The screw is being turned on the DUP

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WolfeTone

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For if we too do nothing on the border it only proves it was all a bogus issue.
You mean if we do nothing, and the UK does nothing, and we carry on regardless implementing the same rules and regulations as before 31 Oct?

Isnt that the backstop, through the back door?
 

Duke of Marmalade

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You mean if we do nothing, and the UK does nothing, and we carry on regardless implementing the same rules and regulations as before 31 Oct?

Isnt that the backstop, through the back door?
UK does nothing in respect of the Irish border
Yes we would probably like that.
The EU would hate it. It would be the UK having its cake and eating it? What about the 39bn? What about the ECJ? But most important of all what about all the concessions the EU expect to prise out of the UK in subsequent FTA talks, including some continuing contributions to the EU budget?
Theobold said:
Without wanting to go around in circles. It appears that Brexit on the island of Ireland will be a different, separate beast, to Brexit on the island of Britain.
I don't know about circles but I feel I am slipping once more into a parallel universe where I haven't a clue what Theobold is on about.
 

WolfeTone

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I don't know about circles but I feel I am slipping once more into a parallel universe where I haven't a clue what Theobold is on about.
Oh dear, we are descending into attacking the man instead of attacking the ball. Not a good sign.
Everything I have pointed out holds.

DUP claim NI cannot be treated separately from rest of UK. It cannot diverge from UK law after Brexit.
- control of borders
- end FoM
- make own rules and regulations for trade.

But in practice, it is the UK gov, the Brexiteers and the DUP who are heralding a divergence from Brexit in NI

- no border controls
- keep same trade rules and regulations
(this is not Brexit)

The counter argument goes something like "thats just for Ireland. Because the UK is free and independent, it can apply whatever rules it likes to whatever country it likes."
True.
And as stated previously, the historical, cultural and economic ties between Britain and France are as every bit strong as between Ireland and Britain, so not beyond reason the UK applying same for French citizens, goods and services, in and out of UK either?
Or can France expect the full hard Brexit treatment?

Ditto the Germans and Italians, the Spanish, and the Swedes, Belgians, Dutch and Portuguese?

Where will it all end? Before you know it, we will be back to where we are right now.
 

Duke of Marmalade

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Oh dear, we are descending into attacking the man instead of attacking the ball. Not a good sign.
Everything I have pointed out holds.

DUP claim NI cannot be treated separately from rest of UK. It cannot diverge from UK law after Brexit.
- control of borders
- end FoM
- make own rules and regulations for trade.

But in practice, it is the UK gov, the Brexiteers and the DUP who are heralding a divergence from Brexit in NI

- no border controls
- keep same trade rules and regulations
(this is not Brexit)

The counter argument goes something like "thats just for Ireland. Because the UK is free and independent, it can apply whatever rules it likes to whatever country it likes."
True.
And as stated previously, the historical, cultural and economic ties between Britain and France are as every bit strong as between Ireland and Britain, so not beyond reason the UK applying same for French citizens, goods and services, in and out of UK either?
Or can France expect the full hard Brexit treatment?

Ditto the Germans and Italians, the Spanish, and the Swedes, Belgians, Dutch and Portuguese?

Where will it all end? Before you know it, we will be back to where we are right now.
I am sure there are plenty of circles in that explanation but if your main point is that you have the DUP on a “gotcha” you haven’t. The DUP have stated that they are against a hard border in Ireland but even more against a sea border between them and the rest of the UK. They have no problem with Dundalk being treated differently from Calais, doesn’t weaken the United Kingdom.
 

Early Riser

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So, Johnson is in full election mode. I suspect the game plan is to talk "tough" (ie, bombastic hot air) on Brexit for the next few weeks and then face an election (called or facilitated by himself) where he will outflank the Brexit Party, aim for an overall Tory majority and ditch the DUP. Then it will be back to some version of the NI only backstop - perhaps rephrased and slightly modified to make it seem like compromise (or "victory").

The rhetoric about reneging on the "divorce bill", etc is rubbish and an election ploy red meat for the rabid Brexiter Daily Mail/Expressers. Approximately 50% of the UKs trade is with the EU who have made it clear that there will be no trade deal without this being settled.
 

