Paddy Power giving 5/6 on Bitcoin being below $15,000 on Jan 1 2019

Brendan Burgess

Founder
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54,801
I backed it yesterday when the odds were 7/5



Unfortunately, the maximum bet was only €145. Still it's like free money, although you have to wait a year for it.

Brendan
 
How can you say it’s like “Free money” I think you have a valid case on a lot of things but even if we know Bitcoin will crash you can’t predict when , this is nothing like Free money and it’s highly likely you just lost 145€ I think you should be more mindful of your postings and stop encouraging others to gamble.

I don’t understand how you can stop people speculating on share prices but this is ok ?
 
Hi Fella

The maximum bet is €145 so even if I am wrong, the most anyone will lose is €145.

I would not encourage gambling, but this is a once in a lifetime event. People are paying $14,000 for something which is of no value whatsoever.

But you are right. The lunacy might last more than another year and people would lose their €145.

But this is as close to free money as you are ever likely to get.

Brendan
 

I’ve introduced a lot of people to gambling , I had a very good accountant friend who wanted to copy some bets , he started only copying my bets but I found out years later he had lost in excess of 100k and his marriage broke down , I felt partially responsible as I showed him how to lay bets on Betfair .

Gambling is a serious addiction a certain
percentage of people don’t know when to stop and can’t stop I don’t think your acting responsibly with your posts on Bitcoin , you have absolutely no advantage , you wrongly think you have an edge here and want to profit from it even though there is no way to profit even if you turn out to be correct eventually. You are placing bad Bet after bad Bet in what seems like a stubborn way.

Do you really think there are people in IG markets who don’t have the same opinion as you , Bitcoin is worthless, of course there are bit they are making money off you not off Bitcoin , you are the mug here placing that bet at IG markets with a 120 point spread and other costs that is a mug bet , it has no advantage and a negative expected return , stop the nonsense there is no way to profit from this if there was others would be doing it that have much bigger bank rolls.
 
Hi Fella

I have to disagree with you on this one.

You and I might disagree over the right odds for a horse race tomorrow or the correct value of Ryanair shares.

But Bitcoin is worth nothing but there are people prepared to buy it from me for $14,000

This is a really rare, once in a lifetime opportunity. I can get $14,000 for something which is worth nothing.

Of course there is a risk. The risk is that the madness continues for longer than I expect and the price rises beyond my threshold which is $34,000.

But it's not like introducing your friend to Betfair.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
But Bitcoin is worth nothing
Click to expand...

This is where you are wrong and you can’t seem to get your head around it , everything is worth what the market is prepared to pay for it , you can’t change that , Bitcoin is worth what the market says it’s worth. If people are willing to pay 14000 for it then that’s what it’s value will be , there is nothing you can do to devalue trying to convince others it’s worth nothing doesn’t help. If people accept it as been worth something it will continue to be worth something .

Why can’t you get your head around that ?
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Hi Fella

Discussed at length here:

Why Bitcoin has value

Brendan
Click to expand...


There are too many threads and posts on Bitcoin to read them all , I don’t believe in Bitcoin but one thing I can say categorically is YOU ARE WRONG , you continue to say Bitcoin is worthless it’s not it’s worth 14,000 , if it was worthless it would cost 0 it doesn’t you might be right some day but today if you want to buy one Bitcoin it doesn’t cost 0 so your wrong. That is a fact we can’t get away from we can argue about Blockchain nodes Gold and whatever else we want till we are all blue in the face , you can post fancy tulip graphs and quote Warren Buffet nothing changes the fact that you are wrong , if you want to buy 1 Bitcoin it costs 14,000 if you want to sell one you can get 14,000 for it , if someone offered me 1 Bitcoin now for 1,000 with the condition I’d have to hang onto it for x months I’d likely get involved , a market has formed and people are accepting it as a value at this moment it has a value , you can come on every thread and say it’s worthless but it’s one of the only things that is fact in all the postings that it’s actually not .
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Still it's like free money
Click to expand...

Whatever the appropriate term for the strongest possible disagreement, I would like to employ it here!

I mentioned previously, Brendan, how your comments lack sufficient "measure" - this is another prime example.

At the outset of this debate, you said that you were an investor and not a gambler and also that you were not used to assessing such gambles. It seems strange to me that you now feel you are in a position to give gambling advice to Fella (of all people).
 
Hi Fella

This is why people exchanged tulips for houses. Some saner people said that the tulips were worthless, but Dhr Fella said no that a single tulip bulb was worth the house because the guy with house was prepared to give away his house for a tulip.

Some tulip.

I want to help people to avoid paying $14,000 for a bag of air. If people like Shortie and fp own a few bags of worthless air, I would like to encourage them to realise their profits.

