Thanks Duke. What about the wooly answer, don't they talk about stats with roulette colours and numbers and even/odd etc. If you 'divided' all bonds into tranches of whatever, wouldn't it be statistically arguable that the same tranches would be unlikely to come up more often than others. Happy for you to tell me I'm talking nonsense!
I reckon you should have had an average of 3 prizes. The probability of 0 prizes is 5%. Not impossible, but rather unlucky.100% agree with the above. My impression also, over the years of owning bonds.
I have 45K in three tranches for over a year and not even a sniff of a prize.
Time to cash in and reinvest.
Picking 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 is just as likely to win the Lotto as any other combination. If you win the Lotto this week, you have the exact same probability of winning it next week.
I haven't been in a PaddyPower shop since early March but I was always bemused by their regular lotto and roulette plays. The screens "helpfully" keep the punters posted on the numbers that are "hot" and those which are "not". It smugly amuses me to reflect that I know better, but then I start to think "and so does PaddyPower". The display of this information can only be targeted at those who erroneously think that it does matter - are we not veering towards offences against the trade descriptions Act or some such deception?This is why casinos display the history of the last 10 spins or so.
Absolutely, but the big further complication is that the chances of sharing are greatly influenced by your choice of numbers. Avoid birthdays. And avoid picking something like 1,2,3,4,5,6 Because there is likely to be maybe a dozen such guesses.Picking 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 is just as likely to win the Lotto as any other combination. If you win the Lotto this week, you have the exact same probability of winning it next week.
I've been thinking about that. If we imagine the populace consists of Birthday Suckers who chose their numbers from 1 to 31 and Smart Asses who chose their numbers from 32 to 47 there would have to be more than 100 times more of the former than the latter for my advice to be correct.Avoid birthdays.
As a sort of addendum to my post above, in 2014 I had just shy of 100K 'invested'.
For the first six months or so hardly a Friday went by without a win of €50, the odd time 2 X €50.
Overall about €150 pm if I remember correctly, but I do know that these prizes started to dry up somewhat
as my 'luck' dwindled..........
Anyway I withdrew the lot as I needed the funds and last year stuck in the 45K.
Now I know they have been slowly, but surely, decreasing the number of prizes, but I have to admit I am
somewhat dismayed that my 'luck' has deserted me totally.
Only for bad luck I'd have none at all.
The number of €50 prizes is a factor of the interest rate applying to Prize Bonds. In early 2015 the interest rate was 1.6%. Today it is .5%. So there has been a very significant reduction in the number of prizes available.