Saigon All Over Again

[Duke of Marmalade]

Its quite nauseating really to read the casual nature of your justification for the deaths of tens of thousands, if not hundred of thousands of innocent civilians as a consequence of a fabricated war.

I'll put my name to a new law, before someone else corners it.
Marmalade Law
"The longer a thread gets, no matter the topic, the probability of the left seizing the high moral ground approaches 1"

I point out that your gloating that this humiliation diminishes American influence is misplaced and somehow you manage to pivot the debate (with my help, I admit) to discussing the morality of killing Iraqi civilians.

 

[joe sod]

I agree with @WolfeTone that the US influence in the world is severely damaged by Afghanistan. I think the big winner is not China but Putin because the Americans now have to be seen to be tough on China now whereas Russia can just sit back and enjoy the humiliation of the US 30 years after the Soviet Union was forced out. Putin spoke about it last week in a press conference with Angela Merkel, he referenced the failure of the Soviets in Afghanistan saying it is always a mistake to impose "strange types of governance" on foreign countries without regard to their political, religious and cultural history. He compared this failure with the failure of the "Arab Spring" and the chaos that ensued from that. In the Putin world view the US should not interfere in other countries once those countries do not cause trouble abroad even if they are undemocratic dictatorships. Therefore the US needs to tolerate the likes of Saddam, Gadaffi and Mubarek (remember Obama forced him out )
Obama himself has been very quite on this obviously he does not want to cause Biden any further embarrassment

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I agree with @WolfeTone that the US influence in the world is severely damaged by Afghanistan.

I asked the Wolfe to give me an example of this loss of influence.

Outside of Afghanistan, what does the US retreat signal to China, Russia and Iran? Surely it only gives them an opportunity to extend their influence in the region?

Well sure. It's a question of what one means by its influence being "severely" damaged, it has certainly been damaged so far as it extends to Afghanistan. Ironically, Iran, Russia and China in that order will be the most concerned by the American withdrawal; they are no fans of the Taliban and vice versa. Indeed by the twists of realpolitik that the Americans are so good at, they will end up as pals with the Taliban as predicted by Wolfie and Iran won't like that one little bit.
Anyway my main point is really not by how much American influence is or is not diminished but the extent to which a predictable constituency are gloating at the humiliation and way over stating its significance.

 

[WolfeTone]

I point out that your gloating that this humiliation

I would ask you to point out where I was 'gloating'?

 

[WolfeTone]

The longer a thread gets, no matter the topic, the probability of the left seizing the high moral ground approaches 1"

As opposed to those on the right who automatically assume the high moral from the outset by promising to bring freedom fries to the world.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I would ask you to point out where I was 'gloating'?

US foreign policy interventions using their military, and clandestine operations of CIA, have been an abject failure since WWII.

That is your mantra. Most people like to think that their mantra has been justified. But correct me if you are disappointed at the US humiliation or if you couldn't care less.

 

[joe sod]

Ironically, Iran, Russia and China in that order will be the most concerned by the American withdrawal; they are no fans of the Taliban and vice versa.

But surely Iran (yes no fans of the Taliban) know that the Taliban won't be strong enough to be causing them any problems now, they need to run a big country now and are going to need lots of money , that puts China in the crosshairs because then the focus of the US switches to China. From Iran's point of view "the great satan" has been removed from its borders which reduces the capacity or the threat of attack from the US from the Bagram airbase, what complete strategic stupidity by Biden.
The Russians wont be involving themselves in Afghanistan and Putin is also out of the US crosshairs because they need to focus on China. Putin more than anybody has been a master at negotiating the different politics and religions of the ME , he is on good terms with them all from Saudi arabia to Iran to Israel. The one big disadvantage the chinese have is that they have no history of involvement in the ME therefore the potential for them to make their own big mistakes is large

 

[WolfeTone]

That is your mantra

Well, correct me if I'm wrong.

But correct me if you are disappointed at the US humiliation

I'm disappointed in the interventions and disappointed that despite this abject failure I fear in a few short years the some other poor, much weaker, nation will become a target for unloading their stockpiles of weaponry.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

...a realisation our (Western democracy's) era at the top is drawing to an end and faster than we hoped, and there's not much we can do about it.

@WolfeTone you should read the article, you would enjoy it. You can skip past the piece where she has her ritual swipe at
the shinners.
Also

The Kabul fiasco may be a worrying reminder to Taiwan that a verbal agreement isn't worth the paper it is written on.

I don't agree but I see all this as wallowing in the humiliation not just by lefties who feel Tiocfaidh ár là but simply by journos who like to overcook the story.
Later in same article:

So is American global hegemony about to end?...In these circumstances like Mark Twain's death, rumours of Anerica's demise are greatly exaggerated.

Sorry @WolfeTone stick to Eilish' article.

 

[joe sod]

Many commentators are comparing this to Jimmy Carter and the Iran Hostage crisis which dragged on for so long and dogged his presidency with weakness. There is also the backdrop of high inflation and shortages in the US although not at 1970s levels yet they don't need to get to those levels to cause real problems. I think this sets the scene for a return of a Ronald Reagan type president after Biden's departure, the liberal dream of Harris after Biden looks dead in the water now especially if she has to take over mid term from Biden.

 

[WolfeTone]

I don't agree but I see all this as wallowing in the humiliation not just by lefties who feel Tiocfaidh ár là but simply by journos who like to overcook the story.

