Time to buy in

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Daddy Ireland said:
Good luck everyone:

www.theguardian.com

Markets expected to fall further as coronavirus hits China's economy

Manufacturing production levels in world’s second largest economy dropped to record lows in February
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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I’ve always thought that allowing media hysteria to dictate my investment strategy would be a novel approach.

Having said that, I think I’ll stick with the current plan which is to add as much as I can to my global equity portfolio every month, aggressively pay down debt, and tune out the media noise.
 
News or media noise is what drives the markets. Chinese economy is big news and really drives the markets especially when it's contracting. 24 provinces still closed in China which drive 80% of it's GDP. By the way, South Korea has just closed its Hyundai factory production in South Korea after worker tests positive. Yes China will get going again and the world will get going again. A .50% reduction on US interest rates loom on Monday to help offset this Chinese news. If US cannot contain the virus well I cannot but see Roubini's prediction coming to pass and we will see Dow at 20,000.
 
As you said above, China and the world will get going again and things will recover. This is what always happens.

IMO the only reason that someone would go to cash with the intention of buying back in at a lower price is to make a few quick pounds on the difference. Granted maybe your financial plan requires you to take these risks for higher returns to meet your needs in the future.

If not, your overall investment strategy needs to be reviewed as you shouldn’t have to do it this way.
 
FINAL POST ON THREAD:

Fergal19. My investment strategy was not to jump out and jump back in quickly. I luckily saw this coming. Yes I have saved 10k by jumping out when I did. Near retirement and need to sleep easy at night with our retirement pots. Glad to be out as believe Roubini's outlook will come to pass. I'll stay in cash as long as this scary virus is about the world. Only when I think things look brighter will I re-enter.
 
As I write the Dow Futures are showing green. However as news emerges today this could easily change. Late on Friday there were some buybacks about 45 minutes before the markets closed.
I am still tracking a couple of shares and will buy when I feel my price is right. Like Daddy Ireland I won't get my timing right but I will know that I am buying at much lower prices than were available last Friday week.
I will then sit back and take the dividends. If the markets return to pre Corona levels I may take some profits and sell again or I may not.
I am of the age where I can not hold long term, so I trade differently. Short to medium.

(Incidentally, I also stocked up on some pasta and rice during the week and avoided the crowds that are queing outside the supermarkets this morning) ;)
 
I think that’s a very sensible strategy and one that I follow for the most part with a longer time horizon. Even if you’re closer to retirement, you can still stay long for the most part and use dividends/disposals to top up your pension. It’s whatever you’re comfortable with that matters.

And so, let me get this right ..... you’ve started the panic buying this morning? I better go now and stock up
 
Daddy Ireland said:
FINAL POST ON THREAD:

Fergal19. My investment strategy was not to jump out and jump back in quickly. I luckily saw this coming. Yes I have saved 10k by jumping out when I did. Near retirement and need to sleep easy at night with our retirement pots. Glad to be out as believe Roubini's outlook will come to pass. I'll stay in cash as long as this scary virus is about the world. Only when I think things look brighter will I re-enter.
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What will be your tax liability on any gains you made? Will that tax hit not negate any saving on the price drop.
 
Guys

As far as I know most of us are long term buy and hold investors. Some believe that they can identify tops and bottoms.

But I don't see any point in posting about today's rise or fall. It's just noise in the thread and distracts from the underlying discussion.

Brendan
 
I won't retire for nearly 30 years so this is all just noise, unless you are near to retirement just ignore and carry on.

I am going to do an AVC soon for the 2019 tax year and will be glad to be buying on a small downturn but in the context of 30 more years of market ups and downs it really is irrelevant.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
As far as I know most of us are long term buy and hold investors. Some believe that they can identify tops and bottoms.

But I don't see any point in posting about today's rise or fall. It's just noise in the thread and distracts from the underlying discussion.
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Did you not have a post some time back about shorting bitcoin. If I remember correctly your exit price was around $3000. How is this different from trying to identify tops and bottoms?

There was also this famous Youtube where you suggested that we all fill our shoes with bank shares. That YouTube was broadcast in 2008. That was 12 years ago. Would being a long term investor in bank shares made someone money between 2008 and today? Would it have made someone between 2006 and today?

