The Gold thread

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... interesting gold article...

...not sure I would be keen to invest against this background

....any opinions,?

Very intriguing article. The price of Base metals is possibly being undermined for political reasons. I have to say that I'd be more in inclined to consider investing in Base metals now. Markets can only be manipulated for so long before fundamentals assert themselves, usually with a bang. I'm sure George Sorros would agree.
 
Gold has finally had its first weekly breakout (12 week) since the collapse in May...the 200 day moving is now moving up...and the weekly breakout is above the 200 day average.............so the long term trend is up:)
 
Hi,

Just a quick question - I have been lookin into buying gold coins prob from gold.ie - i think their the easiest to get gold from in Ireland - still up for opnions on that though

But my question is when I want to sell the coins - is there a big market in Ireland for the coins that people will want to buy the coins right away. Thats my only worry to having physical gold coins
 
i been trying to get rid of a few gold coins lately tried Spinks london and Mespil House Dublin never got a reply, seem they want to sell not buy
so it would put me off buying coins and such
 
But my question is when I want to sell the coins - is there a big market in Ireland for the coins that people will want to buy the coins right away. Thats my only worry to having physical gold coins

Assuming you are buying bullion coins I thought it would be pretty easy to sell them. In fact, is it not possible to simply Fedex the coins to gold.ie and they ring you upon receipt with an offer price based on the current spot price?

I'd ring them and see. Either bullion coins are probably the most liquid physical gold asset. If selling is a really big issue you could consider investing in a gold etf so selling will not be an issue.
 
ye im currently looking to buy EFT's through interactivebrokers (had to put down incorrect trading figures when applying - they wouldn accept my trading histoey)- but id like to get my hands on some physical gold - but i dont want to have problems selling it on when the time comes

What happens if I want to sell physical gold at the some time as everybody else -then im stuck with it

whereas EFT's you can get market value whenever you want to sell. I know there are pro's and con's with both methods
 
don't suppose anyone has any data on gold prices to say us inflation from '75 onwards.

want to do an econometric analysis on this,...what do you all think about, say:

gold = a + b.inflation + c.inflation(t-1) + d.gold (t-1) + oil + sp500 + error

anyone have any suggestions on this....or data to work through on it!....

will share results obviously.!
 
don't suppose anyone has any data on gold prices to say us inflation from '75 onwards.

What Gold Bubble...



want to do an econometric analysis on this,...what do you all think about, say:

gold = a + b.inflation + c.inflation(t-1) + d.gold (t-1) + oil + sp500 + error

anyone have any suggestions on this....or data to work through on it!....

will share results obviously.!

It's too late and I've drunk too much La Chouffe for any suggestions of mine... might be easier to google as much as you can first, there's bound to be something done already along a similar vein, save yourself some time and effort.
 
i think some of that information is available from the 'commodity research bureau'
http://www.crbtrader.com/

have a look at this chart for 3 precious metals..i dont think it is adjusted for inflation though....[broken link removed]
 
I did one a while back. Can't find where the gold price came from now but the inflation rate was from a US government site.

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Sorry about the odd hard-to-see colour.
 
doing some econ test on this looking at % inflation rate changes and m1,m2,m3

finding some unusual things, namely lagged effect of CPI and Betas quite low, M2 at t-1 is significant with an R^2 of about 6%

Most interesting thing is that there is a definite spilt in patterns and fitted line , 4 distinct periods. Not much going on in the 70's, eighties big time until oil crisis when the whole thing goes out the window.

Major trending in the data as is, and gold prices are definitely non-stationary.

Relationship not as strong as i would have thougt....

Not finished as just doing it in my spare time...for fun...how sad indeed.!
 
Good advice for entry point in the GLD ETF.

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I'm light bullion at the moment so I'm a buyer of gold all day long at prices <US$610. Thats the current 200 & 50 day moving average price. Here's hoping we'll see a brief post-Xmas sale!
 
I am one of the MD's of Gold and Silver Investments Limited.
I have been reading this thread intermittently over the weeks and have enjoyed it.


In the light of increasing demand due to
Record & Unprecedented US Trade, Budget & Current Account Deficits
Rising Oil & Energy prices
Overvalued Property Markets
Record Consumer, Mortgage and National Debt Levels in the US & much of the western world
Recently Rising Interest Rates in the US and globally
A depreciating and declining US dollar - the global reserve currency
Geopolitical Instability and 'The War on Terror'
Increasing Pensions Difficulties and the 'Demographic Timebomb'
Increasing global investor demand for safe haven assets & Central Bank demand for gold in order to maintain full faith and provide stability to currencies and monetary reserves

and decreasing supply:
Mine production is stagnating, many have closed down. It takes 10 - 15 years to take a mine to production.
Central banks sales have slowed and in some cases reversed.
High Energy prices making mining an expensive proposition
Environmental legislation stymies mine development
It is estimated that all of the above ground stocks of gold could fit into a 20 Meter high cube, it is very finite.

I am amazed that anyone remotely informed does not see the merits of diversifying at least some 5% - 10% of their portfolio to gold bullion or other gold related investments.

With regard to the best way to buy gold – it depends on your motivation as one’s motivation for buying gold is fundamental to helping one distinguish between and evaluate the various options available.
Are you a speculator, investor or saver? Do you wish to take a short term speculative position in gold? Are you investing for the short, medium or long term?
Or are you diversifying, saving or using gold as a form of permanent financial insurance?

If you are speculating and have a short term horizon and want to go long and short then go with the ETF. The ETF is a paper derivative that tracks the price of gold and one does not own the underlying physical asset ( thus it is akin to spread betting without the leverage involved) . Also the 0.4% to 0.5% per annum charges and stamp duty make the ETF ideal for short term speculators and not for investors with a medium to long term outlook.

If you are investing then the Perth Mint Certificate Programme is a superior vehicle as you get an AAA rated government gold certificate from one of the wealthiest states in Australia in your name and there are no ongoing annual administration or storage charges which will eat into the value of the investment over time.

Diversification is key and a little speculation on the ETF, an investment in the Perth Mint Certificate and bullion in an allocated account or taking possession of a small amount of physical bullion is wise.


Happy Christmas and a peaceful and prosperous New Year to All

 
gold got burned today to extend the fall over the last 2 weeks. the greenback has also recovered over the last couple of weeks. Don't bank on it hitting a new high anytime soon. holding gold pays no dividend, shorting gold/USD pays over 4%.
 
if you are a speculator and not an long term investor this may matter...in the long term it doesnt matter a monkeys..the 200 day moving average on my gold fund started rising a few weeks ago..it continues to do so now, and even after factoring yesterdays closing price.

gold in the long term is an excellent investment..as gold.ie, said on a proportion of your portfolio....
 
I see Mark Shipman (www.trend-follower.com) has just recently opened a long position on gold ;) ............his book is also an excellent read.

Given that he invests only when he is convinced an investment is in a strong upward trend this is interesting news indeed.

I have added to my own gold investments in recent days. Not sure if we have seen the bottom yet but reckoned based on current dollar weakness it could be close enough.
 
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