Would you vote for a United Ireland?

B

Betsy Og

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I'd vote Yes.

I'd struggle to say why, probably, in the end, for the same reason I'd have voted for independence if I was a Scot - i.e. it feels right, it's the natural order, nationalist sentiment, heart overruling head.

Would that have caused me to vote for Brexit if I was English?, don't think so. The economic suicide is more pronounced and certain on Brexit (admittedly there's more than a dash of that going around re Scotland and UI), and I'm not fuelled by xenophobia (which seemed to be a fair element of Brexit). So the heart may have had a pang of sticking it to the stuffed shirts in Brussels, but don't think it would have been strong enough to overrule the head and land the UK is the soup in which it is currently flailing around....

So the questions are:

  1. How do you think you would vote?
  2. Do you have any strong reasons or are you conflicted and allowing the heart a 'free vote' on this one?
  3. Is Brexit the clearest instance of national hari kari in the Western World since WWII?
 
It would be a no for me I'm afraid. We'd be skint and the hassle that would come with it would clog up our already clogged up governmet further. NI is like a present to the English for all those years of oppression :p
 
I'd vote yes for what may be a once in a lifetime opportunity if it arose.

Yes it would cost the South money but in the long run, and with support from the EU USA and Brits, I think it would work out for the better (though security issues up North would be a serious headache). But how would my forefathers react if I was to vote no because it might hit my pocket hard, after all they had to go through to get even 26 counties free? A sentimental view of it, but it's how I look at it.

I respect the Brits for the Brexit decision. It seems mad now but who knows how it will work out.
They made a decision and are running with it, not like the soft Paddies who vote again to appease our European betters. While I think there's no appetite here to leave the EU, I'd like to think that Brexit has caused us to take a more critical look at our relationship with Brussels. When the IMF were telling the EU element of the Troika to take it easy during our bail out, then you'd have to question what we're a part of.
I know plenty of fishermen who'd have no time for the EU- we lost a lot there for example.
 
Delboy said:
They made a decision and are running with it
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I don't see the "shame" in asking the country to reconsider - esp in this case where its not to allow the European project to trundle on - its purely about what's best for the country. I'd be v confident of a stay decision given the supposed benefits evaporated immediately and its beginning to dawn on normal folk that there's lots of downside but hardly any upside. It now seems to be just a personal crusade for the Tory brexiteer element who won't be the ones to suffer the fall out, there'll still be brandy and cigars in the study and just keep the riff raff out.
 
I think you might be surprised how much appetite there could be if it was put to the vote! it wasn't only the fishermen who lost out.
 
The Good Friday Agreement says that only the people of NI will decide on the future status of NI. We agreed to that in a referendum. So there's no question of us getting to vote for a united Ireland before a majority in NI vote for it. If they did, I'd consider also voting for it on condition that a) the chances of unmanageable civil unrest seemed low and, b) the UK agreed to pay a very large amount of money for a transitional period ... and given the shambolic Brexit negotiations I'd only agree to that after the transitional money was agreed and signed for in blood.
 
dub_nerd said:
The Good Friday Agreement says that only the people of NI will decide on the future status of NI.
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I don't think that is quite true. The people of NI have a veto over changes to their status but they would need the consent of the people of the 26 counties to become part of a UI, same as they would need the consent of the Russian people to become part of the Russian Federation.

However, I agree with the rest of your post which essentially says that if the price is right we would relieve the UK of its burden. But then I guess that if the price was right I would be in favour of the RoI applying for membership of the RF.
 
What's the RF?

As for a United Ireland... I don't know.
There is a big cultural gap between us and Norn-Ireland and for me we are on the right side of that gap.
 
1. I'd vote no.

2. Because we are a million miles from being ready for a united Ireland, economically and it needs not just a majority of people in N Ireland to want it, but a majority of Unionists to want it.

3. Venezuela? The Euro? In the long run I think UK will be OK economically and I can understand why England voted to leave, versus Scots, Welsh, and those who think of themselves as 'British'. In hindsight, they should never have signed up to Maastricht, I think that was the point when they should have shouted stop.
Would have been a lot easier to extricate themselves them on favourable terms and with far less impact than doing it now. If it does turn out to be economic hari-kari then they will be bringing Irish farmers, French wine makers, German car markers, Spanish farmers with them.
 
dub_nerd said:
the UK agreed to pay a very large amount of money for a transitional period ... and given the shambolic Brexit negotiations I'd only agree to that after the transitional money was agreed and signed for in blood.
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This would be the key to get it over the line. The Brits would be delighted to get out of Ireland and they'd pay big money to do so, viewing it as money well spent.
 
