Who will form the next government?

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Purple said:
The bickering between the two main centre left parties is giving the far left crazies in SF a free ride .
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100% correct,and you haven't a clue how angry it makes me, and they are moving more to the left every day to meet them ,
I don't agree with the greens but they will be getting my no 1 vote,

FF attacking FG that gave SF there first rise in the polls, I think I already posted it on askaboutmoney ,
 
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The only good thing about an increased Sinn Fein vote is that it will manoeuvre FF and FG further to the left.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
But Leper is right, if FF/SF have the numbers the likes of O'Cuiv could oust Michael and invite the IRA into government
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that didnt work out too good for richard bruton and the young turks when they tried to oust Enda Kenny a decade ago, Enda Kenny easily out manouvered them. Also O Cuiv being old school traditional fianna fail would not be over enamored with the new look Sinn Fein on subjects like same sex marriage and abortion.
I dont trust the irish times poll anyway, they have never been that reliable , Sinn Fein did very badly in the local and european elections only 6 months ago, is that now forgotten !! There are alot of leftist canditates to the left of sinn fein and maybe the "green wave" actually materialises this time
 
joe sod said:
that didnt work out too good for richard bruton and the young turks when they tried to oust Enda Kenny a decade ago, Enda Kenny easily out manouvered them. Also O Cuiv being old school traditional fianna fail would not be over enamored with the new look Sinn Fein on subjects like same sex marriage and abortion.
I dont trust the irish times poll anyway, they have never been that reliable , Sinn Fein did very badly in the local and european elections only 6 months ago, is that now forgotten !! There are alot of leftist canditates to the left of sinn fein and maybe the "green wave" actually materialises this time
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I had come to a similar view. The polls showed a big swing from FG to SF. A strange shift which I put down to Charlie Flanagan's Black & Tans gaffe. I myself would have been tempted to tell a pollster SF just to spite Flanagan. But time and common sense will reverse that knee jerk reaction by election day. I think SF to get less than 24 seats is a good bet.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
I had come to a similar view. The polls showed a big swing from FG to SF. A strange shift which I put down to Charlie Flanagan's Black & Tans gaffe. I myself would have been tempted to tell a pollster SF just to spite Flanagan. But time and common sense will reverse that knee jerk reaction by election day. I think SF to get less than 24 seats is a good bet.
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FF attacking FG at the beginning of the campaign started the rise in the polls for SF ,
are people influenced by public opinion polls, the way Leo and Michael are accusing each other of part of there party having no problem going into Government with SF will slow down a shift back to FF/FG,
Both FF and FG have called to my door I have asked them the same Question seeing there is no chance of getting an over all majority,

You are looking for me to give you my no1 and no2 to your party, can you tell me who I should give my no3 vote to seeing you will need them to form a Government , they have no idea,
I then slyly ask them who I should not give my vote to no idea,
Since this General Election started FF/FG have acted as the most successful recruiting agent for SF ever and no sign of them stopping in the last full week end before polling ,pure madness out of FF/FG today,
 
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Deiseblue said:
The only good thing about an increased Sinn Fein vote is that it will manoeuvre FF and FG further to the left.
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or perhaps

The only bad thing about an increased Sinn Fein vote is that it will manoeuvre FF and FG further to the left.
 
joe sod said:
Also O Cuiv being old school traditional fianna fail would not be over enamored with the new look Sinn Fein on subjects like same sex marriage and abortion.
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Cuiv, Éamon O is on record as saying he has no issue with going into coalition with SF. In fact he got a dressing down from Michéal Martin about just this.
 
cremeegg said:
or perhaps

The only bad thing about an increased Sinn Fein vote is that it will manoeuvre FF and FG further to the left.
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As long as it moves FF and FG further to the left it doesn't really matter to me whether people reflect on such a move as being good or bad !
 
Micheal Martin has rejected coalition with SF on the basis of the party's paramilitary past. There is no escaping that.

Leo has rejected coalition with SF on the basis of their rejection of the special criminal court and the unacceptability of their economic policies. Plenty of wriggle room there.

