Hi Shortie
There is nothing speculative about predicting its demise. Bitcoin will demise itself. That is a certainty. Have no doubt about it.
Making a short term forecast of an irrationally priced thing is not very sensible. That is why when Firefly started the
Bitcoin valuation game I did not make any short-term predictions, but focussed on the end of 2018 price which I believe will be <$100.
I might well be wrong about the timing, but not about its ultimate value which is zero.
Brendan
I find it incredible that you are predicting the demise of BTC with such certainty and dismissing it as nothing more than gambling. On what basis are you making that assumption? Do you apply the same logic to all Cryptos or just BTC? Also, do you have a good understanding of the underlying technology of blockchain when you make all your assumptions?
Could BTC crash to less than €100 by the end of 2018.....yes of course it's a possibility, but extremely unlikely in my opinion and especially in such a short timeframe. I should state for the record that BTC's technology is actually far inferior to many other Cryptos in my opinion both recent and more established ones like ETH etc so I am not particularly bullish on BTC over the long term. In fact I would see a 'flippining' happening at some point down the road (perhaps the next 2-4 years) where the stronger ones overtake it (by market cap, transaction numbers and use cases etc). So for that reason I don't hold BTC but I do hold a number of alt coins including some from ICO stage.
Even though I am not bullish on BTC's long term dominance, I still don't see it crashing to zero or anywhere near it for that matter. I still feel it may well hold on to it's 'digital gold' status over the long term but perhaps trade at a more modest price compared to other Crytpos (which still might be a lot higher than where it is today price-wise). Anyone shorting BTC today is absolutely insane in my opinion.
It drives me crazy when the 'overly conservative' among us (sorry Brendan but I would have to put you in that category) just dismiss BTC/Blockchain/Cryptos as either a big ponzi scheme that 'has to' come crashing down without at least talking about the underlying technology and what Cryptos can and will do in the future. And if I hear the word Tulipmania one more time....
By the way, Tulipmania lasted about 1 year if I remember correctly.......BTC has been around for nearly 10 years which is a lifetime in technology terms too!
I'm not for 1 second suggesting that many Cryptos (perhaps 95%) are not going to crash and burn, I truly believe they most likely will. We all know there are a ridiculous amount of scams and even just plain stupic Cryptos which are not going anywhere fast! They will die out just like a poorly run company. It is the recent hype in Cryptos that have kept these sh1tcoins afloat but the tide will go out on these in the medium to long term, no doubt about that, as people get more savvy on which ones are the winners. Also the industry itself needs to find it's feet as it's still in it's infancy obviously but water finds it's level and so too will Cryptos. I see it as almost identical in many ways to the internet when it was first born. No one really had a clue that it was going to do all the amazing things it does today (including smartphones apps, cloud computing, social media etc etc). But people did generally have a fair idea that the internet was going to be HUGE and a game changer.
Needless to say back in the dot.com bubble, many people got burned because they just piled into EVERY company in the space thinking they were all going to do well. That's happening right now in Cryptos and so many people will get their a$$e$ handed to them at some stage down the road. As I said earlier, despite BTC's inferior technology and scaling issues etc (which are actually solvable by the way and the vested interests may well reach agreement eventually on solving it at some stage) I still don't think it will be one of the major casualties because of it's 'brand' awareness and 'digital gold' status etc.
Anyway, enough of a rant from me on this but I just wanted to at least through in some counter arguments to the complete dismissal of BTC/Cryptos.....it really does drive me insane when I hear people saying it. It's also worth noting that it normally comes from people in the financial services industry (obviously a massive threat to the industry) and from people of a certain generation. We are in a RAPIDLY changing world with technology at the forefront of this change. People are afraid of change and will pushback against things like this so it is to be expected. It's like most people in their 50's or younger who are lucky enough to have their parents still alive.......they are in the main clueless when it comes to computers, smartphones, gadgets etc and it's frustrating to watch them not utilize such life enhancing tools (they are only here to help make our lives easier/better even if they don't always achieve that function!). The question is.....do you want to be this person in the decades ahead when you go to give your kids pocketmoney in cash and they look at you as if you've got 10 heads!
I'd love to hear your arguments against any of my comments but please go into more detail if you are going to just dismiss BTC/Cryptos as nothing more than pure speculation and a gamble!