I'd vote No. The republic has enough problems of its own without inheriting the problems of others. But, try explaining that to the Celtic jerseyed morons (aka steamed-up barstool republicans) who were screaming for Slovenia to beat England recently. England scored three minutes into injury time to win. If they hadn't scored Rep of Ireland wouldn't have qualified for the WC playoffs before they even kicked a ball from the 2nd last game.
 
Some seem to fear "contaigon", e.g. on the cultural side. I wouldn't see this as an issue. Nationalists could certainly emerge from the bunker. Maybe unionists/loyalists would get more entrenched, but that's hardly likely to spread to the 26 since I don't think there are too many closet unionists.

I would expect there would have to a watering down of some the "green", in terms of flag, anthem and maybe even Commonwealth membership. All open for discussion in my view. Tbh I'd be inclined to leave well enough alone for as long as possible, maybe the dwindling number of unionists will eventually get comfortable with the increasingly secular south. I think like most people in the South, once our northern counterparts are getting fair play (which they pretty much are now AFAIK), then we're not really that pushed about a 4th green field, we've enough on with the other 3. Would probably still vote Yes though.

You'd wonder will someone eventually come along in the Commons and just say, right, that's it, sick of writing cheques, do whatever ye want, ye are being set free, best of luck....
 
We'd need to wait until there is a Democrat President in the USA so that we can get a "peace dividend" ,i.e. hand-out, for taking on the economic basket case that is Northern Ireland. That and a big cash injection from HRH's government and the EU.
I think we'd have to join the Commonwealth as well but we can do that without the UK monarch being our head of state.
We'd have to come up with a flag that symbolises peace between the green and orange traditions, maybe a green section and an orange section with white in between to symbolise peace between the two?... oh, wait...
 
As a 'Northerner' I would probably be inclined to vote no even though my heart is probably more with Ireland than the UK, and I have more family ties down south

  1. I'm a Civil Servant - I'd probably be screwing myself out of a job!! About 30% of Northern Ireland residents are Public Sector employees, there's not going to be equivalent jobs for that many people in a united Ireland.
  2. I'm rather attached to the NHS with all its faults
  3. We'd get screwed on the exchange rate - when the Euro first came in we got around 1.4 / 1.5 Euro to the pound, now you're lucky if you get 1.10 - wages, investments and pensions would take a serious hit if they were to be converted to Euro at todays rate.
  4. With all the Brexit shenanigans going on I don't think the UK Government or the clowns in Stormont are competent enough to actually manage the transition.
On the other hand I would love to see the look on Arlene Foster's face if and when it did happen!!
 
If there was a vote, I would vote Yes, without hesitation.

I think the reality of the outcome of a vote in favour of ‘Yes’, in both jurisdications would differ somewhat from the perceived outcome.


The cost of NI

Its true that NI is heavily subsidised, but a ‘Yes’ vote on both sides of the border today would not translate in a hand-over of ownership tomorrow. In all probability, the process of transfer would take up to a decade or more. We only have to look to ‘Brexit’ to see the complexities and realities of transfer of power.

Firstly, the Irish and British governments, adhering to the GFA, would have to ensure a smooth as transition as possible. It would also be a responsibility of the EU and in the interests of the US to see this also. In political terms, this usually means $$££€€. Investing in transport, education would be key to any smooth transition, providing sustainable jobs for a decade or more.The EU, in supporting the GFA would also have an interest that any transfer of powers within its borders is done as smoothly as possible.

Part of the British strategy to combat the IRA was to invest heavily in public services in the North. The reason for this, I believe, was that if you provide people, young people in particular, with a job that has a future and potential prospects, then they will be less inclined to joined the ranks of paramilitaries. NI needs to divest from public sector jobs but invest in private sector jobs.

