The Gold thread

I've put in sell orders on all my energy related shares, mining related shares and gold related shares (held in separate funds). Really wish I hadn't waited until January to do so. Just holding onto physical gold and cash.

Perhaps too hasty but the breakdown in copper and further weakness in oil doesn't portend well for the short to medium term.

Will be looking to add to physical gold and silver holdings if they really start to slide.
 
Just for balance and I can say I'm independent on this matter, I do not agree with the commercially motivated argument that an ETF like Lyxor is somehow inferior to certs with the Perth Mint. It is true that there is a default risk difference but for heavens sake the ETF has its gold in physical form held in HSBC bank in London so the point about counter party risk is hugely exaggerated. The above ETF is a regulated stock market instrument and the dealers are regulated stockbrokers. Dealing in physical gold or in Perth Mint certs is outside regulation as I understand it.

The ETF approach keeps getting pigeon holed by those promoting Perth Mint certs as for short term speculators but this is also highly questionable.. It is true that like all ETF's there is an AMC in this case 0.4% pa but what is failed consistently to be stated is the entry cost of 3% for the certs. That is very steep. In a flat market the ETF is cheaper than the certs for 7.5 years!!!. That's a big difference.

The ETF approach also allows I believe for more rapid processing of orders ie is less cumbersome. So lets have some balance please.
 
With oil on the backfoot dragging with it gold - where's the next short term stop for gold. personally hoping for it to maintain the $600+ level before its inevitable ascension to $700 plus.
 
Just for balance and I can say I'm independent on this matter, I do not agree with the commercially motivated argument that an ETF like Lyxor is somehow inferior to certs with the Perth Mint.
In the interest of disclosure I'll say the company I work for would have an interest in selling ETFs, but I'm commenting here on my own behalf and not for them. But just so you know.

I personally think that most investors look on gold as
a) A hedge against inflation or
b) A hedge against some chaotic event that causes paper money to become worthless
c) A speculative metal used by industry

For (a) and (c) it doesn't matter where your gold is held, or whether your investment even holds physical gold, as long as your investment moves in step with the market price of gold. I look at the brochures and don't understand why people are happy to know that their gold is stored in Ulan Bator or somewhere else you will never be able to see or hold it. Holding costs are just an expense (as are ETF/managed fund expenses and spreads). The same as if I buy sugar futures I couldn't care less which field it is growing in.

For (b) however you should hold physical gold in your own possession. This really is the Mad Max scenario, but I suppose it's not so long ago since the last world war.
 
I've put in sell orders on all my energy related shares, mining related shares and gold related shares (held in separate funds). Really wish I hadn't waited until January to do so. Just holding onto physical gold and cash.

Perhaps too hasty but the breakdown in copper and further weakness in oil doesn't portend well for the short to medium term.

Will be looking to add to physical gold and silver holdings if they really start to slide.

I think you are very foolish to try and be short termist in these markets. You either have to decide whether you buy into the commodities story or not. If you sell on weaknesses in the market then you will lose money, you are better off staying out of the market altogether. The markets are simply way over optimistic on oil prices right now. I was surprised that no account was taken of russia's row with belarus and the UNs decision to impose sanctions on Iran and Saudi Arabias decision to cut production. If this happened in June when oil prices were at their height it would have driven oil to over $85 a barrell. Markets go from pessimism to optimism to pessimism but the long term supply and demand situation is still the same, there is not enough long term supply to meet long term demand. Oil prices are political now and the oil producing countries can easily orchestrate a political event to drive prices back up again
 
I think you are very foolish to try and be short termist in these markets. You either have to decide whether you buy into the commodities story or not. the long term supply and demand situation is still the same, there is not enough long term supply to meet long term demand.

i couldnt agree more...the simple fact of the matter is the supply of commodities (base metals, oil etc) will not be able to keep up with the huge demand from china,india, pakistan etc...simple supply and demand....simple economics..demand greater than supply..prices go up.
 
In the interest of further informing and educating with regard to investing in gold. Money Week have recently published a comprehensive analysis of the many different ways to invest in gold.
It is entitled A Beginner's Guide to Investing in Gold and can be found at http://www.moneyweek.com/file/23315/a-beginners-guide-to-investing-in-gold.html


an interesting article on alternative gold strategies:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/david-potts/gold-plan-is-best-bar-none/2006/12/30/1166895516498.html
 
Re the previous post: "The ETF approach keeps getting pigeon holed by those promoting Perth Mint certs as for short term speculators but this is also highly questionable.. It is true that like all ETF's there is an AMC in this case 0.4% pa but what is failed consistently to be stated is the entry cost of 3% for the certs. That is very steep. In a flat market the ETF is cheaper than the certs for 7.5 years!!!. That's a big difference.