SF could conceivably cannibalise FF votes, many FF people feel comfortable with SF.

No FG voter is ever going to vote for SF.

It may sound odd to say this in the 21st century, but my neighbour, a FF voter, will never vote for FG because they (the free state government) murdered his grandfather. And can you blame him. He and his extended family and his friends and neighbours amount to a sizeable number of votes. A FF/SF government could easily see him becoming a SF voter after the next election.

There are also people whose grandfathers were killed by anti-treaty forces, they will never vote SF.

All this makes SF less of a threat to FG in terms of stealing voters.

A FG/SF collation is not that far fetched.
 
FG will hold most of there seats on a Lower % of the vote, FF will not get as many seats as they think they will,
FG are now on a mission to hold as many existing seats as possible, there were at my door for the second time today,I said I was giving my no 1 vote to FG but not there currant front runner the only way I could get rid of them was to say I would switch my vote to the front runner,

Transfers are going to splinter in all directions we are going to see TDs elected with low first-preference vote because of this,
 
cremeegg said:
Micheal Martin has rejected coalition with SF on the basis of the party's paramilitary past. There is no escaping that.

Leo has rejected coalition with SF on the basis of their rejection of the special criminal court and the unacceptability of their economic policies. Plenty of wriggle room there.

SF could conceivably cannibalise FF votes, many FF people feel comfortable with SF.

No FG voter is ever going to vote for SF.

It may sound odd to say this in the 21st century, but my neighbour, a FF voter, will never vote for FG because they (the free state government) murdered his grandfather. And can you blame him. He and his extended family and his friends and neighbours amount to a sizeable number of votes. A FF/SF government could easily see him becoming a SF voter after the next election.

There are also people whose grandfathers were killed by anti-treaty forces, they will never vote SF.

All this makes SF less of a threat to FG in terms of stealing voters.

A FG/SF collation is not that far fetched.
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Sean Lemass liked to call Fianna Fail Party he helper Found ''A slightly Constitutional Party,
Up to about 30 year ago FG used to refer to FF by the above name all the time,
You must all be very young or josh very old,:D
 
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Well Mary Lou got what she wished for, she is on tomorrow's Great Debate. I wonder is she pleased. These debates rarely throw up a big winner but they can produce a car crash moment occasionally. I would say she wishes she was left out - less risky and get a big sympathy vote, after all they are ahead of FG in the polls.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Well Mary Lou got what she wished for, she is on tomorrow's Great Debate. I wonder is she pleased. These debates rarely throw up a big winner but they can produce a car crash moment occasionally. I would say she wishes she was left out - less risky and get a big sympathy vote, after all they are ahead of FG in the polls.
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How long before she mentions "tweedle dum tweedle dee"? :)
 
Purple said:
I told the SF canvassers that I'd give them my vote... they know where I live!
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You are quite safe ,they never touch the people who increased there vote , The late Ian Paisley was there best recruiting agent ever,:confused: sad to say,
 
We could be waiting a while for the next government to be formed, if the numbers are very tight and the 5 seater in Tipperary doesn't vote until end of the month due to the death of one of the candidates.
 
Paddy the Irishman loves the underdog. Sinn Féin is the underdog here. RTE kept SF out of the main leader debate tonight. Yesterday, they decided to leave SF in. Leo and Michéal are driving themselves the wrong way through a one way street. Mary Lou has acquitted herself well on television. Tonight, she will have to keep her efforts up. I'm not sure that tonight's debate will suit her. Time will tell.

In hurling, we have a saying "Never change a winning team" - Things can't get better for Mary Lou and if she scores an own goal tonight, she'll set her party back. I am not convinced that she really wanted to participate in this debate tonight (my opinion) and may have been caught off guard by RTE.
 
I Don't think SF will get as many votes as polls are saying, people are trying to send a message to FF?FG/LAB through the Opinion polls ,I don't expect them to follow through at the Ballot Box, If we get more of the same in the future it will move to the Ballot Box,
FF/FG/LAB are in last chance saloon,
 
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