Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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whathome

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From today's Independent...

Desmond warning on property bubble
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=35&si=1687460&issue_id=14637

"DERMOT Desmond, who is one of Ireland's top financiers, has warned of a bubble in the Irish property market. "


IS THE PARTY FINALLY OVER?
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=184&si=1687282&issue_id=14637

"IS the great Irish property party finally coming to an end? The question has been prompted by a number of recent indicators that appear to suggest early signs of a slowdown in the property market. "
 
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random2006

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tententwenty

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200,000 posts, sheesh thats a lot more than Ive read! Nice of them to actually quote the website though!
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Must have been all that tedious circular bickering! :D Awww just kidding whathome, we love you really. Lets keep it on topic now!
 
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phoenix_n

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Guys with this thread now advertised on the Indo thats the end of this thread as its gonna blow out and attract flamers etc .
So all the best. Enjoyed watching in real time the crashing of the market.
 

CelloPoint

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Here is an unnecessarily long post:

Here's a set of ideas I cobbled together from better people's quotes on other boards. I even suggested it four years ago on a board that is no longer. Too late now, but here is the gist of it.

Why regulate a desirably open market. Well, because people like stablity and safety especially when there are children around. Once upon a time driver licences were not regulated, and now look at us drive. I wonder what it could be like if there was no regulation? Economics like atomic physics works on the principles that chaotic atoms in a relatively vacent space rarely initially clash. Over time they clash more; add more atoms and they are bound to clash until gradually they follow universal principle of physics - binding and attraction etc. - to find a mutually acceptable temporary conclusion. Buying property will eventually lead to the same conclusion with a market solution. However unlike other creatures we can self examine in an abstract sense and act communially to a mutually profitable outcome. That's called regulation to you and me. Too much is horrendous and once indroduced it has to be continually monitored and adjusted, but it is possible.

The objective is to create efficient use of land with regards to residential use. Following the concept (below) developers would move to high value family apartments in 15+ story buildings in the city centre, possibly dual purpose office space. Those high wealth individuals would push for a high quality infrastucture in a high density - high quality residental area, that means a good metro system to you and me. Why high value - well the rich won't let their high rise turn to ruins. The biggish houses on the communter belt that are not listed can be grouped and redeveloped into mixed density suburban housing hopefully with better infrastructure. Growth can be sustained and property can be sold on more level playing field.

Idea
Primary residence is tax free to a limit, twice that limit if it is used as a home business (inc. farm), both annually provable. Garden space is non taxable to the same space as the house allowance and three times the house allowance if it is a working yard(annually provable). 2 parents with 3 children can have a working house of 600SqM (Rural surgery/B&B) and a working yard of 900SqM(creche play area etc). There after each square metre is annually charged at a base rate by an annually adjusted local services multiplier. Underground utilities (parking, storage, laundry rooms) are not taxed, but surface parking eats up garden allowance. Commerical/farming property is treated under current statute or adjusted as appropriately. This does not apply to mobile homes.
Sq. metres Number of people living at that address
70------------1
125----------2
+35...-------+1...

Accommodation registered with the tenancy board can have the same allowances. This provides rentable accommodation and removes speculators/holiday home owners and empty (inefficient) houses from the market. An extra exit tax should be placed on the sale of rented accommodation. This means that rental investors would really want to make a profit and provide a quality service. However if a house has been converted from a rented house to a primary residence for two years (allowing rented rooms) then no exit tax would be charged.

Unfortunately this requires a national compulsory biometric identiy card - social welfare, driving licence, revenue work status, electorial/census register, primary residence, nationality, age, gender. Why? Well random audits would have to be carried out. Fortunately it would be the speculators or the suspected social housing manipulators that would have most of the audits. Also a big help would be to push the lending stress test criteria from a 2% to 3.5% phased over the next 28 months.

Incidentally mortgage is from the French 'death gauge' or gauge of how long you have left to live.

Commence the hold poking.
Mmm. Sounds like your plan involves employing lots of civil servants and lots of money. Don't expect me to stick around to pay for the mess someone else has created.

I despise the idea of biometric ids, property tax and civil servants with clip-boards poking around in your personal day-to-day business. And why do farmers get special treatment?
 
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random2006

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Guys with this thread now advertised on the Indo thats the end of this thread as its gonna blow out and attract flamers etc .
So all the best. Enjoyed watching in real time the crashing of the market.
I really hope this doesnt happen. Ive been reading this thread from the start, and was quite bearish but didnt think that prices would start falling seriously until one of the big players agreed with the bears here! While there has been a little bit of straying off topic it has generally been (IMHO) a good debate and a thread, and being a novice investor, that I have learned a lot from, not just regarding housing but investing in general.