The ETF approach also allows I believe for more rapid processing of orders ie is less cumbersome. So lets have some balance please."


I am all for balance.
Let us get the facts straight though.

The ETF costs are not solely the 0.4% per annum compounded.
There are also stamp duty charges and broker fees.
And the ETF has the bid/offer spread which is generally some 0.20%.

With regard to counter party risk with regard to auditors and custodians - it is not as simple as the ETF having "its gold in physical form held in HSBC bank in London."

If you read the ETF's own prospectus there is a string of counter parties who are indemnified.
The prospectus states:
"Some of the risk factors listed in the prospectus are
· the loss, damage, theft or restrictions on access to the Trust’s gold
· the lack of adequate sources of recovery if the Trust’s gold is lost, damaged, stolen or destroyed, including a lack of insurance
· the failure of gold bullion allocated to the Trust to meet the London Good Delivery Standards
· the failure of sub-custodians to exercise due care in the safekeeping of the Trust’s gold
· the limited ability of the Trustee and the Custodian to take legal action against sub-custodians;
· the insolvency of the Custodian
· the Trust’s obligation to reimburse the Purchaser and the Market Agent for certain liabilities in the event the Sponsor fails to indemnify them
· the lack of experience of the Sponsor and its management in operating an investment vehicle such as the Trust
· competing claims over ownership of intellectual property rights related to the Trust "

These are not hypothetical risks.

This is evident from the fact that the World Gold Council, the sponsor of the StreetTRACKS ETF is being sued by Gemini Diversified Holdings. They accuse the World Gold Council of betrayal and stealing their idea. The lawsuit alleges that the WGC took the idea for an ETF and then developed a "suspiciously similar product."

Recently we have seen the world's largest energy trader, Enron, and the world's largest commodity brokerage, Refco, go bankrupt. Large respected institutions can and do go bankrupt with devastating consequences for undiversified 'investors'.

The Perth Mint has an AAA rating, the highest rating from Standard and Poor's (higher than any Irish bank) and has been operating as a mint since 1899. As it is government owned it means that the investors are indemnified by the citizens of Western Australian -the WA taxpayers. Whereas the private institutions involved in the ETF are indemnified from the ETF investors.
Slightly important distinction that.

With regards liquidity. Perth Mint Certificates (PMCs) are highly liquid and can be sold by simply signing a PM certificate and faxing it or electronically scanning it and emailing it to an Approved Dealer.

Let me be clear. If you are taking a short term punt on gold then the ETF, futures or spread betting is the way to go. However if you are diversifying your portfolio and hedging against geopolitical, macroeconomic or systemic risk then physical bullion in your own safe, physical bullion in a safety deposit box in a secure bank or depository or government gold certificates are a better way to go.

As a stated previously it need not be an "either or" proposition and ETFs for speculation and physical bullion and government certificates can both be in a properly diversified portfoilo.

We can all get along and peacefully coexist.
;-)
 
Ah c'mon give us a break from the hard sell. The entire world fund industry is based on custodianship and structures that are a carbon copy of the above. Prospectus are stuffed full of sim ilar warnings written in by solicitors much like those in public car parks.

While the points you raise a true they are a razor thin argument against the ETF and the introduction of some law suits and, God in heaven, Enron smacks of desperation.

In a global melt down scenario its true that the ETF might default but if that were to happen you can bank on the whole fund industry going with it together with travel, food etc and you'd have far bigger problems than trying to get on a sailing boat to Perth! You say both can coexist, we agree on that but if you continue to grossly overstate the ETF default risks you will continue to leave your argument open to valid criticism. The facts are that a buy in of 3% and bid/offer spreads for the Perth Mint certs is very pricey and the ETF nothwithstanding the fact that its not AAA but instead Stock Market regulated is good value IMHO.
 
Not sure who is engaged in the 'hard sell' here.

We have acknowledged and outlined the advantages and disadvantages of ETFs and PMCs and said that there are room for both in a properly diversified portfolio.

