Yet another Government/Politicians Rant

[Sunny]

I am sorry for starting another thread on this and I thought I had got it all out of my system already but the latest news and set of interviews, I have realised I haven't!

Rant No 1: Does Martin Cullen really need to spend over €6000 getting a helicopter to speak at 2.30pm at the Irish Hotels Federation conference. I know its not alot of money but for God's sake.

Rant No 2: Mary White coming out suggesting a 1c tax on all texts would raise over €1 billion. And then she came on the radio suggesting we can get actuaries to do the maths when it was put to her that it would only raise €90 million. A 7 year old would be able to research how many texts we send and how much revenue it would generate.

Rant No 3: Mary Coughlan last week was on the airwaves saying the public finances were under control and there was no need for a new budget. Seven days later and we are having a new budget.

Rant No 4: Micheal Martin was on RTE going on about how the Government have been making tough decisions and they have already raised €2 billion by introducing the pensions levy. NO THEY HAVEN'T. They rasied less than a billion because they forgot about tax relief.

Rant No 5: The Governments refusal to call this a mini-budget or budget. If it walks like a duck and sounds like a duck, then it is a duck. Stop treating us like idiots.

Rant No 6: I am sick and tired of the Government being behind the curve and having to react all the time. They genuinely seemed surprised at the exchequer figures for the first two months. You don't need to be an expert to know that rising unemployment, falling consumer spending, pay cuts, lower corporate profits = lower taxes. Everyone and I mean everyone were saying their projections were too optomistic when they announced the last budget. It is time to plan for the worst like any normal person would do with a budget in these times.

Rant No 7: Looking at the muppets in the Dail last night make these speeches, I actually did wonder for the first time if these guys actually did understand how bad it is for the man on the street. I am beginning to believe that they do live in an ivory tower. They pop around to meetings in helicoptors, they enjoy high six figure salaries and they enjoy pension benefits that are out of this world and they come onto radios and televisions talking crap and treating us like fools.

I am sure I will have a few more rants before the morning is up.

 

[PaddyW]

They seem to be getting further and further out of touch with reality. They had their chance to really get things in order last October. Everyone was expecting tax hikes, budget cuts, the lot. We were all prepared for it. We were all expecting the pain. We were all ready to accept what ever was thrown at us. They missed their opportunity and now people are going to find all these changes less acceptable.

What hope has this country really got when we are being led (and I use the word "led" in very loose terms) by a government that has no bloody idea.

 

[Caveat]

Rant No 6: I am sick and tired of the Government being behind the curve and having to react all the time. They genuinely seemed surprised at the exchequer figures for the first two months. You don't need to be an expert to know that rising unemployment, falling consumer spending, pay cuts, lower corporate profits = lower taxes. Everyone and I mean everyone were saying their projections were too optomistic when they announced the last budget. It is time to plan for the worst like any normal person would do with a budget in these times.

This might be of interest (courtesy of Ulster Bank cheif economist Pat McArdle)

Taxes undershoot again in Feb …

The absence of the usual monthly profile of receipts and expenditure makes it difficult to analyse the Budgetary performance other than to say that it is not good. This was confirmed by the Government which, unusually, issued a Press Release with the February data saying that it “is already clear that tax revenues in 2009 are under pressure”.

To-date, the Dept has unveiled several tax estimates for 2009. These are reproduced below in chronological order.
Budget 07 – 6 Dec 2006 - €56.3 billion
Budget 08 – 5 Dec 2007 - €51.8 billion
Budget 09 – 14 Oct 2008 - €42.8 billion
Update 09 – 9 Jan 2009 - €37.0 billion
UB est – 3 Mar 2009 - €34.0 billion.

The difference between the first and the last is €22 billion which is a rough approximation of the amount to be raised by cutting spending, increasing taxes etc.

However, the most annoying omission is the monthly breakdown of the latest official tax revenue forecasts – these breakdowns, introduced by Charlie McCreevy to facilitate analysis, usually appear in January. In fact, the 9 January update, which was slipped out after close of business on a Friday evening, gives a round total only without even a breakdown into Income Tax, VAT etc.

We are thus forced to compare the Jan – Feb receipts with the corresponding period in 2008. Tax receipts for the two months were €5.8 billion as compared with €7.6 billion in 2008 and €8.2 billion in 2007. In fact, we have to go back to 2004 when receipts were €5.4 billion, to find a lower figure.

All tax heads contributed to shortfall …

The 2009 receipt was €1.8 billion below last year’s figure. All tax heads contributed to the shortfall. In absolute terms, VAT was the main contributor, down €452 million, CGT was down €375 million, and these were followed by Excises, minus €303 million, Corporation Tax, minus €241 million, and Stamp Duties, minus €219 million. Even Income Tax got in on the act, down €165 million.

It is probably more meaningful to look at them in percentage terms. Here CGT was the worst performer, down 72.6%, followed by Stamps 58.7% and Corporation Tax 37% - see table.

