Paddy Power giving 5/6 on Bitcoin being below $15,000 on Jan 1 2019

Brendan Burgess said:
....But this is as close to free money as you are ever likely to get.

Brendan
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Happy New Year Mr. Burgess,

Never in my entire life, did I think the day would come when you would describe placing a bet as being "as close to free money as you are ever likely to get" :D

Between mention of Paddy Power and spread betting only a week or two earlier, I fear for what this alternative investment forum may be turning you into ;) :)



Getting back to the actual bet

It will be interesting to see if anyone else is interested in taking the bet, even with slightly revised odds, given some of the predictions on the future price of Bitcoin that we've seen in the other discussion thread.

Those who believe in their predictions may well fancy a small flutter.



.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
I backed it yesterday when the odds were 7/5



Unfortunately, the maximum bet was only €145. Still it's like free money, although you have to wait a year for it.

Brendan
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I just copped that 5/6 bet below $15,000. That means its 5/6 bet to be above $15,000?

Free money either way, until you do the maths!
 
Fella said:
all the chat about it in the world won't effect the lunacy of the price of this lego and ultimately if people want to start paying 50k for a piece of lego and everyone excepts thats the price then there is very little we can do about it.
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Agree that is the price but it's not the value. They are different things.

And I agree that there is a risk that the lunacy could get worse and I could lose my spread bet.

But I think where we differ is that at some stage the lunacy has to end. Bitcoin has to drop to zero. I would love to know the path and the timing. But I am very happy with a €135 bet that it will end up at zero this time next year. Even if the lunacy continues, it will be below $15,000.

Brendan
 
Fella it occurs to me that you are actually in the "bitcoin is lunacy" school along with the Boss and me. I hope you would agree that if bitcoin is lunacy that will eventually dawn on the market. Of course even those who are convinced that this is the case cannot call the timing of the bubble bursting. The Boss is not asserting that he will assuredly win his bet or that his short is a certainty, after all he has placed a stop loss. It's a judgment call. I would have thought the "bitcoin is lunacy" school would agree that the balance of probability is very much in his favour. (oops:oops: my post crossed with the Boss')
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Even if the lunacy continues, it will be below $15,000.
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Brendan,

You are making a very basic mistake here - confusing what you believe as highly probable with certain. In gambling, that can be fatal.

You cannot be certain that it will be less than €15k next year - that's just wrong.

As others have said, it's also wrong to describe your PPOW bet as "free money".
 
I'll take the BTC to zero bet anytime you like Brendan, you name the date.

If it's zero on that date I'll send you a grand, if it's not you post a photo of you wearing
 
Hi BK

Let's just clarify this. If it reaches zero, you will send me €1,000.

If it's above that, I have to post a picture of myself wearing the I love Bitcoin T shirt?

I'm on.

I will post it now, if you send the €1,000 now to a charity of my choice.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Hi BK

Let's just clarify this. If it reaches zero, you will send me €1,000.

If it's above that, I have to post a picture of myself wearing the I love Bitcoin T shirt?

I'm on.

I will post it now, if you send the €1,000 now to a charity of my choice.

Brendan
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100% - once Bitcoin reaches a price of zero. By any date, you name it.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Correct.

I can be only about 99% sure.

But the odds I got were 7/5 for a bet with a close to zero chance of losing.

As I said, like free money, but not quite free money.

Brendan
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These are the posts I really struggle with but if your 99% sure i'll offer you odds that be hard to turn down.

I'll lay you up to 100k euro at 1/10 on Bitcoin price above/below $15,000 on 31 December 2018

So to be clear you can win a max of 10,000
 
Fella said:
These are the posts I really struggle with but if your 99% sure i'll offer you odds that be hard to turn down.

I'll lay you up to 100k euro at 1/10 on Bitcoin price above/below $15,000 on 31 December 2018

So to be clear you can win a max of 10,000
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Why should he take those odds when he can get far better value by shorting in IG?
Fella said:
They should be shut down you don’t beat the market well there are a tiny % that do but do you really read posts from people on boards or motley fool etc and take them opinions?