"The entire world fund industry is based on custodianship and structures that are a carbon copy of the above."
This is not true.
Conventional mutual funds or exchange traded funds are completely different from the new Gold and Silver ETFs as they do not have to take physical delivery of the underlying commodity or asset.
The StreetTRACKS Gold Shares and Lyxor Gold Bullion Securities have a combined total of almost 18 million ounces worth $11 billion. This must be taken delivery of, assayed, verified, audited, insured and stored.
Under no circumstances could it be claimed that the Gold and Silver ETFs are typical funds with the same 'carbon copy' 'custodianship and structures'.

I notice you did not address the fact that the ETF is more expensive than the PMC after less than the 7.5 years that you claimed before-
As we stated previously:
The ETF costs are not solely the 0.4% per annum compounded.
There are also stamp duty charges and broker fees.
And the ETF has the bid/offer spread which is generally some 0.20%.

Enron, Refco, LTCM, Worldcom or all massive corporate bankruptcies that happened and corporate bankruptices will happen again.
Amaranth one of the world's largest hedge funds recently went bust losing it's investors $6.6 billion.

An unsupervised young trader in Singapore in 1995, Nick Leeson lost US$1.3 billion in speculative derivative trading destroying his employer, the 233-year-old Barings Bank, which had Queen Elizabeth II as a customer.

This has happened before and will happen again.

It is not a hypothetical risk. Warren Buffet has warned of the huge proliferation of paper derivatives in recent years and calls them 'Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction'.
This is a reality which it is important to acknowledge.

Re being "stock market regulated". This is another red herring.
Gold Investments is regulated by the Financial Regulator.The Western Australian government runs the Perth Mint Certificate and thus one is investing in a gold certificate issued by the regulator (the government institution themselves).

Re your "global meltdown scenario".
A financial meltdown may be unlikely but in the same way that you having a very serious car accident is highly unlikely however it is important to have car insurance in the event of such an accident. Just in case.
Re your "sailing boat to Perth!" comment - it is a bit silly. Our clients have the option (unlike the ETF) of simply calling us up as they have done in the past and instructing us to airfreight their gold to them personally or to a depository such as VIA MAT International in London, Geneva or whereever they choose to store their gold. Switzerland is obviously a favourite in the global meltdown scenario.

Again we have advocated diversification in one's entire portfolio and also in the precious metals component of your portfolio so one is not dependent on any one investment, asset class, third party or institution and this includes having some gold in one's possession.

Gold like property has advantages as it is a tangible asset. In the same way that when one invests in property most people want to directly own their own property and not have it in a third parties name and be a creditor of that third party. One could invest in property through buying a property index but most peope see the advantages of owning the property outright themselves.

Gold remains the ultimate safe haven asset.

It is important to note that this is why every Central Bank in the world has massive reserves of physical gold bullion in their possession in their Central Bank vaults and not stored with third parties in Ulan Bator (as said by the sugar futures speculator) or with other custodians or third parties (not ETFs, futures or other paper derivatives that track the gold price ).
The Federal Reserve remains the world's largest holder with 8.5 tonnes of gold in their possession in Fort Knox.

Diversification across asset classes and not being dependent on any one investment or speculative vehicle is of paramount importance and this will become increasingly obvious in the coming years.

ps
Nick Leeson is now the general manager of Galway United football club.

It is a funny old rock and roll world !
 
Not sure where you get 8.5 tonnes held in Fort Knox.
Got this from Wikipedia:
"The United States Bullion Depository holds approximately 4,570 tons of gold bullion. This is exceeded in the United States only by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's underground vault in Manhattan, which holds approximately 5,000 tons of gold in trust for many foreign nations, central banks and official international organizations".
 
I think you are very foolish to try and be short termist in these markets. You either have to decide whether you buy into the commodities story or not. If you sell on weaknesses in the market then you will lose money, you are better off staying out of the market altogether. The markets are simply way over optimistic on oil prices right now. I was surprised that no account was taken of russia's row with belarus and the UNs decision to impose sanctions on Iran and Saudi Arabias decision to cut production. If this happened in June when oil prices were at their height it would have driven oil to over $85 a barrell. Markets go from pessimism to optimism to pessimism but the long term supply and demand situation is still the same, there is not enough long term supply to meet long term demand. Oil prices are political now and the oil producing countries can easily orchestrate a political event to drive prices back up again

I don't necessarily agree but I take your point. Good fundamentals for commodities do not justify holding on at any price (or indeed buying at any price). Best to sell some of your holdings after a large run-up and increase your holdings on weakness. Or dollar-cost average into a position over a longer time frame and avoid timing the market altogether.

