Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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JohnBoy said:
Since then house price inflation has substantially moderated and the country is getting used to house price gwoth of inflation + 2%/4%.
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UK is not experiencing a 'soft landing' (whatever that is). Actual achieved prices are all over the place, parts of London are holding up but it's mostly down year-on-year, and more telling, inventories are piling up.

The UK property market will wilt in the face of a mere further 0.25% BoE increase, which Mr Brown desparately wants to stall.

UK M3 expanded around 12% in last year, Eurozone about 8%. These are closer to the man-on-the-street price inflation rates. Hence house prices would have to grow at least this much to not fall in value. So the mythical soft landing of +1,2,3,4,5,%... pa. growth (take your pick from the Estate Agent Economists pronoucements) is just that, mythical.

The inescapable fact is property prices are finally unwinding everywhere from a period of exaggerated growth due to real-negative rates .
 
beattie said:
If so this could reach a wider target audience than the warnings given by publications such as The Economist.
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Noted that Cowan is warning the investors to stay out from now on but not the FTB's .
 
My guess is he wants investors to look at alternative investments, possibly state enterprises being privatised, for example. That being said, if investors accounted for 40% or so of new property purchases last year, their absence could still have an impact on average prices.
 
2Pack said:
Noted that Cowan is warning the investors to stay out from now on but not the FTB's .
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Yes interesting that Biffo should single out speculators for his cautionary words, I wonder why?
 
While I agree that property is over-valued, I remember that my parents finally paid off their mortgage in 1987, having started in 1952 - ie they had a 35 year mortgage (I think the interest rate was 3.5%) so long term mortgages are not completely new but had just disappeared from the scheme for a long time - presumably the high inflation/high (nominal) interest rates of the 70s/80s did for them.
 
Duplex said:
Yes interesting that Biffo should single out speculators for his cautionary words, I wonder why?
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Certainly is interesting. I think he is again trying to deflect responsibility for the coming crash from the government. Ask the man on the street why prices have skyrocketed and he will tell you that the speculators snapping up all the houses drove prices beyond realistic levels. When prices fall, Biffo & co. will say prices are returning to a reasonable level (the mythical "soft landing") now that the speculators are getting out.

If I was a FF'er I'd be very worried about how a crash might affect election results next year.
 
room305 said:
If I was a FF'er I'd be very worried about how a crash might affect election results next year.
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They know its gone too far and are almost afraid to intervene. They cannot see how to gently talk it down.

The Kildare by election scared the crap out of them. They realise that commuter belt Ireland is full of young FTBs with young kids forced ever further out of the main towns . The places they go have no schools and no facilities. They were tiny villages or small towns in 1995 , before the tiger.

Furthermore when the 2Pack 2Band theory is proven correct in the Dublin area they will find themsleves hammered in Meath and in Kildare and Carlow and Wexford and Louth and also in the western suburbs of Dublin where there ARE NO SCHOOLS and even on the eastern fringes of Biffos power base in Edenderry.

You simply cannot be in power for 10 years while planning nothing and delivering nothing tangible and useful in all that time.

No roads, no schools, no proper telecommunications bar mobiles , no hospitals , no decent primary healthcare , no trains . Plenty of manana manana manana promises and National Development yokes and National Spatial guff and launches and relaunches and speech after speech but NO concrete in the ground lads . Thats the lot of the outer bander in the Pale and in Cork and Limerick and Galway and elsewhere .

Furthermore as the outer band demand collapses (as it will shortly) those poor FTBs are stranded in negative equity out there and cannot get back closer to the town they ALWAYS wanted to live in or near ....but were forced out . Yet their vote is in that outer band and they will use that vote.

The Pale (in my example) is not PD territory but it IS FF territory , core 2 out of 3 seats in a three seater kind of territory and it always was .

Until now.
 
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most people contributing to this thread seem to be relishing the prospect of a severe correction in Irish property prices - what is the motivation behind this ??

1) to see the government get a serious black-eye?
2) to see their neighbour with the 2nd and 3rd house get a black eye?
3) to eventually be proved correct after 8 years of saying 'property prices can't keep rising'
4) genuine empathy with first-time buyers being priced out of the market

I get the feeling that, human nature being what it is, we will all say (4) but options 1-3 are probably the primary motivations.......
 
well in my case i'm a FTB priced out but then again I dont mind as I'm currently saving a fortune as my rent is much lower than my mortgage would be for the same place in Dublin

so after 4 it would be 3 (haven't been saying for 8 years though , only about 1 year) , 1 and 2
 
bogwarrior said:
most people contributing to this thread seem to be relishing the prospect of a severe correction in Irish property prices - what is the motivation behind this ??

1) to see the government get a serious black-eye?
2) to see their neighbour with the 2nd and 3rd house get a black eye?
3) to eventually be proved correct after 8 years of saying 'property prices can't keep rising'
4) genuine empathy with first-time buyers being priced out of the market

I get the feeling that, human nature being what it is, we will all say (4) but options 1-3 are probably the primary motivations.......
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5) Seeing property speculators being caught with their pants down when prices drop. That would be nice.
 
redo said:
5) Seeing property speculators being caught with their pants down when prices drop. That would be nice.
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All 5 actually :D ( but not equally weighed) and as regards 2) Only the ones who keep annoying me with their constant "you cannot ever lose on property" guffins .

Some of do not believe that a large property bubble is a substitute for a real economy producing real goods and services .

Some of us do not belive that national newspapers uniquely full of colour property supplements constitutes a FREE PRESS

Some of us do not believe that a tent full of yahoos at the Galway Races is government for the people and by the people and of the people .

Nor do some of us believe that a 35 year sentence to financial imperillment far beyond Dunboyne is a fair consequence of the incompetence of our government parties, PD and FF , in a country with scads and scads and scads of usable and serviceable land available .
 
redo said:
5) Seeing property speculators being caught with their pants down when prices drop. That would be nice.
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But why? What is actually wrong with speculating... thats what keeps the wheels turning in the economy.

Are you just peeved off that you did not get in on the act a few years back & now you've lost out on a few 100k of easy money?

..... a nation of begrudgers etc etc..
 
to be honest if you own one house you've made little to no profit from 100k price rise (seeing as how you need to sell to get your profit and other houses will be in the same price realm) IMHO alot of people seem to forget this

secondly, if someone has made 100k by actually buying a 2nd property and then selling it on then fair balls to em
 
I spoke to someone from Florida recently and he summed up my feelings towards this farce. He was priced out of the market originally by speculators (many Irish investors) and is currently watching property prices tumble.

He said that it is all very well being able to pick up the house of your dreams for a song but it's ultimately pointless if you lose your job at the same time.

It's not just jobs in construction that will go lads, it'll be a full scale recession. Nobody should be happy when this deck of cards comes tumbling down (no matter how softly it does so).
 
ninsaga said:
Are you just peeved off that you did not get in on the act a few years back & now you've lost out on a few 100k of easy money?
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Not at all. Have a nice house with wife and kid. No investment properties.

Please note, I have no beef with property investors, whom after carefull analysis, will see it as a long term investment and know what they are getting into.
 
What riles me is the sheepishness of people lead into debt slavery for the price of a humble piece of land and an assortment of p poor building materials. The fact that this tardy charade has been foisted on people on so many occasions makes the farce only more exasperating. The whole bubble adds not one whit to the advancement of society.
 
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