Who will form the next government? - The results

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A Grand Coalition is possible. Mr Varadkar is playing hard-to-get while Mr Martin will hop into the political bed of anybody who'll allow him to be Taoiseach.

I believe Mary Lou was caught on the hop and never believed she was in line head up the next government. I'm also wondering if she wants to head up the next government. When you are the top, there is only one way you can go.

I ain't sure that Mr Varadkar and Mr Martin will be leading Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil into the near future either. A Grand Coalition would be easier on FG supporters if Mr Varadkar was sacked.
Who is there in FF to replace Mr Martin? Biffo Jr.?!
 
I suppose I should have asked whether a grand coalition is likely.

The last arrangement wasn’t exactly a coalition but rather a supply and confidence agreement, which backfired on Fianna Fáil.

Most junior partners in Government fare badly.
 
No, that's the potential tax base.
The tax base is the proportion of that potential base which is actually taxed.
If you only tax part of it, or tax part of it far more heavily than most other parts, then you have a narrow tax base.

I respectfully disagree. Inherent in your view is a failure to understand the nature of tax and taxation.
In political discourse, what you have said is correct. Its part of the stick that politicians use to beat up on each other to point out the disproportionate disadvantages, real or perceived, that some sectors of society and the economy have to endure while others dont.

Outside of political discourse, we are all taxpayers. The extent of which one part of the tax base is taxed over another will determine if the tax base broadens or narrows.
The who gets taxed, by how much, and in what manner, is just the circus that determines the perceptions of an equitable system or not.
I may think that an increase of tax on my income is unfair, but a tax on the value of my property is fair. Either way, it digs deeper into my disposable income. It is taxing the same person more tax.

From a cold economic viewpoint, it is the impact of imposing, or not, particular tax categories, on given levels of income and assets that determines if the tax base broadens or narrows.
The who pays what, when and by how much is political debate about equity and fairness.
Its important to separate the two to understand the concept.
 
You are factually incorrect. This isn't a matter of your opinion or my opinion.
 
You are factually incorrect. This isn't a matter of your opinion or my opinion.

We will agree to disagree so?

The formation of the next government is driving alot of spin in the media.

Outside of this spin, ive tried to figure out a potential line up. It just doesn't seem possible without 2 of the 3 main parties agreeing to enter coalition with other small parties.
 
I respectfully disagree. Inherent in your view is a failure to understand the nature of tax and taxation.
In political discourse, what you have said is correct. Its part of the stick that politicians use to beat up on each other to point out the disproportionate disadvantages, real or perceived, that some sectors of society and the economy have to endure while others dont.

Outside of political discourse, we are all taxpayers. The extent of which one part of the tax base is taxed over another will determine if the tax base broadens or narrows.
The who gets taxed, by how much, and in what manner, is just the circus that determines the perceptions of an equitable system or not.
I may think that an increase of tax on my income is unfair, but a tax on the value of my property is fair. Either way, it digs deeper into my disposable income. It is taxing the same person more tax.

From a cold economic viewpoint, it is the impact of imposing, or not, particular tax categories, on given levels of income and assets that determines if the tax base broadens or narrows.
The who pays what, when and by how much is political debate about equity and fairness.
Its important to separate the two to understand the concept.

Its fine to respectfully disagree but you don't then accuse someone of having failing to understand the nature of tax and taxation. Every single thread seems to go down a complete rabbit hole....

For the avoidance of doubt and for the benefit of discussions here and in relation to the discussions will hear in the media, the tax base is where we get our tax revenues from. I don't care what the dictionary or what Investopedia say. That is what we are talking about.

When we say we have a narrow tax base, we are saying that a large % of our tax revenues come from corporation tax and income tax. And in that corporate tax bracket, most of our corporate tax comes from a small number of big companies. When we look at income tax, the majority of our taxes come from small number of earners and 50% pay of the earners pay almost 97% of income tax while the other 50% pay 3%. That is a narrow tax base. So if a small number of companies stop making profits or a small number our few high earners decide to leave the country, our tax revenues will take a huge hit.
 
Is a grand coalition possible?
For sure. A FF/FG/Green government is, in my view, the least worst option now and it has shortened in the betting from 14/1 to 5/1 second favourite. Martin wants to be Taoiseach, Leo want to stay FG leader and they only have to promise the Greens the world (making Ryan the Minister for Saving the Planet). If FF and FG believe that a rabble Left government will destroy the country in kissing time then they must step up.
 
the tax base is where we get our tax revenues from.