If others who can afford the potential losses want to avail of this once in a lifetime opportunity of doing the equivalent of paying a tulip and gaining a house, I would like to help them to discover how. And if they can help me, as Duke has, to understand the spread betting better, then I really appreciate it.

Brendan
 
Just because you shout does not mean YOU ARE RIGHT. No one is denying that people are paying the amounts which we see on the trading screens. If you want to define value as what people are paying right now well then by definition you have made yourself right.

The thread Why Bitcoin has Value wouldn't have been opened if the definition was as you state. One line would have provided the answer. Instead fpalb helpfully gave a very comprehensive reply to the topic's question.

Fella I know you are red hot on the football bets but WADR fpalb leaves you (and the rest of us for that matter) for dead when it comes to bitcoin. You think the answer to the question is a one liner, I'll go along with fpalb's much more comprehensive answer, if that is okay with you.
 

But Duke I am 100% right , if you gave me 1 Bitcoin now I could sell it for 14,000 and lodge 14,000 into my bank account , so was the Bitcoin worthless or was it worth something?

I never claimed to be an expert on Bitcoin or red hot at gambling , I shout out of frustration that Brendan constantly says Bitcoin is worthless.
If he said Bitcoin will be worthless that is different but no matter what anyone on askaboutmoney says it doesn't change the fact that as of now as I type this Bitcoin is not worthless if I have Bitcoin in my possession I can exchange it for actually currency and then use that currency to buy something , so as I type this nothing else matters , thats my frustration we can argue about the future value all day long but Brendan's comments are made in the present tense and are factually incorrect .

I don't have to know every micro detail of Bitcoin or read up on nodes or fpalb's excellent comprehensive answer to tell you the market values Bitcoin at 14,000. That is its value now.

I bought 5k worth of Foreign and Colonial shares the other day , I once looked the amount of companies they have invested in its thousands , I don't care what they are invested in really , I believe in letting the markets value themselves , someone could write a big long post on why I shouldn't invest or why I should invest in F&C I don't really care there will be counter arguments on each side but eventually the market will put a value on it. I am sure there are 1000's of experts like fpalb on each side of Bitcoin but it means nothing , the market has agreed on its value and debates are pointless.
 
That really is semantic. There is no debate at all that bitcoin is currently trading at the levels it is. Everybody knows what Brendan means when he says it is worthless. If you offered him a bitcoin he would bite your hand off

This site does not as a rule discuss share prices. But many sites do have such discussion. If we all took the stance that you take, namely that the share is worth exactly what the market says it is worth, all those sites would shut down.
 

They should be shut down you don’t beat the market well there are a tiny % that do but do you really read posts from people on boards or motley fool etc and take them opinions?

I’m happy to believe in market efficiencies I don’t care what anyone on a forum think a share is worth it’s there for the masses to value , saves me time and it’s going to be correct far more often.
 
If you can get better odds than Betfair lay odds you will finish up , it’s one of the fundamentals I learned early on in gambling. We actually had a post on an old gamblingtimes forum ill try find it think it was called “should I lay arbs for profit “ or mug all value bets , over thousands of bets nobody was down and most where up the average price advantage over Betfair Lay odds , market efficiency works very very well , there are thousands of forums discussing gambling no need , Bet above Betfair lay odds and you’ll finish up , discussion over I tell people it’s true it’s simple and it works .
 
Very rare these days. Maybe round Cheltenham time bookies are giving sweeteners which really are value bets but for very limited stakes. Anyway better avoid a topic fork.
 
Fella

Can I ask you what you think the price of Bitcoin will be in one year?

And fair enough if you have no opinion on it.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Fella

Can I ask you what you think the price of Bitcoin will be in one year?

And fair enough if you have no opinion on it.

Brendan
Click to expand...

I have no idea what price it will be.

We are largely singing from the same hymn sheet , this could be a block of lego selling for 14,000 I'm with you its ridiculous but neither myself or yourself can predict how high this block of lego will rise to , all the chat about it in the world won't effect the lunacy of the price of this lego and ultimately if people want to start paying 50k for a piece of lego and everyone excepts thats the price then there is very little we can do about it.

My point is largely that it has gone to market now the option is there to short sell it or buy it on large exchanges I would have expected the price to collapse after the option was there to short it on large exchanges but it hasn't really, it has a value like anything else on an exchange , we may not agree with that value but thats the current accepted price for this lego block. We can't profit from it even if we know ultimately the world will come to its senses and see it for what it is.

Would I pay 1,000 for a piece of lego now with the condition I had to hold it for a year , yes probably so I'm part of the madness , there are going to be enough believers now that if Bitcoin falls they will buy it back and hold the price up , it seems like normal market forces at work here.

I have nothing against you or your site but Bitcoin is worthless comment gets to me , we don't know when this lunacy will end or if it will even ever end , I won't ever be getting involved in it .
 
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