Prize Bonds are looking attractive alternatives to deposits

Navin Johnson

Registered User
Messages
12
Lol
Thanks for the info...
I did feel the person on the call couldn't be bothered...Maybe having a bad day....
So i rang the premium bonds people this am, took option 2, premium bonds, didn't mention that I was calling from Ireland, went through the whole process easy peasy the only potential issue was the uk bank account, but sure revolut solved that problem :cool:
thanks @Duke of Marmalade for the previous info.
 

Bocking14

Registered User
Messages
20
I had Premium Bonds, purchased when living in the UK and attempted to buy more when I returned to Ireland but it was not permitted.

That was in the mid-1990s though so perhaps the rules have changed since then?
 

Duke of Marmalade

Registered User
Messages
3,198
They're a bit confused about our status. They asked me was Dublin (my current residence) in the UK. I assured them it wasn't. However, my personal details have finished up as being "born in Belfast, Republic of Ireland" and my telephone number as +44 00353 xx xxxxxxx :rolleyes:
NS&I said:
Tax details
City of birth
BELFAST
Country of birth
Republic of Ireland
Tax country
Republic of Ireland
 
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Navin Johnson

Registered User
Messages
12
Sent off my proof of address today....credit card statement...

Clearly says Dublin, Ireland....

So I'll confirm...
 

Duke of Marmalade

Registered User
Messages
3,198
They're a bit confused about our status. They asked me was Dublin (my current residence) in the UK. I assured them it wasn't. However, my personal details have finished up as being "born in Belfast, Republic of Ireland" and my telephone number as +44 00353 xx xxxxxxx :rolleyes:
Won £75 (3 x £25) in my first monthly Premium Bond draw. That's a run rate of 1.8% p.a. on my £50k which is ahead of my expected run rate in £25 wins of 1.2%.
The bad news is that I have had a really bad run on my weekly Prize Bond draw which I reckon has now passed the 1 in a 100 possibility. The problem is that each Friday it is odds on to extend the losing run - the law of averages does not mean that I am due a win :rolleyes:
 

podgerodge

Registered User
Messages
791
Speaking of which, statistically is it better to have different tranches of these? I know that they all have equal chances, but is there a secondary statistical point that a spread of numbers is better?
 

Saavy99

Registered User
Messages
705
Speaking of which, statistically is it better to have different tranches of these? I know that they all have equal chances, but is there a secondary statistical point that a spread of numbers is better?

I was thinking about that. PTSB will only let me spend €2500 online in total every day so I bought mine in tranches over the course of a couple of months. In total I have 27 bonds containing a spread of different number.
I will keep thread updated as my winnings continue to accumulate throughout the year :cool:
 

podgerodge

Registered User
Messages
791
Thanks Duke. What about the wooly answer, don't they talk about stats with roulette colours and numbers and even/odd etc. If you 'divided' all bonds into tranches of whatever, wouldn't it be statistically arguable that the same tranches would be unlikely to come up more often than others. Happy for you to tell me I'm talking nonsense!
 

Duke of Marmalade

Registered User
Messages
3,198
Thanks Duke. What about the wooly answer, don't they talk about stats with roulette colours and numbers and even/odd etc. If you 'divided' all bonds into tranches of whatever, wouldn't it be statistically arguable that the same tranches would be unlikely to come up more often than others. Happy for you to tell me I'm talking nonsense!
Roulette is a good example. Manque represents the numbers 1 to 18. Clearly a concentrated tranche. Odd represents 18 numbers spread evenly over the 36. Red is yet another "random" collection of 18 numbers. Imagine you have a running bet on Manque, Odd or Red. Your outlook is exactly the same. If offered the choice you would have no rational basis for making that choice.
The long run statistical distribution of any of these three is the same bell curve centred on 50% (ignoring zeroes). There is no secondary statistical differentiator. Put another way the Roulette Wheel doesn't care what order the numbers are displayed on the Roulette Table.
 
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SPC100

Registered User
Messages
828
But is there any bias in the selection system/ algorithm used by prize bonds. Creating a truly random selection process is hard.
 

SPC100

Registered User
Messages
828
I never knew that!
Limit is £50k per individual (vs €250k)
The overall payout is 1.4% vs 0.5% (reflecting different interest rate environment)
The distribution is better with 1.2% being paid in £25 prizes
So let us compare £100k Premium Bonds vs €100k Prize Bonds
Premium: average 48 prizes of £25 p.a.
Prize: average of 7 prizes of €50 p.a.
So Premium Bonds offer both a higher expectation and a lower relative standard deviation of returns (14% vs 38%)

The exchange rate risk for an Irish resident has already been mentioned but if you have sterling liabilities or if you would like to diversify a bit the risk of a Euro wobble then Prize Bonds look attractive.

This post should probably be split and put as a key post.
 

Duke of Marmalade

Registered User
Messages
3,198
But is there any bias in the selection system/ algorithm used by prize bonds. Creating a truly random selection process is hard.
Oh, I don't think so. And if there was some bias it is impossible to know whether it favours a concentrated exposure or a spread one.
 

MugsGame

Frequent Poser
Messages
2,617
And if there was some bias it is impossible to know whether it favours a concentrated exposure or a spread one.

I agree a bias is extremely unlikely. But I did previously suggest a method for investigating this:

The winning prize bonds numbers are published for each draw. Do an FOI request to get the PBs entered in each draw, and then run some statistical tests to check the distribution is as expected.

This might not rule out very infrequent prize allocation errors, but should rule out significant problems or anything nefarious. Even PBs wrongly omitted from draws should be detectable with some assumptions (PBs are allocated in sequence so related PBs should enter the pool together, and PBs should not leave and re-enter the pool frequently).
 
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