Who will form the next government?

Status
Not open for further replies.
odyssey06 said:
We could be waiting a while for the next government to be formed, if the numbers are very tight and the 5 seater in Tipperary doesn't vote until end of the month due to the death of one of the candidates.
Click to expand...
In 1948 the general election was held on 4 feb same thing happened in carlow- Kilkenny general election held on 8 feb for carlow-kilkenny,
WE will see how long it takes the Minister for housing to react,
 
(1)Leo won by a mile last night
(2)Mary Lou, Michael did her some favors like reminding the protest vote that voting for SF with 42 Candidates can do no harm with an increase in vote He also put her into positions at times where it looked like she had more passion than Leo and Michael Put together,
(3) Michael lost ground to FG all night long,and did SF no harm,on a few occasions acknowledge she was a better debater than himself in a around
about way, She had his measure taken and he know it and let it slip,
 
Last edited:
I watched the Leaders Debate last night. Mary Lou McDonald lost some ground. She appeared confused regarding the Special Criminal Courts and a certain dreadful murder where a young man had nearly all his bones broken in the process. However, she got her presence at the Leaders Debate which she wished for and is not the first to make that mistake.

Leo Varadkar and Michéal Martin had to shine somewhat during the contest. Both were edgy but Martin looked the more composed. Varadkar let some of the occasion get to him.

At last, outside of a couple of more television appearances and radio interviews and perhaps another irrelevant opinion poll the campaign is nearing end, I hope. The Tipperary situation is another blight on the election landscape and I hope the election can take place on Saturday. Otherwise, we could have a situation where Tipperary decides the fate of the other 25 counties.

But, one thing is sure - This is the most interesting general election in years. I hear professional suited shirt and tie individuals saying they will support Sinn Féin on their Property Tax stance alone. The die-hard Fianna Fáil is dwindling by the month. Fine Gael is largely seen as a landlord supporting party. I am not saying any of these is my opinion, I'm merely commenting the first thing that comes to my mind (as usual).

I hope you all enjoy the election and its aftermath.
 
Last edited:
I was looking at the debate from the point of view of who moved the dial in there direction to me Leo did
The referees through all of the punches that landed,
 
Purple said:
The bickering between the two main centre left parties is giving the far left crazies in SF a free ride .
Click to expand...

I listened to Eoghan Harris on the radio earlier today and he was screaming for nobody to vote Sinn Féin. He sounded like his liver was on the point of busting if somebody came up with a Number 1 for SF.

I note my ol' buddy Purple referring to the far left "crazies."

The electorate are not stupid and we know how to vote (we've been doing it for years, you know). But, when somebody tries to shove their opinions down my throat, I say to myself "Hey Lep, Vote the informed way you always did."

Mr Harris and the Great Purple One have done more good for SF and the minor parties and they (Purple and Harris) don't even realise it.

I'm inflicting a moratorium on myself tomorrow. I'll read up, but I'm not contributing. I wish to extend some thanks to the people running this forum for keeping it clear of brainwashed party hacks who would disappear into the distance from Saturday Night after close of the general election.
 
Leper said:
I listened to Eoghan Harris on the radio earlier today and he was screaming for nobody to vote Sinn Féin. He sounded like his liver was on the point of busting if somebody came up with a Number 1 for SF.

I note my ol' buddy Purple referring to the far left "crazies."

The electorate are not stupid and we know how to vote (we've been doing it for years, you know). But, when somebody tries to shove their opinions down my throat, I say to myself "Hey Lep, Vote the informed way you always did."

Mr Harris and the Great Purple One have done more good for SF and the minor parties and they (Purple and Harris) don't even realise it.

I'm inflicting a moratorium on myself tomorrow. I'll read up, but I'm not contributing. I wish to extend some thanks to the people running this forum for keeping it clear of brainwashed party hacks who would disappear into the distance from Saturday Night after close of the general election.
Click to expand...
Lets say FF gets around 25% of the vote and rule out Going into Government With FG They have no choice but to carry a long spoon and sup with the so called crazies
Lets say FG get around 25% of the Vote and rule out Going into Government With FF they have on choice but to carry a long spoon and sup with the so called craizies
Both FF/FG seeing the will not go into Government together after getting around 50% of the vote Become the henchmen of the other 50% of TDs in other words the real TDs deciding policy will be away left of both FF?FG,
 
Leper said:
I listened to Eoghan Harris on the radio earlier today and he was screaming for nobody to vote Sinn Féin. He sounded like his liver was on the point of busting if somebody came up with a Number 1 for SF.

I note my ol' buddy Purple referring to the far left "crazies."

The electorate are not stupid and we know how to vote (we've been doing it for years, you know). But, when somebody tries to shove their opinions down my throat, I say to myself "Hey Lep, Vote the informed way you always did."

Mr Harris and the Great Purple One have done more good for SF and the minor parties and they (Purple and Harris) don't even realise it.

I'm inflicting a moratorium on myself tomorrow. I'll read up, but I'm not contributing. I wish to extend some thanks to the people running this forum for keeping it clear of brainwashed party hacks who would disappear into the distance from Saturday Night after close of the general election.
Click to expand...