However, having said all that, my understanding is that some 30% of NI workforce is employed in the public sector. In the RoI, it is closer to 16%?. The workforce in NI is 900,000 (300,000 Public sector), in the ROI it is 2.2m (352,000 public sector?). A combined workforce would equate to 3.1m workforce and 652,000 public sector workforce (ie 21% in the public sector). * Figures are rough and are probably someway out, but the point is that a combined economy of RoI and NI wouldn’t be as heavy as burden as generally implied, assuming a transitional period of a decade or more.

Secondly, if a ‘Yes’ vote were ever to occur on both sides of the border, in real terms, it would take a sizeable chunk of the unionist vote to achieve this. We are a long way from that happening, but if it were to happen, then in effect it would mean Unionism was split. If Unionism were to split on the nationality question, then it is effectively dead. If Unionism was to split on the national question, then a smooth transition under the principle of ‘exclusively peaceful and democratic means’ should be achievable.

On the other hand, any remaining rump of Unionism, opposed to a UI, should they take the Carson line ‘that there are more important things than parliamentary majorities’, or more recently, the sinister musings of John Taylor who stated that 50% plus 1 vote in favour of a UI would lead to a civil war, then we would have to consider what was the point in standing up to the IRA for all those years only to succumb, once again, to the threat of loyalist violence?

So to answer the question, Yes, unequivocally.
 
hfp said:
  1. We'd get screwed on the exchange rate - when the Euro first came in we got around 1.4 / 1.5 Euro to the pound, now you're lucky if you get 1.10 - wages, investments and pensions would take a serious hit if they were to be converted to Euro at todays rate.
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It's an interesting point but the financial gurus would argue that this is an illusion. The exchange rate is the exchange rate. Certainly I would envisage that you would have the option of keeping your deposits in sterling or converting to euro, an option which currently exists in theory.

On State pensions there would be a big reluctance, I think, to have them switched from £ to € even if in theory the prevailing FX rate is the fair basis for doing this. Of course when it comes to the OAP there would be the sweetener that RoI rates are about double NI rates.

The unification of Germany is an interesting precedent. The Ost Mark was trading at 4 to 1 in the black market prior to unification but as a sweetener the German government converted all Ost Mark deposits to D-marks at 1 for 1:rolleyes:

But of course all this is a long way off. If the wheels come off Brexit then expect parity to be breached and it could actually turn out to be a sweetener as in the German case to have your sterling deposits converted to euro at par.
 
Duke, I'm anxious to know where you stand on the substantive issue - i.e. how you'd vote?, I think of you are being like the Oracle from the Matrix when it comes to matters Nordy. :D

p.s. any connection to other Nordy Duke, the Special one? He of dreadlocks and crooning.
 
Ah Betsy, you are winding me up:rolleyes:

But you have given me pause for thought. As you seem to be aware from my earlier musings, I was born and reared in West Belfast, in a culture where we sang "A Nation Once Again" and "Kevin Barry" in primary school class.

I am all for people uniting, a united Europe, a united Spain, a United Kingdom. But I fear the republican movement has seriously poisoned the case for a United Ireland.

Nowhere is this best exemplified than with the current impasse in NI. Seems to be all about an Irish language Act. Something that is seen as harmless pampering of a Gaelic speaking minority in Scotland or Wales has been positioned as a symbol of sectarian one upmanship by Sinn Fein. The unionist community, including its many good guys, have been thoroughly turned off the concept.

So at the present time my heart would not be for a UI. As a citizen of the Republic my head would most certainly not be for a UI (unless it came with a very substantial EU/UK bribe).

So the answer to your question is that I would vote No.

p.s. The answer to your p.s. is No.
 
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Yep, the Irish language thing seems all faintly ridiculous. From my admittedly very limited (& historic at this stage) contact with the unionist community the vibe I got is that they don't really see the south as being a threat, but that SF are operating a good few octaves above where they need to be and where most Southerners are. Whether than would ever lead Unionists to want to join a much diluted 'normal' country rather than continually banging heads with the headbangers is probably a bit of a stretch, but there's probably something in that. It's like us 'free staters' sometimes say - they're a different breed up there (talking about nationalists) - as in, would they ever chill out and move on at this stage.

Deary me, looks like its only myself and the Celtic jersey/slab of Dutch Gold brigade who would be voting yes, never thought I'd be in that camp :(.
 
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