Who will form the next government? - The results

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Purple

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For me the big story of this election is the death of Labour. They will have a rump of a few old timers but that’s it. Sad it see it happen to the oldest party in the country.

The Shinners would do best to stay out of power this time as reality wont suit their ideologically driven fanciful “just tax the rich and we’ll all be fine” policies. The danger for them is that they have sucked up votes from the independents and those votes will just float away by the next election.
 
At the moment I think it's looking like FF/SF.

If they can agree on forming a government, I do hope SF have the decency to accept the mandate of the people and take health & housing and let's see how they get on!
 
Laughahalla said:
INM Bias and Media Bias in general helped SF. People didn't like being told who to vote for.
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The perception that FF were in a coalition with FG helped SF. An FF/SF government is the most likely outcome. If they had run more candidates Mary Lou would be the next Taoiseach
 
The SF swing and the failure of FF to capitalise on the drop in support for FG is the big story.
 
SF has the higest percentage of the popular vote. Wow.
FF will have more seats.
Argument to be made for sharing role of Taoiseach between the two.
 
Ruth Coppinger gone now aswell a surprising casualty of the Sinn Fein surge
 
Big story-1: Sinn Fein, I was listening to results in the car yesterday evening and some of them were wow moments. It's going to be interesting to see if they maintain that long term, especially as many of their new TDs had lost council elections over the summer. How much of it was a vote for something different and a brand rather then for individual candidates?. Can they keep their discipline, especially when they start putting 2nd candidates in to seats where one person romped home?. they failed miserably at council level to do so, infighting all over the country

2: FG- Leo's main political achievement will be to move FG to being the 3rd party in the state. He is detested outside of Dublin- how long before Coveny makes a move there?

3: FF- threading water- some new candidates, a 22 yr old in Cork is one example but Bertie's legacy prevails, they need to move to the next generation and fast but if Martin becomes Taoiseach it may not help long term

4: Labour- whats the point.? Interesting to see what Alan Kelly does when he surely becomes the next Leader. They'd be better of staying in opposition with him

5: Greens- party mostly of the Pale. Didn't really get traction out the country and that will hold them back

6: Soc Dems- another success story
 
From my viewpoint a FF/FG/Green coalition may be the least worst option to prevent a rabble Left government. The Greens would provide some political cover for the Old Guard but also would provide a comfortable/stable majority of seats in the Dáil and such a coalition would represent more than 50% of the popular vote, if only just.
 
FF/FG can't happen. People already think they are the same. If they go into Government together, they might as well merge the parties. Not sure that would necessarily be a bad thing. If people are willing to move on from SF's past, can't imagine many people care about the Civil War.
 
If FF\FG go into government now, and there's a global recession while they are in power and holding the baby, it will mean SF as by far the largest party at next election maybe even close to majority.
 
I agree, FF/FG Can't happen. If they form a coalition then one of the two will not exist after the next election.
 
Maybe FF & FG will put the country first and not permit a rabble Left government. A lot can change in 5 years. They may need to merge anyway to combat SF in a united Ireland general election
 
The Shinners will have to go into government. SF/FF is the most likely option. FF will be gone within a decade if they do.
 
michaelm said:
Maybe FF & FG will put the country first and not permit a rabble Left government. A lot can change in 5 years. They may need to merge anyway to combat SF in a united Ireland general election
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FF put the country first and look at what happened to them?
The Greens did the same before and they were wiped out.

Thee closer to reality to have to stand the less the electorate will like you.
 
Part of me actually hopes SF actually gets into power just so people can actually see how they change like they do in the North. I just don't see how though. The price that FF will have to pay could be huge. I presume SF will demand finance. Can FF go into Government with SF Finance Minister and a slim majority? We will be voting again within months......
 
How will the Sinn Fein hardliners like Dessie Ellis cope with the discipline of government and having to obey a whip. I dont think alot of the Sinn fein tds really want to be in government, they are afterall anti establishment, now they will be the establishment. Alot of the Sinn Fein new TDs were elected like the brexit party in the european parliament on a populist wave
 
Sunny said:
Part of me actually hopes SF actually gets into power just so people can actually see how they change like they do in the North. I just don't see how though. The price that FF will have to pay could be huge. I presume SF will demand finance. Can FF go into Government with SF Finance Minister and a slim majority? We will be voting again within months......
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Which could well suit SF. Next time they'll have 2 in each constituency.

Give them Housing and Health, keep them away from Justice. Lets see the wind taken out of them when they take those 2 on!
Finance for either party as after all, it's FF we're talking about here!
 
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