The Boris deal

cremeegg

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So the backstop is gone. In its place alternative arrangements involving NI being de facto in the Customs Union but de jure not in the Customs Union. Stormont to have a veto after 4 years.

What happens if Stormont votes against in 2026. Have we a hard border then.

I think Boris bluffed Leo off the pitch.

I hope I have misunderstood.
 

noproblem

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If Boris gets this voted for on Saturday, or whenever in the House Of Commons he will reap some benefit. On the other hand, if this fails our own Leo will certainly be left looking awfully silly indeed. His smugness after his so called triumphant meeting will come back to haunt him and his nearest and dearest.
 

odyssey06

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The backstop is now the cornerstone.

Saturday in the House of Commons will be epic.

At this stage without DUP I dont know how it gets enough votes but I dunno where we go next if it fails...
 

WolfeTone

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I can empathise with the DUP on matters of identity through flag-waving, loyalty to the Crown, GSTQ etc...but this VAT thing, are they really trying to say that UK VAT rates are fundamental to their identity?
Are they really saying that, an abstract border in the Irish sea, where nobody lives, and where nobody's working lives or businesses will face any potential disruption, is fundamentally a threat to their identity??

How insecure and inward looking do you need to be to be that fragile?
 

cremeegg

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Won't happen.

Pretty much can't happen, politically.

Leo/our senior civil servants have played a blinder.

it really doesn't matter whether Borris gets this through parliament on Saturday - he'll win the inevitable GE anyway.

It's all over folks. Our boys done good.
I hope you are right, but explain it for the slow learners anyway, what happens if Stormont votes against in 2026. And really anything can happen in NI politics
 

noproblem

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Won't happen.

Pretty much can't happen, politically.

Leo/our senior civil servants have played a blinder.

it really doesn't matter whether Borris gets this through parliament on Saturday - he'll win the inevitable GE anyway.

It's all over folks. Our boys done good.
Good luck with that logic Leo
 

Sarenco

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I hope you are right, but explain it for the slow learners anyway, what happens if Stormont votes against in 2026. And really anything can happen in NI politics
Ultimately, it's a political judgement about a part of the world that I happen to know pretty well.

Of course you're right - Stormont "could" legally agree to exit the arrangement. But the numbers will never be there. The hard DUP position will never win majority support in NI.

The funny thing about NI politics is that it is unusually predictable - the vast, vast majority vote along straight tribal lines (green/orange). And that breaks roughly 50/50.

The (at the very most) 10% in the middle will never, ever vote to exit this deal. Won't happen.
 

WolfeTone

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I agree with Sacrenco.
If this deal is passed, in six, twelve, eighteen months, nobody will be talking about different VAT, customs rates in NI. Certainly not the Remain parties. Certainly not the business and farming communities.
The only way it becomes a political issue once again is if DUP or Orange Order make it an issue. Considering the predicament the DUP finds itself in today this would be political suicide.
The 'cant be a border in the Irish sea' stance is the greatest hoax perpetuated on the people of Ireland and Britain for over a century or more. Nobody lives in the Irish sea, no communities potentially antagonised with border infrastructure, no businesses disrupted, no working people impeded at check points going about their daily lives.
The DUP already agreed that checks could occur away from the land border between north and south. Those checks would occur at air and sea ports, the very same place where Irish sea border checks will take place.
The difference? The GFA is honoured, the integrity of the SM preserved, and NI status within the UK maintained.

If this deal doesn't go through, Boris will sign the letter for an extension. He can spin it that his 'dead in a ditch' line was in the context of the backstop remaining as a condition of that extension.
He has got rid of the backstop for Britain, so if MPs dont seal the deal, an extension is asked for, but the EU can refuse, meaning 31st Oct remains the deadline.
An election is called, another request for an extension, an extension agreed to facilitate the election. The election will be about crashing out without a deal or accepting the deal , backstop removed.
If Labour say they can get a better deal they will be trounced. If Lib Dems say they will revoke Art 50, they will make some headway but not enough. The brexit vote will split between Tories and Brexit party, and I think, with the backstop for Britain gone, the DUP will see how precious the British people think their union with NI really is (ie not overly precious).

Boris will win, Britain out of EU, SM, CU.
DUP under a bus.

Then the fun can really begin.
 

Early Riser

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Of course you're right - Stormont "could" legally agree to exit the arrangement. But the numbers will never be there.
The reason the DUP are so annoyed at this deal is that they know that the numbers will not be there.

They wanted to keep their Stormont veto - not necessarily because they intended to use it (which would be highly unpopular among their own farmer/business supporters) but because they wanted the power that the threat of it would bring. That threat would keep them at the fulcrum of everything for the future.
 

elacsaplau

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Interesting commentary, WolfeTone

Part of me thinks the nice people in the DUP just needed to say NO one more time! Early Riser's points are probably much more on point.

If we take Betfair as an indicator of where things are now at, two points of note:

1. In relation to tomorrow's vote, in Betfair's notation, last night a No Vote was 1.6...……….right now, it's 1.15 (i.e. the market now ascribes a probability of 87% against a No vote tomorrow).

2. In relation to the next GE, whilst the Eton boys are 1.32 to get the most seats, it's 1.83 that there will be no overall majority.

I'm not sure where the money is to be made here? [Should I just take the not so patriotic 1.7 on offer for England/All Black double in the rugby instead?!…………..Read: I wouldn't be very comfortable laying that sporting outcome at those odds for any sort of serious money!]
 

noproblem

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2,141
What odds on England losing, All Blacks losing and Boris's deal to get through the Commons vote? You'll get a run for your money and maybe, just maybe????????????
 

Drakon

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703
Interestingly, in his Podcast on released Tuesday David McWilliams predicted more-or-less everything that occurred on Wednesday night:
Boris shafting the DUP
The Backstop being ditched
A border down the Irish Sea
NI kinda in and kinda out of the Customs Union
The EU ruling out a further extension (his opinions on this quite interesting)
Et cetera.
 

Drakon

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As for BerFair, on the night of 23/06/2016 between the poles closing and midnight, Leave was bouncing between 8.0 and 10.0.
That’s 7/1 to 9/1 in old money, or 12.5% to 10%.
The reality was 52%.
 

elcato

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3,423
nterestingly, in his Podcast on released Tuesday David McWilliams predicted more-or-less everything that occurred on Wednesday night:
Boris shafting the DUP
The Backstop being ditched
A border down the Irish Sea
NI kinda in and kinda out of the Customs Union
The EU ruling out a further extension (his opinions on this quite interesting)
Et cetera.
Wow, and he'll predict now that Christmas will fall on the 25th of December this year ...... you heard it first here folks
 

Early Riser

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791
Interestingly, in his Podcast on released Tuesday David McWilliams predicted more-or-less everything that occurred on Wednesday night:
Boris shafting the DUP
The Backstop being ditched
A border down the Irish Sea
NI kinda in and kinda out of the Customs Union
The EU ruling out a further extension (his opinions on this quite interesting)
Et cetera.
Tony Connelly was reporting this outline from Brussels last Friday - except the bit about the extension, which the EU have rowed back on now anyway.
 

Drakon

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703
Tony Connelly was reporting this outline from Brussels last Friday - except the bit about the extension, which the EU have rowed back on now anyway.
Really?
I was at a wedding over the weekend and hadn’t been watching RTÉ.
 

Alkers86

Registered User
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112
What was the possibility of there being another referendum in the UK, had the deal not been agreed? I think that would have been the most-favourable from an Irish / EU perspective?
 
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