I may have been more willing to weather the storm if my investments weren't held in Rabobank funds but they were and since I didn't fancy staying with Rabo for the longterm I converted to cash while I was still in profit.

I'll use this cash to invest on further weakness. Rare gold and silver numismatics look like an interesting bet because they are selling at quite a low premium over spot price at the moment.
 
Thanks Cole.
I meant some 8,500 tonnes.

Sure Ireland even had some 14 tonnes prior to giving it to the ECB when we joined the Euro.

The World Gold Council in this report 'The IMF and Gold' ( http://www.gold.org/studies/RS26Gold.pdf ) has a table on page 32 of the World's Top 20 Holders of Gold showing the US as holding 8137 tonnes of gold. While others contend it is some 8,500 to 8,600 tonnes. The problem is despite some public pressure there has been no audit of the US gold reserves in more than 50 years.

There are conflicting reports as to where this gold is stored whether it is in the subterannean vaults of the Federal Reserve in New York, Fort Knox or a combination.
Fort Knox sounds more interesting though - Goldfinger attempted to steal fifteen billion USD worth of gold bullion to finance the evil SMERSH. Sean Connery as James Bond has a great tussle with Oddjob in the vaults of Fort Knox and folied the dastardly villian Goldfinger.

According to http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/fort-knox-depository.htm
Fort Knox has 147.3 million ounces.

Bottom line is that the Federal Reserve, IMF, Bundesbank and the French Central Bank remain the largest holders of gold and the reason they maintain these huge reserves is to maintain full faith in our modern fiat paper currencies and protect against systemic and monetary crises as experienced as recently as in September 1992 on 'Black Wednesday' when the British pound crashed and Soros became the "man who broke the Bank of England".


 
Room 305 you mention lower price of semi numismatics. where do you buy small quantities and any guide to prices?
 
Room 305 you mention lower price of semi numismatics. where do you buy small quantities and any guide to prices?

Lots of reputable dealers selling single coins on ebay. Do lots of research to try and get a good price and buy graded - M65 or above for rare gold coins should facilitate easy resales.

Here's an article:

[broken link removed]
 
Agree with previous posters with regard to their being significant value to be found in semi numismatic and numismatic gold and particularly silver coins.

Today (15:21 GMT- 25-01-07) it is trading at $13.42 per ounce.

Silver is massively undervalued, even when compared to gold.
While nearly all commodities are now at all time record highs silver remains some 25% of its record high price in 1980 of $50 per ounce.

An excellent article explaining why 'the herd' has not realised the massively undervalued nature of silver can be found here
http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1169580045.php

Silver can be speculated on with silver mining stocks, futures, ETFs or spread betting.

For investment purposes, silver bullion can be bought in large Silver US Dollar Legal Tender Bullion Bags or with large silver bars in a specialist depository or in the Perth Mint Certificate Programme.

With regard to numismatics - 19th century and early 20th century Morgan Silver Dollars MS64 and MS65 are most popular and remain undervalued in numismatic silver.
 
Agree that silver is massively undervalued and can add leverage to gold investments (the two tend to track one another but silver is more volatile). However, could you clarify the tax position on silver bullion? I'd love to start buying 100oz bars but paying 21% VAT on it is more than a little off-putting.
 
Silver bars do attract VAT of 21% if imported into Ireland.

100 oz. and 1000 oz. silver bars can be bought and stored in depositories in the US, the tax free zone in Zurich airport or in unallocated or allocated accounts in the Perth Mint (avoiding VAT).

Silver in PMCP allocated accounts cost 2.5% storage charge per annum and small fabrication fee over the spot rate. Unallocated accounts do not have any annual fee or fabrication fee and are thus more competitive and for that reason most popular. Many go unallocated but intend converting to allocated should their be a large short squeeze and uncertainty in the precious metals and wider financial markets.

If you really want to take delivery of your silver bullion then large Silver US Dollar Legal Tender Bullion Bags can be imported into Ireland.
Due to their legal tender status they are VAT free.

These silver coins are US dollars, half dollars and quarters used as day to day currency in the US up until 1970 when all coinage became made of base metals.

The disadvantage of the bags is that they are very heavy (90% bags are 715 oz. of pure silver and weigh 795 oz.). Thus insured delivery of these bags is expensive at some €220 each way. The bag must be returned to a specialist depository to be resold. Thus they are not for investors looking for a return rather they are used as a permanent insurance or savings component of a portfolio.
 
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