Paddy Power giving 5/6 on Bitcoin being below $15,000 on Jan 1 2019

[fpalb]

I suppose so. BTW I am not having a go at you. I suppose the point is best illustrated by example. The price of tulips went stratospheric due to a speculative frenzy, but it was not justified on any fundamental basis.

I understand your question. regarding tulips there were perhaps some more concrete reasons why it would end, not least of all that tulips can be grown in basically endless supply to meet demand and flood the market over a long enough time frame.

The price of Apple shares has also had a spectacular trajectory. The earning prospects for the Apple company possibly justify that price performance.

Funny you mentioned Apple, as I also considered mentioning it in my original reply. I've never owned an iphone, in my opinion you have been able to get an Android phone that is both better and significantly cheaper for years now. To me personally the price of iphones is not justified, but I do not necessarily think that is unsustainable as other people value them more than I do , even if that is for what I consider to be illogical reasons. Apple is very profitable, and may continue to be, and I do own Apple shares.

 

[jman0war]

Bitcoin is like a victim of it's own success.
People in the space have long known it's not ready for 'prime time' due to scaling challenges.
The community has been talking, planning and coding scaling solutions since 2013.

The people driving bitcoin into the mainstream are aware of this, or should be aware of this; nevertheless keep pushing for things like bitcoin ETFs and push adoption.
Nobody is at truly the helm of Bitcoin, it's not like Ethereum or LiteCoin where there is a "benevolent dictator" that drive the direction, push marketing or can put the brakes on this or that.

Market forces should spur development in areas that value it.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Betfair has released a raft of new crytobets

These are odds on it falling below these prices at any stage.

"Will Bitcoin drop below $1,000 in 2018? This will be settled using coinmarketcap.com based on the USD"

So if it drops below $1,000 and rises again above that level by the end of the year, the backer still wins. I presume that they will win and be paid the day it falls below $1,000.

Brendan

 

[MrEarl]

Hello Mr. Burgess,

While I came in here wondering if Paddy Power might pay out early on your original bet, you've now caught my attention with these offerings from Betfair.

Personally, I don't see Bitcoin falling below €1,000 at any stage this year. While I don't dispute the very high volatility, or the risk of panic setting in some day and Bitcoin's price dropping a few thousand euro in value (even more than we've seen in recent times), I have a feeling that it would be supported if it went anywhere near €1k in 2018 (if we were talking 2-3 years time, that may well be a different story though, as I believe that Bitcoin is going to get left behind by other cryptos over the next couple of years).

The €5k bet is an entirely different matter however and perhaps worth consideration (I know this comment illustrates that I've lost some confidence in Bitcoin, since I posted in the prediction thread a while back btw)

Will you be putting money with Betfair and if so, on one or both of the above bets?

 

[Negotiator]

This is gonna be a very interesting thread to pop back to at the end of the year!

 

[Brendan Burgess]

I backed it yesterday when the odds were 7/5



Unfortunately, the maximum bet was only €145. Still it's like free money, although you have to wait a year for it.

I haven't looked at my Paddy Power account since this bet.

I am astonished that the account shows only the last 90 days. To go back longer I have to specially request it.

The bet is not settled yet. I had assumed it would have been done automatically at midnight, but apparently I have to wait until the traders approve it.

Brendan

 

[Brendan Burgess]

I got my statement, and had completely forgotten that I had got odds of 7/1 on Bitcoin being lower than $5,000 today. It's like finding a tenner on the foot path or in the pocket of an old suit.

I do remember now seeing those odds and lodging €1,000 urgently only to find the maximum bet was €30. I was disgusted and took out the balance shortly afterwards when I realised that they were not going to give those odds again.

Brendan

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

It's like finding a tenner on the foot path...

Not quite the same Boss. I presume you would hand the tenner into your local Garda station
Thanks for the PaddyPower tip off. I also availed of the max available on your advice just as I also shorted BTC on IG to make £1,500 which is life changing for humble duke. PP closed the offer down so fast that I think they lost track of the bets - I had to phone them to secure my £300 winnings

 

[domainer222]

Is there any other bookies offering this sport of market I wonder?

 

[Brendan Burgess]

No, but if you find one, let me know as soon as possible.

You can bet on betfair, but the odds are not attractive

Disclosure: I placed a small bet on the 2019 year end price a few days ago when the odds were a bit better.

Brendan