I’m happy to believe in market efficiencies I don’t care what anyone on a forum think a share is worth it’s there for the masses to value , saves me time and it’s going to be correct far more often.
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Actually I'm with you there, I would never try to beat the market. But all the learned ones are saying this is a bubble, that is they are saying that this time the market is irrational. As a great believer in the market I don't think it will stay irrational for long, this is a very rare opportunity to exploit.
 
Well Duke it’s Free money for him , he’s 99% sure I’m not asking him to put the cash up front , I’ll show a screenshot of 10k I’ll transfer to a separate account , I’ll take Brendan’s word as he’s well known if he’s wrong he can sell shares or something to pay me I don’t mind. In his mind 99% of the time he will never have to pay me , I think I’m been fair 1/10 on a dead cert and he can have it on Credit .
 
TheBigShort said:
Im more intrigued with the call for the date. Anyone following bitcoin will be aware of its volatility. Also aware of its 9yr bull run.
Im guessing anyone can guess its price will fall, but its the timing of the call im intrigued with.
Afterall PP is effectively calling it 50:50 (excluding their cut), what insight do you have to call it 99% certain?
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I think you misunderstand the role of a bookie. It is not to stake his judgement against the populace, is to try and strike the balance in the populace so as to make his cut. Brendan and I bet €145 each at 7/5, maybe others were in as well, all the same it was pretty easy to get PP to make a fairly dramatic change from 7/5 to 5/6.
 
BreadKettle said:
I'll take the BTC to zero bet anytime you like Brendan, you name the date.

If it's zero on that date I'll send you a grand, if it's not you post a photo of you wearing
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I want a peice of that action too !!!
 
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Fella said:
Well Duke it’s Free money for him , he’s 99% sure I’m not asking him to put the cash up front , I’ll show a screenshot of 10k I’ll transfer to a separate account , I’ll take Brendan’s word as he’s well known if he’s wrong he can sell shares or something to pay me I don’t mind. In his mind 99% of the time he will never have to pay me , I think I’m been fair 1/10 on a dead cert and he can have it on Credit .
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Fella,

This is a wonderful offer for Brendan given his 99% certainty and that he can't get enough action with Paddy Power.

You have first mover advantage but I'll be happy to replicate your odds if Brendan wants to put any amount of additional money where his mouth has been.

I will not replicate your terms, however. Anyone who misunderstands betting and probability as much as Brendan could get themselves into a lot of trouble and may, very well, not have the readies this time next year. Add in a complete inability to acknowledge alternate views and you arrive at a dangerous place indeed.

On multiple occasions, Brendan has said he doesn't know when the BTC bubble will burst (only that it will, for sure, burst at some stage) - we are now to believe that "no idea when it will burst" magically translates to a 99% probability of it being less than €15k by the end of 2018.:rolleyes:
 
Fella said:
I'll lay you up to 100k euro at 1/10 on Bitcoin price above/below $15,000 on 31 December 2018
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Hi Fella

I don't think you should be placing €10k at 10/1 on. You could win €100k, but you are much more likely to lose your €10k.

But it's a mad market and there are much better odds available for the seller.

If I want to risk €100k , I would sell 5 Bitcoin for $90k and close out the position if Bitcoin rises by $20k.

If Bitcoin crashes to zero, I collect $90k - but I will probably close the position earlier to collect my winnings.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
I backed it yesterday when the odds were 7/5



Unfortunately, the maximum bet was only €145. Still it's like free money, although you have to wait a year for it.

Brendan
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Thanks Brendan,
I may just open an account for this myself.
The odds seem extremely generous. The odds are close to even. I would bet :p that if you offered 100 people the option to bet whether Bitcoin would be worth more or less that 15k at the end of 2018 the majority would say less.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
I backed it yesterday when the odds were 7/5



Unfortunately, the maximum bet was only €145. Still it's like free money, although you have to wait a year for it.

Brendan
Click to expand...

Surely you can avoid the max bet by going around to a load of bookie offices and placing the same bet many times.
 
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