Sunny

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Wow! This was an eye opener, especially the bit about John Hume. I had to check this in Wikipedia and everything is as you say. EH is a deplorable egotist who wallows in thinking he is a supreme intellect by taking the contrarian view. Despite having been proven spectacularly wrong on many occasions. The mystery is that he has achieved credibility with the likes of Aherne, Bruton etc.
Anyway, my point was that I think Bojo will keep his word on the border. Not because he is an honourable man, he is only a shade behind EH in deplorability. But because it is such an easy tactic to follow. He can easily outstay Ireland/EU with this tactic. For if we too do nothing on the border it only proves it was all a bogus issue. The EU cannot let that happen.
But Borris has to do something with the border. He can't just ignore it. It was fine when Ireland and Britain were bound by the immigration rules but that is not the case anymore. He has already committed to no checks on the border. He has committed that the Common Travel Area will still apply so where is he going to do the immigration checks for EU citizens who are entitled to go and work in Ireland but are not entitled to work in the North?? Is he saying that Dublin has to set up checks to stop Polish and Romanian people entering the UK from the South. Not going to happen. So how exactly does the UK have control of their border which is what they are all claiming Brexit will deliver. There is only option then. Let these people enter NI but stop them entering the rest of UK through border checks between Northern Ireland and the Mainland. Just like despite the Common Travel Area, Irish people will face increased border checks going to the UK.

With trade, is Boris really going to abandon Northern
So, Johnson is in full election mode. I suspect the game plan is to talk "tough" (ie, bombastic hot air) on Brexit for the next few weeks and then face an election (called or facilitated by himself) where he will outflank the Brexit Party, aim for an overall Tory majority and ditch the DUP. Then it will be back to some version of the NI only backstop - perhaps rephrased and slightly modified to make it seem like compromise (or "victory").

The rhetoric about reneging on the "divorce bill", etc is rubbish and an election ploy red meat for the rabid Brexiter Daily Mail/Expressers. Approximately 50% of the UKs trade is with the EU who have made it clear that there will be no trade deal without this being settled.
They don't care about EU trade. The US are going to buy all the pork pies and toilet seats......
 

WolfeTone

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They have no problem with Dundalk being treated differently from Calais,
Can we clarify one thing? When talking of being "treated differently" we are talking about different rules and regulations being set.
To treat Dundalk differently to Calais, the UK will have different rules and regulations applicable to Dundalk as it will to Calais.
This is divergence.
 

Duke of Marmalade

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Sunny yes Britain can't maintain a do nothing stance in Ireland for ever. My point is they have much more time on their hands than Ireland/EU. The UK can do nothing for years. The EU will be forced to move almost immediately else the UK will have its cake and eat it. Leo will be in a very sticky situation. Does he put up physical barriers to defend the Single Market? Or does he after all have alternative solutions like trusted trader? Boris is in a very good position to call the backstop bluff.
 
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Early Riser

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Does he put up physical barriers to defend the Single Market?
In the event of No Deal there will indoubtedly have to be some sort of regulatory and tarriff checks in Ireland to protect the integrity of the Single Market. How long can British business survive without a trade deal with the EU - by far its biggest market (46% if British exports)?
 

Sunny

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Boris is in a very good position to call the backstop bluff.
Except he is not is he? He is so fixated on the backstop that he is beginning to think he can just away on the 31st October, not pay the divorce bill and then start trade deal negotiations. (and he needs a trade deal with the EU). It's a delusion.

A hard Brexit is going to impact Ireland and the EU but the UK seems to think that because they buy a lot of German cars, that Europe need them much more than the UK needs them. As I say, it is delusional...…. Europe and Ireland will find a solution that works for their relationship because they are being forced to find a solution. And they will.
The difference is that the UK think they can vote for Brexit but then expect Ireland and the EU to do all the work to make it work for them. Good luck Boris. Still not one alternative solution to the backstop. Not one since all they hype of last week. Did they just start working on it last week or something??
 

EmmDee

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Why are we all looking for logical well thought long term thinking from what is being said by Boris (and others) at the moment. That isn't what they are doing. They are muddying the waters, giving responses which they hope will either distract from a fundamental issue or throwing out sound bites that will play well in certain quarters - probably with a view to winning an election. They won't feel bound by any of these comments nor will they be able to keep most of them. They are purely designed to get them through the next few weeks. They (rightly) assume they will never be held to them - or they will be able to wrangle out of them using another slogan

So when they say "we won't put up a border", they are just avoiding having to answer the difficult question. And doing so in a way that can be a slogan or meaningless word salad to avoid hard truths. Any trade deal signed - doesn't matter with who - assumes you have control over your borders. Otherwise what's the point... if I give you preferential access to my markets in exchange for reciprocal access, but I don't control my borders so everyone has access really, then why would you bother.

So of course they will have to have controls. But their assumption is that they can deal with that when they get there. For the moment just give a nonsense answer that gets you through the next few weeks, win an election and then worry about it. The concern is that if people eventually see through it, there could be an almighty backlash.