Property related taxes are still underperforming but the rot has spread to spending taxes such as VAT and excises which are now posting sizeable percentage and absolute falls. Clearly, the virtual absence of activity in the property and stock markets is affecting CGT and Stamps. However, the dramatic falloff in retail sales and other spending is increasingly impacting on VAT and excises. In the case of the latter, it is likely that VRT accounts for the vast bulk of the shortfall given that new car registrations are down 65% in the first two months.

The growing Income Tax decline reflects the worsening employment situation. It is still holding up reasonably well though receipts in Feb would have been boosted by the IT levy which yielded €50 to €60 million. However, Corporation Tax is a casualty reflecting the impact of the global recession on the big companies, including the banks, which operate here.

A further €4 billion in cuts now on the cards this year …

In the absence of proper information, one can only speculate as to the likely consequences for the full year. The fact that the Dept has pulled the blanket over its head tells you that it is not good. No doubt some will extrapolate from the two months’ figures and come up with horrendous numbers. This is dangerous as it pays insufficient attention to the pattern of activity last year which worsened steadily as the year progressed. Taking this into account, we reckon that the likely undershoot is of the order of €3 billion. This would take the 9 Jan estimate down to €34 billion, i.e. slightly above the receipt in 2004.

Current spend was up 3% but capital was down 7.1% in the first two months. Spending for the year is likely to overshoot by a billion reflecting higher social welfare given likely Live Register developments.

The total shortfall in the Budget numbers is, thus, of the order of €4 billion.

This is highly significant in the context of this evening’s Government statement that it will take the necessary action to ensure that the Deficit this year does not worsen from the forecast 9.5% of GDP. The implication is that further cuts of €4 billion are on the way – even more than €4 billion if we allow for the fact that almost a quarter of the year is gone.

The Government have just committed themselves to a task which is twice the size of the recent package of measures. On second thoughts, I take back what I said about the Department. Is there any more room under that blanket?

 

[Shawady]

Rant No 3: Mary Coughlan last week was on the airwaves saying the public finances were under control and there was no need for a new budget. Seven days later and we are having a new budget.

Rant No 4: Micheal Martin was on RTE going on about how the Government have been making tough decisions and they have already raised €2 billion by introducing the pensions levy. NO THEY HAVEN'T. They rasied less than a billion because they forgot about tax relief.

Rant No 5: The Governments refusal to call this a mini-budget or budget. If it walks like a duck and sounds like a duck, then it is a duck. Stop treating us like idiots.

Sunny,
I would aggree with all of that. How Mary Coughlan made that statement is unbelievable. She is beyond a joke at this stage.

Regards making tough decisions, they had to do u-turns on the October budget and the 'pension levy' will be a stroll in the park compared to decisions they will have to make in the near future. Wait until they touch social welfare, reduce minimum wage, bring low paid into the tax net etc.

If you consider that the €2 billion saving announcement in Feb ('Pension levy' was the bulk of that) was a mini-budget, this will be the second mini budget this year. Maybe we will have another one in April...........
Calling it a 'mini'-budget in itself is inaccurate. I heard Goerge Lee on the radio this morning stating that a lot of the measures introduced in the October budget brought in 1.25 billion. They have to bring in 2.5 billion in this new budget.
The income levy was the bulk of that at 850 million.

 

[Shawady]

Stop treating us like idiots.

Just one more thing. I find this annoying too. They introduced the income levy so they could say 'we did not raise taxes'. They introduced a pension levy so they could not call it a pay cut. They won't call this a budget.

I know any new government would have the same problems but should there be a general election now?
At least all the parties could spell out how the deficit is going to be dealt with if they are in power.

 

[Teatime]

Maybe its me but is Joan Burton the most boring and annoying politician in Ireland? She seems to be everywhere these days spouting the same old negative comments.

 

[fobs]

Maybe its me but is Joan Burton the most boring and annoying politician in Ireland? She seems to be everywhere these days spouting the same old negative comments.

She is a good talker but no substance! Pat RAbitte was the same last night as usual saying what he wouldn't do but would not be pressed on what he would do to income taxes. It is fine to be a popular party when you are against everything but are for nothing!

 

[Seagull]

How do we manage to bring politicians' salary and expenses in line with other people? I think they should have their salaries brought down significantly, and their expenses need a very drastic trim.

 

[bamboozle]

regardless of their salaries what really takes the biscuit is the fact many TD's & Senetors are currently earning pensions (former minister pension, former TD Pension) how on earth can they get away with this if they are still working in the public service???

FF have completely detached themselves from reality, they are still peddling this nonsense that the nations woes are due to the global banking crisis/credit crunch...when even the dogs on the street know the collapse of the construction industry has left this country on its knees...

 

[onekeano]

Completely agree with the above list Sunny, I can't understand how the likes of Coughlan and Martin can justify being paid a quarter of a million p.a. BEFORE their expenses. As for Cullen well.....less said the best! I honestly don't see why any TD should earn more that 100k and maybe ministers should be on 125k or so. I know it won't happen but if it did I couldn't see too many resigning because where else would they go!!!! Pay increases for these guys wen't thru the roof under Berties regime and the arrogance went up with them...............

