Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

Status
Not open for further replies.

cormacol

Frequent Poster
Messages
109
I think that the mad increases we saw at the start of the year were the last rush before the bubble popped. Given prices around Dublin i wouldn't be surprised to see a major drop in prices. But what are peoples views on other areas of the country
 

Duplex

Frequent Poster
Messages
155
I think you're right..Big difference between 200,000 posts and 200,000 views though.
Btw 2 points:
1.Thats the second time the Indo have referenced this thread to write a news story (The other time being when they mentioned the 'source' who knew an estate agent..)
2.The Indo is also the most commonly quoted newspaper here.. Almost on a daily basis..

OWN UP: How many on here work for the Indo!!?
Dam you; I am unmasked. You can call me Tony.:D
 

Calina

Frequent Poster
Messages
44
Can anyone convince me that a "major downturn" is NOT going to happen next year? I have been trying to convince family and friends to be prudent and get their finances in order to ensure they are not caught out - but sure enough they are not listening and that apartment in sunny beach in Bulgaria is just too tempting.

I seem to be on my own and am been ignored now by friends because I am too negative.

Someone convince me that Im being too negative and should spend,spend,spend like everyone else seems to be doing.
Uhem, this is probably not the best place to ask for that seeing as most of us have been expecting a downturn/correction/crash for the past six to eight months.
 

Arthur Daley

Frequent Poster
Messages
36
I think that it shows how clever this thread is and how clued in some of you guys are on here that this story appears in the Independent today as well as the Dermor Desmond viewpoint which was mentionned on this thread a few weeks back..........

Nice one my son;)
 

howstrange

Registered User
Messages
12
Can anyone convince me that a "major downturn" is NOT going to happen next year? I have been trying to convince family and friends to be prudent and get their finances in order to ensure they are not caught out - but sure enough they are not listening and that apartment in sunny beach in Bulgaria is just too tempting.

I seem to be on my own and am been ignored now by friends because I am too negative.

Someone convince me that Im being too negative and should spend,spend,spend like everyone else seems to be doing.
I know thats the problem with going against the grain!! I feel the exact same as that. But people dont want to hear the fundamental reasons why you should not buy now. They just think you are mad.

What do mean house prices are going to go down? Rent is dead money!! But you cant lose with property!! But I dont want to miss the out before its too late. But johnny down the road made a fortune with his house!! blah blah!!

The media, banks and EA's have everybody brainwashed in this country. Thats why it might take a bit longer for a crash to kick in. It is going to be so hard for most people to drop their asking price. They just wont understand the fact that the reason nobody is buying their house is because it is too expensive. They will struggle on for months giving out that nobody is coming to view it before they will drop the price. Sure property doesnt go down in value!!! Thats insane!!!!
 

Duplex

Frequent Poster
Messages
155
is that why you were so interested in the IT's rationale for buying MyHome.ie, then?
No. I'm fascinated by the juxtaposition between the IT's coverage of a manic speculative market driven by ignorance and blind greed. And their self-appointed role as Ireland's quality newspaper, which would suggest a degree of aloof high mindedness. I loathe hypocrisy.
 
Z

Zarathustra

Guest
As the sentiment looks like it's now pegged firmly in the slowdown/crash side, I propose a new question: How far do you think things will fall?

There are three elements to that:

1) Assuming an over-reaction, what do you think a likely percentage fall is?
2) What sort of fall would return prices to sound fundamentals?
3) What time frame are we looking at for hitting the bottom, and then to the return to "correct" prices.

I bought in 2001. Since then, my property has gone up almost 100%. As far as I can see, none of that was merited, but the price I paid in 2001 seems like a reasonable price -- comparing it to what it would likely rent for.

I can see falls of 50% (bringing it back to what I consider a fair price) happening in the next 2-3 years. I doubt it'll fall quicker than that, but I could be wrong.
 

whathome

Frequent Poster
Messages
158

hmmm

Frequent Poster
Messages
128
I can see falls of 50% (bringing it back to what I consider a fair price) happening in the next 2-3 years. I doubt it'll fall quicker than that, but I could be wrong.
People seem to be dismissing the idea of 50% falls, but I agree with you that it's more than possible. If you accept the notion that rents versus purchase price is the housing equivalent of a P/E ratio, to return us to our long term average "housing P/E ratio" in Dublin would require a fall of at least 50%.
 

room305

Frequent Poster
Messages
477
As the sentiment looks like it's now pegged firmly in the slowdown/crash side, I propose a new question: How far do you think things will fall?
How long is a piece of string? I'm assuming a correction of between 10%-30% of the next three to four years in nominal terms. That will be a 50% correction or more in real terms. Once things bottom out it is unlikely we'll see double digit growth in houses again for quite some time.
 
T

tententwenty

Guest
I can see falls of 50% (bringing it back to what I consider a fair price) happening in the next 2-3 years. I doubt it'll fall quicker than that, but I could be wrong.
I agree, 50% seems about right, although not in all areas. Some of the more "optimistically" priced properties could fall even further, while for good locations you might be looking at 20-30% dropoffs. This time next year the dust should be clearing, I reckon.
 

Duplex

Frequent Poster
Messages
155
As the sentiment looks like it's now pegged firmly in the slowdown/crash side, I propose a new question: How far do you think things will fall?