Yes, have I suggested otherwise?

I don't care what the dictionary or what Investopedia say

Thats part of the problem. Not caring what it actually means to broaden the tax base doesn't help.
You have listed a series of % of % to demonstrate how the tax base is too narrow. Can you provide one succinct amendment to the tax system that would demonstrate how it would broaden, as distinct from why you think it would be more equitable?
 
Yes, have I suggested otherwise?



Thats part of the problem. Not caring what it actually means to broaden the tax base doesn't help.
You have listed a series of % of % to demonstrate how the tax base is too narrow. Can you provide one succinct amendment to the tax system that would demonstrate how it would broaden, as distinct from why you think it would be more equitable?

You are not dragging me into your endless discussions about some pedantic point. I don't even understand what you are asking for and to be honest I don't think you do either. Leave it to Purple and Firefly. They seem to be only two with the patience.
 
A FF/FG/Green government is, in my view, the least worst option now

I agree with you, but it is clear to me that most people voted for a change of the guard. SF won this election on votes and had they had more candidates may have gotten a lot closer to an overall majority, IMO.

I therefore think a lot of people would be outraged should FF & FG form a coalition in order to prevent SF from entering government.

I still have my doubts that SF actually want to enter government anyway and I think they know deep down that they'll be soon caught out. A FF & FG coalition would offer them a great excuse to stay in opposition, all the while moaning and growing their base with populist nonsense.

Of course, if SF do get off the ditch and grab a hurley then the should be prepared to start delivering on their promises. Of course, yet again, they have another very convenient excuse in the near future with the Brexit negotiations should they need to blame someone else for their shortcomings..
 
For sure. A FF/FG/Green government is, in my view, the least worst option now and it has shortened in the betting from 14/1 to 5/1 second favourite. Martin wants to be Taoiseach, Leo want to stay FG leader and they only have to promise the Greens the world (making Ryan the Minister for Saving the Planet). If FF and FG believe that a rabble Left government will destroy the country in kissing time then they must step up.

I just cant see it. Confidence and supply damaged FF. A coalition would make them extinct. I think FG are happy to go into opposition and I don't blame them.
 
You are not dragging me into your endless discussions about some pedantic point. I don't even understand what you are asking for and to be honest I don't think you do either. Leave it to Purple and Firefly. They seem to be only two with the patience.

Nah, I've had enough too Sunny
 
I think FG are happy to go into opposition and I don't blame them.

FG just bought a big bag of popcorn ;)

“That means people are saying to us that Fine Gael should go into opposition and we’re absolutely willing to do that.”

 
It's likely a move that would give them best chance of a large majority next time round... And they mightn't have to wait too long for that!
I think there will be another election within 6 months and the Shinners will get over 50 seats. Hopefully they won't burn down the Reichstag after that.
 
Yes it can mean that, but its a somewhat incomplete understanding of the concept.
I take it we all agree that the tax base is all tax revenue streams? Income tax, VAT, USC, Corporation tax, property tax, motor tax, etc...etc...?
So invariably, we all pay taxes in some form or another. So getting more people to pay tax when everybody already pays tax is somewhat a contradiction.
Broadening the tax base is increasing, decreasing, eliminating, or introducing new tax codes that generate greater revenue streams than what existed before.
If tax codes are altered (increased, decreased, eliminated or new ones introduced) that result in lower revenues then the tax base is narrowed.
No. Broadening the tax base has a very simple definition. It's expanding the number of people paying tax. There is a very clear distinction between that and increasing tax revenue.
 
There is certainly a lot of posturing without any actual substance with regard the facts.

The figures simply dont add up. The SF/Green/SD/Lab/PBP/Ind coalition simply wont work.
There isnt the numbers for S & C

Either another election, or 2 out of 3 need to enter coalition.
Given the public stance that is not likely, let alone any of three trying to convince their support base.
 
I think there will be another election within 6 months and the Shinners will get over 50 seats.

Or they could lose seats. David Cullinane didn't do the party any favours and the electorate might feel that SF is not quite ready after all.
 
Or they could lose seats. David Cullinane didn't do the party any favours and the electorate might feel that SF is not quite ready after all.
They knew what they were voting for before him mask slipped and they’ll vote for it again
 
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