 

[Purple]

Mary Coughlan is not up to the job. She should resign. It is very embarrassing to think that she is representing our country on an international stage (I was at a function in Switzerland which she spoke at and she made a show of herself and Ireland) and it's frightening to think that she might even be in the room when decisions are being made about how these bozo's are going to get us out of the mess that have made.

Mary Hannifin was on the radio today, she was forthright and gave a strong impression that she knew what she was talking about. Why the hell is she not Tánaiste (or even Taoiseach)?

 

[onekeano]

Mary Coughlan is not up to the job. She should resign. It is very embarrassing to think that she is representing our country on an international stage (I was at a function in Switzerland which she spoke at and she made a show of herself and Ireland) and it's frightening to think that she might even be in the room when decisions are being made about how these bozo's are going to get us out of the mess that have made.

Mary Hannifin was on the radio today, she was forthright and gave a strong impression that she knew what she was talking about. Why the hell is she not Tánaiste (or even Taoiseach)?

I work for a VERY large multinational in Dublin. We had just completed an investment of €25-30 million in a new mission and Coughlan was invited to the the opening (about 6 months ago). Lots of press & TV etc - she arrived VERY late waffled on to the extent that my boss (American with potentially lots of influence) said to me "she didn't appear to have even read the brief we provided!!!!" Scary stuff and I felt sorry for those poor buggers in Dell when I heard that Coughlan and Willie Wonky were heading to Texas to put the sqeeze on Michael Dell to save Limerick - Christ.

Spoke to someone else yesterday who met her in her office recently and the were brought in but again she wasn't ready so they were invited to take a seat while she tidied up a couple of things - apparently she was effing and blinding on the phone whilst the small delegation were cringing waiting for her to join them - serious personality deficit for 2nd in command of our country!

Roy

 

[Lex Foutish]

She is a good talker but no substance! Pat RAbitte was the same last night as usual saying what he wouldn't do but would not be pressed on what he would do to income taxes. It is fine to be a popular party when you are against everything but are for nothing!

Yeah, Fobs. Dead right. Rabbitte really annoyed me last night when Mark Little kept asking how high he would make the top rate of tax and he kept on talking about something else and totally refused to answer the question. (Matt Cooper wouldn't have left him off, I feel). When he was Labour Party leader, he was very quick with witty one liners, like Michael Noonan, fadó, fadó, but didn't seem to have anything else. And they both went the same road.

I'd love to see an Irish tv programme some night where the interviewer would insist that the politicians give a straight answer or nothing. Would it be the first 20 second long programme on RTE?

 

[Lex Foutish]

How do we manage to bring politicians' salary and expenses in line with other people? I think they should have their salaries brought down significantly, and their expenses need a very drastic trim.

Ministers boast that they've taken a 10% pay cut.

Am I right in thinking that they've taken a 10% cut in just the Ministerial Allowance part of their pay packet?

 

[cole]

Ministers boast that they've taken a 10% pay cut.

Am I right in thinking that they've taken a 10% cut in just the Ministerial Allowance part of their pay packet?

Correct afaik.

 

[S.L.F]

I think something to remember is that our beloved politicians have taken a 30% pay increase in the last 3 years so reducing it by 10% is a bit of a joke IMHO.

 

[AlastairSC]

I thought policitians' pay was linked to the rest of the public sector, that being the way they used to automatically get increases when the PS did. How can it be now that the PS takes cuts and the policitians don't? On the radio this am they said that such direct cuts would "require primary legislation". So, legislate then!!!! God knows how much stuff can be rushed through when they have a mind to. And why are Dail recesses so long? Much longer even than school holidays

 

[S.L.F]

I thought policitians' pay was linked to the rest of the public sector, that being the way they used to automatically get increases when the PS did. How can it be now that the PS takes cuts and the policitians don't? On the radio this am they said that such direct cuts would "require primary legislation". So, legislate then!!!! God knows how much stuff can be rushed through when they have a mind to. And why are Dail recesses so long? Much longer even than school holidays

Apparently it is linked to PS pay in some twisted way.

When benchmarking first came in who do you thing got the very first pay increase, politicians of course (they voted it in themselves)

Public service pay has increased by about 8% due to benchmarking but the TD have increased their wages by 30% in the same period

 

[Shawady]

She is a good talker but no substance! Pat RAbitte was the same last night as usual saying what he wouldn't do but would not be pressed on what he would do to income taxes. It is fine to be a popular party when you are against everything but are for nothing!

Did anyone see Joan Burton on Vincent Browne show last night?
For about 20 minuntes he pressed her on what part of the savings would come from cutting expenditure or increased taxes and she would/could not answer him. The average AAM poster can come up with at least a couple of suggestions to bring in money.
At one point she was going on about tax shelters for landlords but it was pointed out to her that they are self assessed and any money saved would not come until the end of the year and we need money now.
She did her party no favours at all.

 

[Purple]

Public service pay has increased by about 8% due to benchmarking but the TD have increased their wages by 30% in the same period

I agree that politicians are overpaid but your comment above is unfair; public service pay has increased about 8% due to benchmarking but has also increased due to national wage agreements etc. The same is the case for politicians.