But parsing the statements and asking what they mean - or what is their long term strategy - is a fruitless exercise I think
 

cremeegg

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Sunny yes Britain can't maintain a do nothing stance in Ireland for ever. My point is they have much more time on their hands than Ireland/EU.
I dont see why you say this.

On Nov 1st Leo can set up a working group to investigate how to administer the border now that the UK is a third country. I would imagine that would take months, if not years.

What pressure would we be under.

Irish goods exports to NI, no problem for us.
NI or other UK citizens crossing south. No problem for us.
Anyone at all crossing North. No problem for us.

Non EU citizens crossing south. OK something we would wish to regulate, but hardly an urgent matter. People crossing the border illegally is of course illegal. People driving in excess of the speed limit is also illegal. We do not monitor every road 24/7 to prevent illegal speeding.

Goods entering the EU without proper regulatory checks. This is the big issue. There are many ways that this could responded to without border guards. For example if Tesco are found to be selling illegally imported goods they can be fined. Not as effective a seal as a hard border, but an adequate initial response. Our EU partners would obviously be putting pressure on us to act but they have indicated that they understand how difficult a hard border would be for us.

The UK on the other hand if they wish to operate under WTO rules must adopt the same procedures for all trading partners. If they allow Irish beef in they must allow Argentine beef in. And the Argentine (just as an example, the logic applies to every third country) government have every incentive to push them on this from the start.

It seems to me that the UK will be the one under pressure to resolve it approach to its borders.
 

Firefly

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I think the EU has been too patient with the UK to be honest. The UK wants to leave and an agreement was signed. Either honour it or all bets are off.
" **** or get off the pot " comes to mind. There will be some short-term issues for us but given how little we now trade with the UK it will be manageable in the medium term. And wouldn't it be ironic if some of that 39bn made its way in reliefs to us!

The practical solution IMO would be NI to remain in the EU / bound by EU rules & regulations until these so-call alternative arrangements can be implemented. It's not like the EU wants to hang on to NI - FAR from it - the EU just wants to be done with the whole thing. The major risk with this for me is that it might whip up the whole united Ireland nonesense and then I really would consider selling the house.
 

Duke of Marmalade

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I dont see why you say this.

On Nov 1st Leo can set up a working group to investigate how to administer the border now that the UK is a third country. I would imagine that would take months, if not years.

What pressure would we be under.

Irish goods exports to NI, no problem for us.
NI or other UK citizens crossing south. No problem for us.
Anyone at all crossing North. No problem for us.
Yes, Ireland would love to keep going as if nothing has changed. The pressure will come from the EU. It is not so much to protect its Single Market, that would take some time to come under any significant threat given the UK is already compliant. But, as Tusk said, the EU will not make No Deal easy. This is a point of principle, a principle stated by Barnier at the very beginning - the UK cannot be better off outside the bloc than in it. It is not revenge (although it has the same effect) it is a warning to other potential exiteers.
So on the Ireland backstop "Call my Bluff" the UK has the stronger hand IMHO. It will see an almost immediate confrontation between Ireland and the EU 26, or it will see that after all Ireland can manage a border without a descent into chaos.
 

cremeegg

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Yes, Ireland would love to keep going as if nothing has changed. The pressure will come from the EU. It is not so much to protect its Single Market, that would take some time to come under any significant threat given the UK is already compliant. But, as Tusk said, the EU will not make No Deal easy. This is a point of principle, a principle stated by Barnier at the very beginning - the UK cannot be better off outside the bloc than in it. It is not revenge (although it has the same effect) it is a warning to other potential exiteers.
This seems perfectly reasonable.

The volume of goods and people that go over the Irish border are minuscule in comparison with the volumes that go across the Narrow Sea.

And the UK MUST find a way to keep that crossing open. That will be come critical for the UK in days not weeks.

The Dover Calais rules will become the Irish Border rules. But we can implement them in Irish time.
 

Purple

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This is a very informative piece about the GFA, Brexit and the ECHR.
The main aim of the DUP, as I see it, is to unpick the GFA. They can only do that with the UK out of the ECJ and not bound by the ECHR.
 
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cremeegg

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This is a very informative piece about the GFA, Brexit and the ECHR.
The main aim of the DUP, as I see it, is to unpick the GFA. They can only do that with the UK out of the ECJ and not bound by the ECHR.
I think you meant to include a link ?
 

WolfeTone

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So when they say "we won't put up a border", they are just avoiding having to answer the difficult question.
Totally agree. One question I would like put Boris is, if there is no need for border checks on the island of Ireland, then surely there is no need for border checks on the island of Britain?
 
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