Interesting article by Michael Houghton in Indo re property investment Flies in the face of current sentiment
The main problem with his analysis is he assumes the property will rise in line with inflation. As he will own 5, he is a large LL. He cannot get vacant possession to sell, so the house will be sold on a yield basis when he wants to sell it. It will not sell at the same value as other vacant properties at that time.
The below goes through the numbers over the next 10 years. To simplify the calcs I assume he is an all cash investor.
Basically if rents increase by 2% per annum, but inflation increases by 5% per annum, in real terms the value of his house is down - alot.
Year1, 2026: Rent of 2,200 per month = 26,400 per year
Year10, 2036: assuming increases of 2% annually that can go up to 31,550per year (26,400*1.02^10)
Now, if he sells the house in 2036 at the same yield he bought it at (i.e. 8.8% (26,400/300,000)), he will get €358,530 for it in 2036 (31,550/8.8%)
The issue is that if inflation rises by 5% in the meantime,
then in real terms his principal is only worth €220,105 in todays money (358,530/1.05^10). But he paid €300,000 for it in todays money. He effectively has an asset that is reducing in value, and the income from that asset is also reducing in real terms.
Full table below, but the bottom line is the principal of the "investment" has lost significant value in real terms. I used 5% in the example as inflation has averaged 4.94% over the last 5 years (CPI index Table CPM01 Oct20-Oct25).