Sounds like you are getting defensive because you make no attempt to refute anything Harris said. It sounds more like you were always going to vote SF and were just looking for a reason to do so.
Your reason to vote SF is emotional.
Make a positive case to vote for SF that can be rebutted.
But this is not a reason worthy of respect.

Frankly how you can be more upset about something Harris said than SF attempts to defend the right of their terrorist controllers to be judge jury and executioner of Paul Quinn is beyond me.
 
Prime time just finished debate with the smaller parties,
It now looks like the parties left of FF/FG are going to come together straight away after the election and not get pick off by FF or FG,

to be honest it no longer matters who finish up on top FF or FG the people driving the next Government were debating tonight what did posters think of the debate and there leaders and there policies,
How FF/FG supporters vote for the parties on view tonight will decide how much extra taxes they pay and how it gets spent,
 
Last edited:
odyssey06 said:
. . . . . .. It sounds more like you were always going to vote SF and were just looking for a reason to do so.
Your reason to vote SF is emotional.
Make a positive case to vote for SF that can be rebutted.
But this is not a reason worthy of respect.

Frankly how you can be more upset about something Harris said than SF attempts to defend the right of their terrorist controllers to be judge jury and executioner of Paul Quinn is beyond me.
Click to expand...

Hi Odyssey06 - You got that wrong. I am not voting SF. Furthermore, I never said I was going to vote SF.

. . . . . and for the record my vote will be used.
 
Leper said:
Hi Odyssey06 - You got that wrong. I am not voting SF. Furthermore, I never said I was going to vote SF.
. . . . . and for the record my vote will be used.
Click to expand...

Ah sorry, I misinterpreted your comment. Thanks for the clarification.
 
cremeegg said:
or perhaps

The only bad thing about an increased Sinn Fein vote is that it will manoeuvre FF and FG further to the left.
Click to expand...
The only voters having a say and outcome after this Election are the people who vote for the left of the FF/FG, puppet parties
The extreme left parties are grateful to FF/FG (there)is not a chance in hell of the left getting there policies through without allowing the main Governing party to be there Puppet,
The only power FF/FG voters have is which puppet turn it is,
[/QUOTE]
 
Last edited:
Alan Kinsella who tweets as @electionlit has updated his GE predictions
FF 43
FG 38
SF 33
GP 15
LAB 5
SD 6
S-PBP 4
IND 16

Looks a bit high for SD and perhaps Greens and FG and FF lower than thought. He does make the point that a lot of SF candidates will likely be elected on first count and their transfers are more likely to swing left than "back" to FF/FG as for the most part they don't have running mates.

I would have thought that FF will get closer to 50 and I don't see SF getting over 30, but who know. Just go out and vote.
 
dereko1969 said:
Alan Kinsella who tweets as @electionlit has updated his GE predictions
FF 43
FG 38
SF 33
GP 15
LAB 5
SD 6
S-PBP 4
IND 16

Looks a bit high for SD and perhaps Greens and FG and FF lower than thought. He does make the point that a lot of SF candidates will likely be elected on first count and their transfers are more likely to swing left than "back" to FF/FG as for the most part they don't have running mates.

I would have thought that FF will get closer to 50 and I don't see SF getting over 30, but who know. Just go out and vote.
Click to expand...
I suspect transfers will splinter all over the place not seen since 1948,
 
I think that SF going into Government now with FF or FG could destroy SF just like the PD's and Labour when they were the minority party.
It might be better for them to consolidate themselves as the main opposition and wait five years to govern as the main party.
At the risk of being called a shinnerbot or something derogatory ,I have to say, the media have been so obvious in their contempt for Sinn Fein. It was real off-putting. It actually showed contempt for the electorate. Eoghan Harris on newstalk was left rant for almost 20 minutes without a right to reply from SF and very little mention about Bertie Ahern and the PSNI making the same comments as Conor Murphy. Not to mention the special criminal court , very little mention that The U.N. , Amnesty International and the Irish civil liberties also asking for it to be reviewed.
 
At the start of the campaign my prediction was

FF 58
FG 43
SF 20
Green 10
Lab 7
SD 2
Others 20

Last edited: 25 Jan 2020
 
I think SF had a good campaign and FG a very bad campaign.

I think FF had a better campaign than is generally recognised. Labour struggled, and the Greens failed to take off. The Social Democrats prospered and may yet become the dominant centre left party that Labour used to be.

Here is my revised prediction.

FF 59 ( Ivan Yeats called 60 a long time ago)
FG 34
SF 31 ( not the second largest party just yet)
Green 9
Lab 5
SD 4 (time for Labour to call it a day and join SD, it will take them at least another election to realise this)
Other 18

As for a Govt 59 + 9+ 5 leaves MM just 7 short of a majority. He will surely find that among the independents.
 
Somewhere on the internet there is a prediction from a well known exert of SF getting 42 seats. The kind of thing that makes us all love experts. I can't find it now, maybe he thought better of it. I think it was written by Michael Marsh of TCD
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top