Now that somebody has called it, (or suggested that it might slowdown) what do you reckon the odds are on this site being dragged into the blame game: well if AAM hadnt started spreading rumours of sellers dropping prices and highlighting the number of empty houses, everything would have been grand!!
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Afuera

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From today's Independent...

IS THE PARTY FINALLY OVER?
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=184&si=1687282&issue_id=14637

"IS the great Irish property party finally coming to an end? The question has been prompted by a number of recent indicators that appear to suggest early signs of a slowdown in the property market. "
Wow. If I was a recent investor I would not like the sound of this at all... without capital appreciation and with such low yields how can they hope to get any return?

[FONT=Verdana, Arial] "Developers are not increasing prices. They are responding to interest rates. Developers want a flow of business; they don't want a slowdown." - [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial]Hooke & MacDonald managing director Ken MacDonald[/FONT]
 

Duplex

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Great Scott even the Irish Times are at it. 'Around the Block' the usually simpering, and self satisfied weekly take on the market, seems to have gone around the bend. What next?




Around the Block: It's time for vendors to get realistic - that's the message coming loud and clear from estate agents who are walking a fine line between wanting to attract new business and not get their clients' hopes up with unrealistic price expectations.

Viewings were fairly quiet over last weekend, with houses that might have attracted 60 to 100 viewers earlier in the year getting just 20 or 30 people through the door, with plenty of nosey neighbours included.
The first wave of auctions next week should give a good indication as to how the season will pan out, but meanwhile agents are telling customers that, with such a vast number of houses on the market, the selling process may take longer than usual - particularly in areas with a cluster of auction signs up.

The huge number of properties that have suddenly appeared on the market may well be soaked up before Christmas, but the reality is that many vendors who have been holding out for years, as they watched prices rise, may have left it too late to get that magic amount that will give them a trade-down home, a pension, and a leg up for the kids.
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/property/2006/0914/1158001545808.html
 

Firefly

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Was it not Dermot Desmond who paid 45m for a place on Shrewsbury Rd last year?

He must have something up his sleeve....no better man than the Kaiser to make a killing on a market change...

Firefly.
 

bearishbull

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Was it not Dermot Desmond who paid 45m for a place on Shrewsbury Rd last year?

He must have something up his sleeve....no better man than the Kaiser to make a killing on a market change...

Firefly.
Trophy homes may hold value, im sure he just wanted house and has made enough along the way not to be worried about it halving in value.
 
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SHARP

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Can anyone convince me that a "major downturn" is NOT going to happen next year? I have been trying to convince family and friends to be prudent and get their finances in order to ensure they are not caught out - but sure enough they are not listening and that apartment in sunny beach in Bulgaria is just too tempting.

I seem to be on my own and am been ignored now by friends because I am too negative.

Someone convince me that Im being too negative and should spend,spend,spend like everyone else seems to be doing.
 

Duplex

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Can anyone convince me that a "major downturn" is NOT going to happen next year? I have been trying to convince family and friends to be prudent and get their finances in order to ensure they are not caught out - but sure enough they are not listening and that apartment in sunny beach in Bulgaria is just too tempting.

I seem to be on my own and am been ignored now by friends because I am too negative.

Someone convince me that Im being too negative and should spend,spend,spend like everyone else seems to be doing.
Never attempt to stop a stampede, observe yes; but stand in front of it flailing your arms, no.
 

mortimer33

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am guessing they mixed up the number of views with the number of posts, but that, I guess is just by the way.
I think you're right..Big difference between 200,000 posts and 200,000 views though.
Btw 2 points:
1.Thats the second time the Indo have referenced this thread to write a news story (The other time being when they mentioned the 'source' who knew an estate agent..)
2.The Indo is also the most commonly quoted newspaper here.. Almost on a daily basis..

OWN UP: How many on here work for the Indo!!?
 

Howitzer

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Was it not Dermot Desmond who paid 45m for a place on Shrewsbury Rd last year?

He must have something up his sleeve....no better man than the Kaiser to make a killing on a market change...

Firefly.
He's already made his killing, sure didn't he sell his stake in Greencore (now simply a property shell company, that also makes sambos) last month to that generous property investor fellow Liam Carroll.
 
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