So basically there is general agreement across a wide spectrum of political opinion that the US occupation of Afghanistan has ended in humiliation. And what else could it be described as? The 'War on Terror' ends with the slaughter of innocents and 13 US Marines.
As for the wider implications, I agree, the demise of the US Empire is being greatly exaggerated on foot of this humiliation.
But damaged it has been.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Many commentators are comparing this to Jimmy Carter and the Iran Hostage crisis which dragged on for so long and dogged his presidency with weakness. There is also the backdrop of high inflation and shortages in the US although not at 1970s levels yet they don't need to get to those levels to cause real problems. I think this sets the scene for a return of a Ronald Reagan type president after Biden's departure, the liberal dream of Harris after Biden looks dead in the water now especially if she has to take over mid term from Biden.

Betfair have moved Harris out to 6/1 for 2024 Presidency, having been 4/1 favourite. Interestingly Biden has shortened a little and is now the 4/1 favourite.
But horror upon horrors, The Donald has come in from 10/1 to 5/1 second favourite.

 

[WolfeTone]

Donald Trump Jnr @ 200/1.
Ye heard it here first

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

So basically there is general agreement across a wide spectrum of political opinion that the US occupation of Afghanistan has ended in humiliation. And what else could it be described as?

I certainly agree with the consensus view that it was a humiliation. I do not subscribe to the wishful thinking of some (in the IT for example) that it is the beginning of the end for US influence.

The 'War on Terror' ends with the slaughter of innocents and 13 US Marines.

I hope you are apportioning the blame for this finale at the right quarters.

As for the wider implications, I agree, the demise of the US Empire is being greatly exaggerated on foot of this humiliation.

Call it empire if you like. We in Ireland are very much part of that "empire" and jolly glad for it. (at least most of us are)

But damaged it has been.

Yes, any countries looking to be freed from oppressive cultures and regimes will have had the only hope they ever had dashed. But countries, like Ireland, depending for our security on the hegemony of US power can still sleep easily at night.

 

[WolfeTone]

I hope you are apportioning the blame for this finale at the right quarters.

Islamic fundamentalists, seeing as you raised doubt.
My point is that 20yrs after the 'War on Terror' ends with one of the worst attacks on US personnel in years. This is very much part of the humiliation.

Call it empire if you like. We in Ireland are very much part of that "empire" and jolly glad for it.

Yes, any countries looking to be freed from oppressive cultures and regimes will have had the only hope they ever had dashed. But countries, like Ireland, depending for our security on the hegemony of US power can still sleep easily at night.

Dear Duke, being a beneficiary of US power and being part of the Empire of The Free World is all very good and very welcome.
But power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. What we have witnessed over the last 20yrs is not the pursuit of the American dream, it is the destructive malaise of that dream by a military industrial complex that has far too much power of the affairs of the great American people.
It's not a conspiracy theory, Eisenhower warned of it in his speech on leaving office. JFK alluded it to it in his speeches. And today we have a President that is ploughing through with a policy thst predecessor was derided for, 'America First'.
It is neither Trump nor Biden. Its a foreign policy of the Mic regardless of who is charge.

Now you maybe of the mind that US military might is a cornerstone of the freedoms and way of life we enjoy. I agree, but if it is corrupted and used to ill effect, at some point it will endanger the very entitlements it professes to protect and sustain.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Donald Trump Jnr @ 200/1.
Ye heard it here first

I think it would need daddy to become incapacitated, die or be killed. Not a 200/1 shot for sure. But I think in those circs the GOP would breathe a sigh of relief to be freed of Trumpism. I won't be having a piece of that 200/1.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Islamic fundamentalists, seeing as you raised doubt.
My point is that 20yrs after the 'War on Terror' ends with one of the worst attacks on US personnel in years. This is very much part of the humiliation.





Dear Duke, being a beneficiary of US power and being part of the Empire of The Free World is all very good and very welcome.
But power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. What we have witnessed over the last 20yrs is not the pursuit of the American dream, it is the destructive malaise of that dream by a military industrial complex that has far too much power of the affairs of the great American people.
It's not a conspiracy theory, Eisenhower warned of it in his speech on leaving office. JFK alluded it to it in his speeches. And today we have a President that is ploughing through with a policy thst predecessor was derided for, 'America First'.
It is neither Trump nor Biden. Its a foreign policy of the Mic regardless of who is charge.

Now you maybe of the mind that US military might is a cornerstone of the freedoms and way of life we enjoy. I agree, but if it is corrupted and used to ill effect, at some point it will endanger the very entitlements it professes to protect and sustain.

Hey, it ain't perfect. Better to be part of that empire than a Russian, Chinese or Islamic one. But of course we are a neutral country, we don't really mind who is in charge.

 

[joe sod]

Hey, it ain't perfect. Better to be part of that empire than a Russian, Chinese or Islamic one. But of course we are a neutral country, we don't really mind who is in charge.

or maybe Europe starts to exert its proper weight militarily , NATO is a paper tiger without the US, its definitely a big wake up call for Europe. Biden never bothered to inform his european allies of what they were doing in Kabul. The sheer size of the US military presence has meant that Europe has never bothered to equip and arm itself properly. What happens if break down in the ME starts spilling into the Balkans, the U.S. refuses to engage saying its your problem, you sort it?

 

[WolfeTone]

The terror continues in Afghanistan.

 

[Delboy]

or maybe Europe starts to exert its proper weight militarily , NATO is a paper tiger without the US, its definitely a big wake up call for Europe. Biden never bothered to inform his european allies of what they were doing in Kabul. The sheer size of the US military presence has meant that Europe has never bothered to equip and arm itself properly. What happens if break down in the ME starts spilling into the Balkans, the U.S. refuses to engage saying its your problem, you sort it?

The break up of Yugoslavia was supposed to be the wake up call for Europe. I wouldn't hold my breath on this one either