There are three elements to that:

1) Assuming an over-reaction, what do you think a likely percentage fall is?
2) What sort of fall would return prices to sound fundamentals?
3) What time frame are we looking at for hitting the bottom, and then to the return to "correct" prices.

I bought in 2001. Since then, my property has gone up almost 100%. As far as I can see, none of that was merited, but the price I paid in 2001 seems like a reasonable price -- comparing it to what it would likely rent for.

I can see falls of 50% (bringing it back to what I consider a fair price) happening in the next 2-3 years. I doubt it'll fall quicker than that, but I could be wrong.
Net Yields on investment property in the 2-3% range at present. I estimate that they will rise to 7-8% over the next couple of years. (still low by historic standards) Oversupply, a sharp global slowdown and rising unemployment will play a part, a credit squeeze and emigration by guest workers and natives will add to the the markets woes. So a drop of approx 50% over several years.
 
P

phoenix_n

Guest
Since i think i called the crash here first i am going to reiterate again my figure of a fall.

40% by xmas. Main Dublin market with the obvious exceptions. (i.e. leafy surburbs)
 

conor_mc

Frequent Poster
Messages
159
Since i think i called the crash here first i am going to reiterate again my figure of a fall.

40% by xmas. Main Dublin market with the obvious exceptions. (i.e. leafy surburbs)
Can see 40% eventually, but not by Christmas.

I know you've justified this before by saying that the 40% drop would take a few more months beyond Christmas to materialise, but I think the rest of us consider a 40% drop to have occurred when houses are actually sold for 40% less than their neighbours and not just when buyers would like/expect to buy them for 40% less but the sellers just haven't revised their expectations yet.
 

Superman

Frequent Poster
Messages
595
Personally I think even rents relative to salaries in comparison with other European countries are high. Coupled with the fact that a slowdown would result in unemployment, and less immigration and possibly even emigration I can foresee rents falling in real terms in the future.
So while I think that property prices should be 50% of what they currently are to be in line with current rents, I could foresee a fall in property prices above this - maybe 60-65% though obviously this would play out over 12-15 years.
At the same time, considering Irish people's love of property it might only fall to 50%.
 
S

SHARP

Guest
I know thats the problem with going against the grain!! I feel the exact same as that. But people dont want to hear the fundamental reasons why you should not buy now. They just think you are mad.

What do mean house prices are going to go down? Rent is dead money!! But you cant lose with property!! But I dont want to miss the out before its too late. But johnny down the road made a fortune with his house!! blah blah!!

The media, banks and EA's have everybody brainwashed in this country. Thats why it might take a bit longer for a crash to kick in. It is going to be so hard for most people to drop their asking price. They just wont understand the fact that the reason nobody is buying their house is because it is too expensive. They will struggle on for months giving out that nobody is coming to view it before they will drop the price. Sure property doesnt go down in value!!! Thats insane!!!!
I seem to merge 2 topics to one to be honest and maybe that why Im seen as negative. I firmly believe that the property market built this country to the insane levels of debt its finds itself in, but I also this the property market will bring the people in this country to their knees and into a dark place for a term of at least 5+ years.

I think we will have huge job losses and it will all stem from the downturn in property. When I discuss this with people, they think Im mad and just think everything will either stay the same or just grow a bit slower.

Im trying to be positive (because my wife is sick of me going on about it), but I just think the country and its people are out of control and we have dark days ahead. This thread is really about how are live's are going to change for the worse over the next few years.
 

robd

Frequent Poster
Messages
142
Here's another significant drop, this is the second time the asking price has been dropped on this one in Sutton:

Original Price: €835,000
http://216.239.59.104/search?q=cache:3tOaU5NejCMJ:www3.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=271167&np=&nsa=&devid=+28+Kilbarrack+Road+bungalow&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=10

New Price: €750,000
http://www.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=271167&np=&rt=search&searchlist=

It was at €795,000 for a few months in between.
This is something that really annoys me with Estate Agents.

This house is acutally in Kilbarrack not Sutton. Kilbarrack, Coolock, Donaghmede and Bayside have all disappeared over the last 5+ years. They've become Raheny and Sutton. Same with areas of Killester, Marino and all of Dollymount becoming Clontarf

Wonder how long they'll continute to get away with this in a falling market. They should be brought to book for false advertising at the very least.
 
T

tententwenty

Guest
This thread is really about how are live's are going to change for the worse over the next few years.
Well its an ill wind in fairness. Some businesses will do well, others will utterly collapse. How would you go about crash-proofing yourself (if this really is the last gasp)?
 

BigM

Frequent Poster
Messages
79
Since i think i called the crash here first i am going to reiterate again my figure of a fall.

40% by xmas. Main Dublin market with the obvious exceptions. (i.e. leafy surburbs)
Not sure by Christmas, but there's definitely room for 40% drops over the next 8/9 months - especially for 'stressed vendors' in 2Pac's (RIP) Back of Ballivor areas. But people who paid up for houses in desirable (to them) locations will likely just take the pain of IR hikes rather than realise losses - also must consider that anyone who bought even 18mths ago can probably take a 30% fall in the 'paper' value of their home.

My barometer is the following:
http://www1.myhome.ie/search/property.asp?id=277877&np=&rt=search&searchlist=
Went on sale (private treaty) back at the start of July (bad timing) asking €1.65mio. Sat there all summer. Now it's being auctioned on 3rd Oct - AMV €1.65mio. Let's see what happens.......
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top