Was your RTE interview suggestion to "fill our shoes" also just noise at that point in time.

www.youtube.com

Brendan Burgess, askaboutmoney.com on banks and shares, RTE News, 16 Sep 2008

"Irish banks are very well regulated, Irish banks are very sound..... we're going to look back in a few times at the state of Irish banks [and ask] how did w...
www.youtube.com www.youtube.com
 
Brendan Burgess said:
As far as I know most of us are long term buy and hold investors. Some believe that they can identify tops and bottoms.

But I don't see any point in posting about today's rise or fall. It's just noise in the thread and distracts from the underlying discussion.
Click to expand...

The title of the post is Time to Buy In. Why should those of us who like to trade short term be excluded from the discussion? It is your site Brendan and you can do what you like but I for one like to read and understand how other people trade.
I found it fascinating to see one particular Irish share that is quoted on the LSE dip to a price of £25.85 at one point on Friday....then on opening this morning went as high as £27.29 and is already down to £26 in the space of a few hours. You can bet that many people are making money on the intra day ups and downs of these shares.
 
Bronco Lane said:
Did you not have a post some time back about shorting bitcoin. If I remember correctly your exit price was around $3000. How is this different from trying to identify tops and bottoms?
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Hi Bronco

It's very different.

The stock market is about shares in companies which have earnings. It's very difficult to value them. But they have some value.

Bitcoin is not a share. It has no earnings. It has no value. If people are prepared to buy it from me for $14,000 , I was prepared to sell it to them.

Brendan
 
Bronco Lane said:
There was also this famous Youtube where you suggested that we all fill our shoes with bank shares
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Did you listen to it? I said "bank and other shares" . The Irish stock market is up quite a bit since 2008.

But it was a mistake to answer the question. I was asked to explain the bank guarantee and should it be increased from €20k. That bit is always omitted by the people quoting it. I said that Irish banks were regulated but not guaranteed and while I didn't expect them to fail, they should be allowed to fail. And the guarantee should not be increased beyond €20k.

You will see the full context of what I said about investing and property in this thread

Key Post - What Brendan Burgess has actually said about property, prices and borrowing

Many people are claiming that I am a “Vested Interest” who cheered on the property bubble. Most of the quotes are selective and out of context. They ignore the frequent comments I have made about house prices falling. This very long thread is an effort to set the record straight. In...
www.askaboutmoney.com

I have learnt from that mistake. With the wisdom of hindsight, I would now say "That is a much more complicated issue and we would need a full programme to discuss it." I have always suggested holding a diversified portfolio of shares for the long term and fully acknowledged that one or two of them would go to zero.

Brendan
 
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SlugBreath said:
Why should those of us who like to trade short term be excluded from the discussion?
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Hi SlugBreath

This thread is about "Time to Buy In" which really is about long term investing.

Most people understand that short-term trading is almost guaranteed to be loss making. But if you think that the current turmoil makes it worth discussing, feel free to start a separate thread on it.

Brendan
 
SlugBreath said:
The title of the post is Time to Buy In. Why should those of us who like to trade short term be excluded from the discussion? It is your site Brendan and you can do what you like but I for one like to read and understand how other people trade.
I found it fascinating to see one particular Irish share that is quoted on the LSE dip to a price of £25.85 at one point on Friday....then on opening this morning went as high as £27.29 and is already down to £26 in the space of a few hours. You can bet that many people are making money on the intra day ups and downs of these shares.
Click to expand...

Whats the point in talking about whether the stock market will rise or fall when no one knows ? It would be an interesting conversation if you could learn something to help future predict stock market movements but it would just be a case of one person saying " stock markets are going to drop " versus some other people saying " lets buy the dip" , it is what it is , all the news is in the public domain . Some people are happy selling last week , some are happy buying today , both think they are getting value , its a zero sum game and there is no real right or wrong. Speculation on short term movements is pointless .

I still think Brendan is wrong about Bitcoin but he can't see the errors in his ways ;) eventually he will realise he is wrong and Bitcoin or anything else is always worth whatever the market is willing to pay for it.
 
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