage rates hit 5% next year the stress test will have to be done at 7% so amounts bank wll lend will drop),ya cant buy if ya cant borrow
-rates are rising and the markets think they will rise more than previously thought earlier this year
-inflation in irish economy is eating into peoples income after non housing living costs,whats the point in a 4% pay rise if inflation errodes all of it
-consumer confidence in ireland has been down considerably in last 6 months despite the ssia's etc
-large and increasing amount of bearish/negative/anxious sentiment in media about house prices ,debt etc
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Lets not forget the frail pricing power of Irish Labour in a globalised economy. When the US enters a downturn Chinese overcapacity and hyper cheap labour will seek out any and every opportunity to sustain itself.
 
Duplex said:
Lets not forget the frail pricing power of Irish Labour in a globalised economy. When the US enters a downturn Chinese overcapacity and hyper cheap labour will seek out any and every opportunity to sustain itself.
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im talking short term here,lets not go too far off topic or we'll be locked down very quickly!
 
If anyone doesn't like the moderation on AAM they are free to stick to their own sites.
 
Supply soars:

Bank of Ireland:

In the construction sector, 100,000 units to be completed in 2006 – a considerable upside on our previous forecast for the year of 85,000 completions and the actual 81,000 completions recorded in 2005
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I wish to congratulate WTTW on his predictions so far. I can remember WTTW predicting last december on another thread on AAM that once rates start going up we would have a "Race against Rates". So far this has been bang on as people rush to buy property due to the fact that rising rates reduces what home purchasers can borrow. This I think is exactly what is being witnessed in the Real Estate market today where we have the strongest borrowings recorded since 2000.

The big question is at what interest rate prospective buyers will be priced out at. Then we will have the stand off between homeowners wishing to sell but not drop prices and FTBs being unable to get loan approval despite 35 year terms and all the other schemes that the banks have to allow people borrow way beyond their means.

The next 6 months - 1 year is going to be very interesting indeed.
 
OilKing said:
The next 6 months - 1 year is going to be very interesting indeed.
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May I posit 2Packs DAFT EFFECT

As EAs are swamped with sell orders they will refuse to accept any more IN CERTAIN AREAS . Therefore the sellers who will have been refused by EAs will sell directly through the likes of Daft or Buy and Sell etc .

Keep an eye on whether certain areas fall victim to this Daft Effect as the market tanks and the truly desperate wish to offload quickly . If there are no pics then assume a Magnolia painted ex rental horror awaits the viewer :p
 
soma said:
2Pack - The David "must give everything a funky label" McWilliams of AAM. :)
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Well speaking of 2Packs DAFT effect , thewatcher set me thinking scientifically about it , thanks head .

Maynooth POP c.10000 Daft Properties for Sale 120
Celbridge POP c.15000 Daft Properties for sale 75

Are EAs in Maynooth already saying their books are full and will they refuse to accept more sales commissions until they clear them and are the sellers going to Daft to offload themselves .

Is Maynooth rather than Celbridge an example of 2Packs DAFT Effect ???
 
Re. Maynooth-there are quite a few properties still on DAFT that were sold some time ago, but are still 'renewed' on a daily basis.
 
2Pack said:
Well speaking of 2Packs DAFT effect , thewatcher set me thinking scientifically about it , thanks head .

Maynooth POP c.10000 Daft Properties for Sale 120
Celbridge POP c.15000 Daft Properties for sale 50

Are EAs in Maynooth already saying their books are full and will they refuse to accept more sales commissions until they clear them and are the sellers going to Daft to offload themselves .

Is Maynooth rather than Celbridge an example of 2Packs DAFT Effect ???
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Maynooth will definatly have a higher proportion of investment properties as it is a university town.
 
On myhome.ie there are 123 properties for sale in Lucan. This is highest figure I've seen in a while. I doubt many of them are leftovers from the auction season.
 
144 in Clonsilla/Mulhudard/Clonee. I have almalgamated these as some properties in Mulhudard are said to be in Clonsilla, and also with Clonee
 
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